Bull market action still on point

Briefing.com Summary:

*Sliding oil prices have helped fuel buy-the-dip interest.

*The March Trade Balance was a sign of things to come, with exports picking up.

*Treasury yields have perked up and will be attentive to a batch of economic data today.

The major indices lost ground on Monday, as oil prices climbed on rising anxiety about a renewed escalation of military action between the U.S. and Iran. It was as good an excuse as any for why the market sold off, but the more simple fact of the matter is that the indices were overbought on a short-term basis and due for a pullback.

In other words, market participants weren’t as concerned about the price of oil, as some media sources reported, as they were about the parabolic shape of the rally off the March lows. Those concerns, be they oil prices or overbought conditions, aren’t on this morning’s registry.

What’s on the pre-open checklist is the following:

• A Pavlovian instinct to buy on yesterday’s weakness (check)
• Gains among the mega-cap stocks (check)
• Sliding oil prices (WTI -3.2% to $103.12/bbl) on the back of a report that a Maersk ship made it through the Strait of Hormuz with U.S. military protection; and President Trump refraining from declaring Iran in violation of the ceasefire agreement (check)
• A preponderance of better-than-expected earnings reports from the likes of Palantir (PLTR), Pinterest (PINS), Pfizer (PFE), DuPont (DD), and Duke Energy (DUK) keeping participants focused on the impressive earnings growth
• Trade data for March that had a good growth hue of rising exports and rising imports (check)

Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up 30 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 198 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 165 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value.

Based on these indications, it will be a higher open that reclaims most, if not all, of yesterday’s losses for the major indices. That is on point with bull market action, so the upset today, if there is to be one, would be a reversal of the early strength on no news of note.

An eye will be cast to the Treasury market, which has seen yields perking up on inflation concerns, for a potential trend change. The 10-yr note yield has been flirting with 4.50% in recent sessions, while the 30-yr bond has eclipsed the 5.00% threshold. They are at 4.42% and 5.00%, respectively, this morning, down slightly from yesterday’s settlement levels with a batch of economic data on the way.

The early report featured the March trade deficit, which widened to $60.3 billion, as expected, from a downwardly revised $57.8 billion (from -$57.3 billion) in February. The widening was the result of exports increasing $6.2 billion more than February exports and imports increasing $8.7 billion more than February imports.

The key takeaway from the report is that it has yet to fully capture the pickup in crude oil exports from the U.S. that has been driven by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. That pickup should be considerably higher in the next report and a boon for Q2 GDP growth forecasts.

Other economic reports today include the final S&P Global U.S. Services PMI for April at 9:45 a.m. ET, the April ISM Services PMI at 10:00 a.m. ET, the March JOLTS – Job Openings Report at 10:00 a.m. ET, and New Home Sales for February and March at 10:00 a.m. ET.

In the meantime, the major indices will be marching on, as they typically have following a loss, with buy-the-dip interest restoring order.

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Originally Posted May 5, 2026 – Bull market action still on point