With the presidential election just hours away, Vice President Kamala Harris’ odds of winning the Oval Office have improved, but former President Donald Trump is still expected to win, according to IBKR Forecast Trader contracts. Harris’ chances of winning hit an all-time low of only 35% just a week ago, but then ascended to 54% intraday during the weekend on the contract asking, “Will Kamala Harris win the US Presidential Election in 2024?” Contracts today point to a 46% likelihood.
Swing States Favor Trump, However
Meanwhile, the scramble for electoral votes points to a wider path for former President Trump, as he leads in 5 of the 7 pivotal swing states, according to IBKR Forecast Traders, but the race remains a dead heat. Among non-toss-up states, Real Clear Politics, a polling aggregator, points to Harris having 211 electoral votes while Trump has 219, illustrating the importance of the Vice President winning the traditional blue wall consisting of the following states and their electoral votes:
- Pennsylvania, 19
- Michigan, 15
- Wisconsin, 10
Forecast Contract traders depict as Harris having only a 42% chance of taking Pennsylvania, but for Michigan and Wisconsin, the IBKR platform points to Harris having 63% and 56% odds, respectively, of victory.
Source: ForecastEx
North Carolina and Georgia, with each having 16 electoral votes, are also significant. Investors are optimistic that Trump will win those battlegrounds. They are assigning only 33% and 35% odds that his competitor will carry the states. Meanwhile, voters weaving through saguaro cactuses in route to voting locations in hotly contested Arizona, with 11 electoral points, are likely to select Trump, with contract investors pointing to Harris having only a 22% chance of taking the state. Nevada, with six tallies, is also expected to be another closely watched contest. For that state, Forecast Contract traders place a 41% chance of a Harris win.
Source: ForecastEx
Participants Now Expect a Split Congress
Congress, meanwhile, is also generating strong interest among Forecast Contract traders. For the Senate investors only place an 18% chance of Democrats winning a majority. In the House of Representatives, however, investors have established a 53% likelihood of Democrats securing leadership.
Source: ForecastEx
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