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Posted January 5, 2026 at 10:15 am
The cryptocurrency crowd raised the odds of a U.S. military strike on Iran in the wake of the successful operation in Venezuela.
The probability that the U.S. will strike Iran by Jan. 31 rose from 10% to 18% in the last 24 hours on Polymarket.
Similarly, the odds that such a military action happens by the end of March increased to 28% from 21% the day before. The likelihood of a strike by June 30 has risen to 35%, the highest of all outcomes currently.
Nearly $700,000 has been wagered on the outcome. The market resolves to “Yes” if the U.S. initiates a drone, missile or air strike on Iranian territory, including its embassies and consulates.
Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), has faced criticism in the past for launching betting events that aim to profit from conflicts and wars.
Meanwhile, a disclaimer on the Polymarket’s website reads, “After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and X could not.”
The spike in odds comes after the U.S. struck Venezuela during the weekend and toppled President Nicolás Maduro’s regime.
Earlier this week, President Donald Trump cautioned Iran against rebuilding its nuclear program, stating that the U.S. was aware of Iran’s activities and could launch another major strike on the Middle Eastern nation.
Iran has also been battling with an internal crisis, with shutdowns triggered by escalating protests severely impacting businesses, educational institutions, and government offices. Trump said that the U.S. would come to the “rescue” of Iranian protesters if the regime resorts to violence.
Iran has warned that any U.S. intervention could lead to “destabilizing the entire region.”
Last year, Iran became entangled in a major confrontation with Israel that later saw the U.S. join in to bomb the sanctioned nation’s nuclear facilities.
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Originally January 4, 2025 – Trump’s Venezuela Strike Raises Odds Of A Broader War With Iran In Crypto Betting Market
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