New home sale volumes have been rangebound for the past 26 months as post-pandemic housing demand has waned. Indeed, since December 2022, seasonally adjusted annualized transactions haven’t arrived beneath 600,000 or above 750,000. Tomorrow’s update for February, meanwhile, is expected to come in at 680,000, near the 675,000 mid-point of the range. An IBKR Forecast Contract combination trade that I like going into tomorrow’s print at 10:00 a.m. ET is buying the “Yes” Forecast Contract question asking, “Will sales of new single-family homes exceed 600,000 in February 2025” for $0.89 and the “No” for the same question but at the 750,000 threshold for $0.87. The combination trade would cost a total of $1.76 and shall new home sales fall within the range once again, both the “Yes” and the “No” would pay a dollar each for a total profit of $0.24.
Source: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March 24, 2025.
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