Risk Sentiment Shrugs Off Mounting Middle East Hostilities: July 21, 2026

Wall Street is shrugging off the adverse pressures caused by surging oil prices, rising interest rates and a strengthening greenback as stocks go on a broad risk-on rally led by tech and semis. Cyclicals are performing well too, helped by robust corporate earnings that have investors buying names across most offensive sectors and 8 of the 11 majors are in the green alongside all four of the principal domestic equity benchmarks. Recovering animal spirits are essentially disregarding mounting geopolitical tensions that are expanding throughout the Middle East as the Houthis in Yemen, supported by Tehran, have announced a blockade on Saudi Arabia that is intended to impede the flow of crude through the Red Sea. Meanwhile, the US and Iran are on their 10th straight day of hostilities, and the violence has energy analysts and fixed-income watchers worried of undersupplied conditions on the one hand and Fed hikes paired with heavier inflation expectations on the other. The commodity complex is advancing because of greater safe-haven demand and the potential for a shortage of black gold and other materials. Cryptocurrencies and prediction markets are jumping on stronger speculative enthusiasm, while volatility protection instruments see lighter premiums on lessening hedging activity.

Hiring Slows Due to Weak Labor Participation

Private sector hiring decelerated at the beginning of the month as weak labor force participation continued to hamper job growth. Businesses added an average of 16.50k employees in each of the four weeks during the period that ended July 4, slowing from 19.25k in the prior print and marking the lowest since mid-March, according to ADP. The headline number signals a monthly run rate of around 71k, which is consistent with a stagnating employment picture and warrants attention.

The Delicate Balance of Robust Corporate Earnings and Rising Geopolitical Turmoil

Robust corporate earnings can continue to offset rising geopolitical risks for equity investors but only up to a point. And the bar has been raised for quarterly performances to counter heavier energy costs stemming from the Middle East conflict since Kevin Warsh was confirmed as the Fed chair, as he is squarely focused on the inflation side of the organization’s mandate. The core concentration on prices is justified by the central bank failing to reach its 2% target for five and a half years and that restrictive bias challenges further stock market advances. But the chair has opined that tighter financial conditions don’t necessarily mean that growth needs to slow or that unemployment must increase. Indeed, an AI driven productivity boom, an optimal balance sheet reduction plan that could suppress cost pressures without rate hikes, modern regulatory reforms that incentive business investment and lending or a heavy dose of good spirits representing an optimistic economic outlook can power future GDP expansion.

International Roundup

UK Payrolls Still Down Compared to Year-Ago Period

The total number of individuals in the UK collecting paychecks during June fell in the UK by 71,000 from the year-ago period, a 0.2% slip, and the month-over-month (m/m) metric fell by 4,000, according to preliminary estates of the Office for National Statistics.  The monthly change brought the country’s total number of employed individuals to 30.3 million.

The March to May period, furthermore, experienced year-over-year (y/y) and quarterly declines of 90,000 and 30,000.

While Unemployment Rate Falls From Previous Three-Month Period

The UK’s estimated unemployment rate from the March to May period, at 4.9%, was 0.2 percentage points from the same period of 2025 but it was down 0.1 percentage points from the previous quarter. From a monthly view, May’s 4.9% level was unchanged from April’s level and it matched the economist consensus estimate.

Also in June, the total number of individuals collecting unemployment benefits climbed from 1.3k in May to 6.7k, a better result than the economist consensus estimate of 29.4k.

And UK Earnings Growth Is Mixed

Average earnings in May were up 3.4% y/y, matching both the economist consensus estimate and April’s result. When including bonuses, compensation climbed 4.3% y/y, missing the 4.5% economist estimate and decelerating from 4.4% in April.

Hong Kong Retail Price Pressures Are Unchanged

Hong Kong’s June Consumer Price Index was up 2% y/y, which matched May’s result, according to the Census and Statistics Department. The monthly average increase for the three-month period that ended in June, furthermore, was 0.1%, which matched the result of the three-month period that concluded in May.

Regarding the y/y print, the following categories and the extent of their changes contributed to the headline’s increase:

• Electricity, gas and water, 9.2%
• Transport, 5.3%
• Miscellaneous services, 5.2%
• Miscellaneous goods, 2.3%
• Housing, 1.1%
• Meals out and takeaway food, 0.8%
• Clothing and footwear, 0.7%
• Alcoholic drinks and tobacco, 0.1%

Conversely, durable goods and basic food prices fell 1.1% and 0.5%.