Singapore’s February Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, scheduled for this Monday, is likely to reflect that cost pressures have remained contained. The Refinitiv consensus expectation projects a 0.9% year-over-year (y/y) increase, which would mark a notable deceleration from 1.2% y/y in January. Interest rates in the island country declined last month in light of slowing economic conditions and lighter inflationary forces, with the yield on 10-year government debt dropping from 2.90% on February 3 to 2.74% as of March 3. Considering the disinflationary winds while also keeping in mind that this series is volatile and could mark a surprise, I like the “No” answer to the ForecastTrader Contract asking, “will the year-over-year change in the Singapore Consumer Price Index exceed 1.4% in February 2025?” The “No,” priced at $0.68, offers a favorable risk/reward profile, in my opinion. Furthermore, if costs jumped last month, “Team No” still wins as long as prices didn’t climb more than 1.4% y/y.
Source: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are as of the morning of March 21, 2025.
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