Weekly Market Recap Week of March 30, 2026

The week in review

• Flash global PMI Mfg./Services: 52.4/51.1
• Import prices rose 1.3% m/m vs. 0.6% exp.
• Initial claims edged higher to 210k

The week ahead

• Unemployment rate
• Nonfarm payrolls
• Retail sales

Thought of the Week

For markets, the first quarter has felt like déjà vu. Just like last year, the quarter was marked by sharp swings; only this time, it was the war in the Middle East, not tariffs, keeping investors on edge and volatility elevated. That said, both episodes fueled the same concern: upside risk to inflation, and that has weighed on returns.

Looking at performance across asset classes in 1Q26, all but commodities have shed gains since the war broke out in late February. Within equities, valuations corrected across the board, but U.S. large cap struggled in particular, dragged lower by the Mag 7 (-15%) as concerns grew over the payback from ever-increasing AI capex. Small cap fared better, as investors continue to expect a sharp acceleration in earnings growth. Internationally, emerging markets continued to outperform developed market peers, led by markets such as Korea and Taiwan that are benefiting from AI-related capex. Turning to fixed income, yields rose roughly 35bps since the start of the year, weighing on returns as near-term inflation concerns again came to the fore, driven largely by higher energy prices. Commodities, meanwhile, stood out as the best-performing asset class, though with wide dispersion — energy gained as oil prices surged nearly 75% year-to-date, while precious metals lost steam.

Last year’s rocky start faded quickly, with markets finishing strong — a reminder that in markets, winters are often short and summers long. Therefore, investors would be wise to use the recent dislocations in the market to position portfolios for structural growth themes that are likely to persist long after the conflict in the Middle East is resolved.

Chart of the Week: Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, MSCI, NAREIT, FTSE
Russell, Standard and Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data
are as of March 27, 2026.
Thought of the week: Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, MSCI, NAREIT, FTSE
Russell, Standard and Poor’s, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data
are as of March 27, 2026

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Originally Posted March 27, 2026 – Weekly Market Recap

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