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Mr. Market Sez: “Don’t Worry, Be Happy”

Mr. Market Sez: “Don’t Worry, Be Happy”

Posted August 19, 2024 at 1:19 pm
Steve Sosnick
Interactive Brokers

(Today’s musical accompaniment is rather obvious, no?)

The question that I’m most often asked lately involves the rapid rise and fall of the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) over the past two weeks. I was asked it early this morning (at the 8:25 mark of this audio) and on Friday afternoon (at the 39:25 mark of this video). My answers usually hinge upon the fact that VIX is not designed as a “fear gauge”, but instead measures the “30-day expected volatility of the U.S. stock market.” Considering the events that are due in the coming 30-day period – the “known unknowns”, so to speak – the low VIX tells us more about how sanguine investors are about them.

Please tell me if you think that any of these events might have the ability to meaningfully change the market’s mood or direction:

                  August 23rd: Fed Chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole

                  August 28th: Nvidia (NVDA) earnings

                  August 30th: Core PCE

                  September 6th: August Nonfarm Payrolls and Unemployment

                  September 11th: CPI

                  September 12th: PPI

And by the way, as of today, this minor event is within 30 days:

                  September 18th: FOMC Announcement

Throw in the fact that liquidity often suffers around the end of the summer and that September is a seasonally difficult month – the 10-year average return for the S&P 500 (SPX) is -1.19% – and it does seem interesting that volatility assumptions have ebbed substantially.  Bearing in mind that the last two Septembers have been treacherous -19.55% (2022) and -11.86% (2023), it seems short sighted for investors to price SPX index options so that the VIX index that is derived from them is only 14.70 right now.  

But there is another factor that is pressuring VIX. On July 8thwe pointed out that certain correlation measures were at all-time lows, and that those low correlations along with high dispersion readings were suppressing index volatility overall. Our timing was auspicious, because even though the Cboe 1-Month Correlation Index (COR1M) dropped even further in the following week, VIX didn’t follow, and instead turned higher shortly thereafter. That rise culminated with the events of two weeks ago.

And now…. We’re back. After spiking on the unwinding carry trade madness, correlations have since plunged. They’re not back to early July lows but are indeed back to the low levels that preceded them. Meanwhile, the Cboe Dispersion Index (DSPX) remains near its recent elevated levels. 

5-Years, VIX (magenta), COR1M (white), DSPX (blue)

Source: Bloomberg

In short, investors and traders have quickly returned to the playbook that has been working so well for them for the past several months: buy megacap technology stocks, add in some periodic enthusiasm for the rest of SPX and the Russell 2000 (RTY), and don’t bother hedging. (Why hedge when every dip is a short-term buying opportunity, right?)  

But I made this comment recently, and I can’t shake the idea that there is more to it than an old adage:

My concern is that [investors have] been rewarded for following the first part of Warren Buffett’s mantra about being greedy when others are fearful but they might not be so much following the second part about being fearful when people are greedy.

Remember, the guy that the quote referenced just sold half of his huge Apple (AAPL) and is carrying a record amount of cash. But don’t worry, be happy – at least for now.

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4 thoughts on “Mr. Market Sez: “Don’t Worry, Be Happy””

  • Laszlo

    Fully agree, I like to read your daily

    • Interactive Brokers

      We hope you continue to enjoy Traders’ Insight!

  • Hydy Ho

    I always read Steve with my underlying suspicion that he is a “closet bear”. Could it be because bear moves usually come fast and hard and if you are on the right side of a bear move, the profits roll in quickly. I suspect Steve has taken advantage of a few of those during his trading days!

  • Ben

    I agree there is a lot of policy risk with central banks. Japan and the US don’t seem to be as in sink as they were a few years ago. It’s possible unemployment drops from the high of 4.3% because of Houston hurricane issues. This could delay rate cuts during a political cycle. Nvidia is getting too expensive to best their blowout earnings and guidance raise.

    A calendar put spread could be useful.

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