E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 5499.00, up 57.75 on Friday and down 54.75 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 19,174.50, up 182.25 on Friday and down 538.50 on the week
We are embarking on one of the most pivotal weeks of the year. Earnings announcements from the largest companies surround the Federal Reserve’s policy decision Wednesday afternoon. There is only a 4.1% probability the Federal Reserve will cut rates at this meeting, but the committee is expected to telegraph a September rate cut. In fact, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool is pricing in a September cut with 100% certainty. As for earnings, according to The Transcript there are 171 companies in the S&P 500 reporting this week. Furthermore, four out of the top five or four out of the top six (if you combine GOOG and GOOGL). Bill Baruch joined the CNBC Halftime Report on Thursday, where he reiterated his confidence in strong big tech earnings that will help alleviate waning confidence and reinvigorate its outperformance.
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures again tested a critical area of major three-star resistance at 5528.75-5533.25 and 19,356-19,390 this morning. These pockets of resistance are the first in a wave of thick overhead supply the indices must chew through in order to recoup the July 23rd close, when GOOG and TSLA reported. The July 23rd settlement aligns to create rare major four-star resistance. To the downside, price action associated with a choppy Thursday and Friday trade helps build out supports, most importantly that which aligns with Friday’s weekly settlement; while holding above here, we see the trade most constructive in attempting higher prices.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 5528.75-5533.25***, 5542.75***, 5551.50-5553.75**, 5572.75-5576.75***, 5599.25-5611****
Pivot: 5522.25
Support: 5508.50-5509.25**, 5499-5501.75***, 5478.50-5482***, 5470-5472.50**, 5448.25-5453.25***, 5439-5441***, 5432.50**, 5391.25-5398.25***, 5366.50-5370.50****
NQ (September)
Resistance: 19,356-19,390***, 19,496-19,501**, 19,654-19,686***, 19,728-19,751**, 19,809-19,828**, 19,925-19,933****
Pivot: 19,250
Support: 19,159-19,174***, 19,104**, 19,040-19,060**, 18,945-18,992****, 18,883**, 18,727***, 18,645-18,675****, 18,482-18,500***
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Crude Oil (September)
Last week’s close: Settled at 77.16, down 1.12 on Friday and 1.48 on the week
WTI Crude Oil futures opened higher Sunday night amid Middle East tensions. A deadly rock strike on Israel by Iran-backed Hezbollah has eroded the hopes of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. However, a firm tape overnight has dissipated, and Crude Oil futures are testing into the gap open and major three-star support at 76.0r-76.40. This support level is one in which price action tested multiple times last week and a higher low today will help build out an inverse head and shoulders bottoming pattern.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 77.69-77.81**, 77.98-78.08**, 78.64-78.92***, 79.22**, 79.81***, 80.70***, 81.30***
Pivot: 77.25
Support: 76.04-76.40****, 75.71-75.87*, 75.08-75.32**, 74.55-74.91***
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Gold (December) / Silver (September)
Gold, last week’s close: Settled at 2427.9, up 28.0 on Friday and down 18.9 on the week
Silver, last week’s close: Settled at 28.02, up 0.045 on Friday and down 1.279 on the week
Gold and Silver futures are working back from last week’s beatdown. We believe the continued weakness is a near-term phenomenon and the result of three factors. Weakness is closely correlated to volatility associated with an unwind of the Japanese Yen carry trade. Also, the communist party of China prioritized quality growth over stimulated growth. With China’s economic growth trajectory deteriorating, the country is essentially exporting deflation. Lastly, speculative positioning in Gold became overzealous and a move off record highs created a liquidation event.
December Gold futures are now front month, and strength overnight tested major three-star resistance, aligning with a .382 retracement from last week’s low back to the prior week’s all-time high at 2451.5. We will be looking for balance at 2436.7 in order to hold a constructive session. Silver certainly lagged in its strength Sunday night and continues to struggle against key resistance at 28.28-28.34.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 2451.5***, 2464-2468***
Pivot: 2436.7
Support: 2427.9-2430.5***
Silver (Sept)
Resistance: 28.28-28.34**, 28.90-29.06****
Pivot: 28.10
Support: 28.04**, 27.91-27.95**, 27.75**, 27.54**, 27.33-27.40**, 26.61-26.98****
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Micro Bitcoin (August)
Last week’s close: Settled at 68,775, up 3,385 on Friday and 530 on the week
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 71,125***
Pivot: 69,090
Support: 68,775***, 65,390***
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Originally Posted July 29, 2024 – Gaming Mag 7 Earnings and Macro
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