Tariff Uncertainty Causes Stocks, Rates to Reverse Following Friday Ascent: Feb. 23, 2026

Stocks are giving back last Friday’s celebratory Supreme Court decision-driven rally as President Trump’s administration navigates alternative avenues for maintaining its trade policy. The White House has decided to use Sections 122 and 301 to maintain international tariffs and hold investigations into unfair practices from global counterparts. Investors are reacting negatively to the news, as participants believed last week that there was a greater chance of government refunds that could bolster corporate earnings in the short run; however, that path has certainly narrowed. Emblematic of a fiscal budget situation that stands to benefit from the continuation of import duties is Treasury asset appreciation, with yields tumbling across the curve in bull-flattening motion led by duration. Alleviation at the long-end arrives today on the heels of a selloff motivated by the possibility that federal revenues would be pressured by the SCOTUS’s ruling. Meanwhile, there’s a heavy dose of uncertainty on Wall Street as the commander in chief battles to sustain a pivotal part of his signature agenda, and risk-off winds are generating interest in fixed-income, leading to diving rates as a result. Safe-haven bids are additionally represented in defensive share outperformance, as health care, consumer staples and utilities experience strong gains alongside the gold and silver precious metals. There’s hedging activity occurring, too, as put option premiums and volatility levels ascend. Elsewhere, cheaper domestic financing costs are weighing on the greenback, a lack of speculative enthusiasm is sending cryptocurrencies to the basement but forecast contracts are seeing engagement. 

Stocks Are Sideways for Four Months

The S&P 500 has gone sideways for four months while corporate earnings have continued expanding alongside a buoyant economy. A flat market accompanied with growing profitability leads to cheaper valuations which when combined with a cyclical reacceleration amidst several rate cuts, could offer strong buying possibilities for investors. Indeed, there’s good reason to believe that GDP this year will grow faster than in 2025, as the tailwinds from President Trump’s Big Beautiful bill are poised to propel consumer spending and business investment further in 2026. Furthermore, the adverse impact of the longest government shutdown on performance in the fourth quarter is likely to reverse into buoyancy in the current period. However, with equities down 2.5% from their recent records, benchmarks may take a 5% or 10% dive from all-time highs in the next few months, drops that occur occasionally during bull markets, and those levels could provide even more pronounced opportunities for accumulation. For now, though, we’re halfway there from a potential 5% correction.

IBKR Forecast Trader Signals Healthy Labor Conditions

Unemployment claims are expected to come in between 210k and 220k on Thursday by IBKR Forecast Trader participants, levels that are consistent with healthy labor conditions and a solid cycle.

Source for image: ForecastEx.

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Feb. 23, 2026. 

To learn more about ForecastEx, view our Traders’ Academy video here

International Roundup

Singapore Prices Fall Relative to December

January retail prices fell month over month (m/m) in January but were sill 1.4% higher than during the first month of 2025, according to the Consumer Price Index from the Department of Statistics. After climbing 0.3% m/m in December, the gauge fell 0.5% last month with the following categories and the extent of the changes contributing to the decline:

• Recreation, sport and culture, 3.6%
• Education, 1.7%
• Housing and utilities, 1.4%
• Information and communication, 0.1%

The clothing and footwear category, which was up 2.1%, had the largest increase. Other categories that become more costly m/m and the extent of the price climbs were as follows:

• Health, 0.5%
• Miscellaneous goods and services, 0.3%
• Transport, 0.3%
• Household durables and services, 0.2%
• Food, 0.2%