Initial unemployment claims have ranged between 203,000 and 260,000 from February 24, 2024, to March 15, 2025, representing 56 weekly publications. The average amount of claims during this time was 224,142, and the consensus estimate for this Thursday’s 8:30 am ET report is near that level at 225,000. Meanwhile, in the last 56 reports, initial unemployment claims have failed to exceed 210,000 only five times, but the IBKR ForecastTrader Contract asking, “Will US Initial Jobless Claims exceed 210,000 for the week ending March 22, 2025?” offers the “Yes” answer at what I believe is an undervalued $0.76, corresponding with a 76% probability that filings for benefits surpass 210,000. Furthermore, initial claims have trended higher lately, with the four-week moving average at 227,000 and the last five prints coming in at 220,000 or above. I believe the “Yes” is undervalued here, providing a mispriced opportunity for speculators and hedgers alike.
Source: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March 25, 2025.
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