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ForecastTrader Contracts: Initial Jobless Claims Opportunity: March 19, 2025

ForecastTrader Contracts: Initial Jobless Claims Opportunity: March 19, 2025

Posted March 19, 2025 at 10:44 am

Jose Torres
IBKR Macroeconomics

Folks, I like the “No” ForecastTrader Contract asking if initial jobless claims will exceed 260,000 for the week ending March 15, 2025. In the last 177 reports going back to October 2021, initial jobless claims have exceeded 260,000 only three times. Furthermore, the four-week moving average is at 226,000, while the consensus estimate is placed at 224,000 for tomorrow morning’s 8:30 a.m. publication. Meanwhile, DOGE layoffs have been a significant concern, but the effects are likely to kick in later this year when severance periods expire.

Finally, I believe “Team No” has the advantage in this specific contract, considering the “Yes” is priced at $0.22, corresponding with a 22% probability. I think the “No” answer is undervalued here at $0.78, offering an opportunity to IBKR ForecastTraders. If correct, the contract will pay $1.

The last 177 initial unemployment claims have shown show claims exceeding 260,000 only three times
IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking if unemployment claims will exceed 260,000 for week ending March 15

Source: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are as of the morning of March 19, 2025.

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2 thoughts on “ForecastTrader Contracts: Initial Jobless Claims Opportunity: March 19, 2025”

  • DAVE SILVER

    THIS IS REALLY TOTAL NONSENSE, IT DOESN’T PROMOTE INTELLIGENT INVESTING.

    • Interactive Brokers

      IBKR does not provide investment advice.

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