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Posted August 3, 2026 at 1:03 pm
Tomorrow’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is expected to reflect a modest retreat from May’s 24-month high of 7.594 million to around 7.45 million. The stability occurs as employee demand has been strong in the past few months, with immigration policies making it difficult to find workers, resulting in heavier vacancies and subdued layoffs. Furthermore, the economy is strongly, which is conducive to healthy employment growth, as companies need personnel to fulfill robust shopping activity. Turning to the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market, meanwhile, the “Yes” at 6.5 million is potentially undervalued at $0.77, because it would require a 70-month low, or going back to August 2020, to lose. Additionally, that 6.5 million level requires a more than 1.09 million month-over-month subtraction, something that’s happened only twice during extremely stressful economic scenarios in the publication’s history, which began in 2000. Furthermore, in the monthly Reuters poll of 23 forecasters, no one anticipates a statistic that weak, as the minimum and maximum projections stand at 7 million and 7.7 million, indicating a significantly elevated degree of probability that this $0.77 “Yes” contract will deliver $1.00 to investors.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 3, 2026.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC, as well as other CFTC-registered DCMs, including Kalshi and CME. For more information, see ibkr.com/realfex Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx Forecast Contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
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