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Posted January 29, 2026 at 1:06 pm
Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s decision to formally dissent against the central bank’s ruling to keep interest rates unchanged yesterday improved his odds of being nominated as chair. Indeed, his chances doubled from a low of 9% on Wednesday, Jan 28 to a high of 18% today, before paring that advance and standing at around 12% in the early afternoon. His likelihood of being chosen to the top spot sat in the basement on Saturday, Jan. 24, meanwhile, with his prospects at only 4%. Colleague Stephen Miran also disagreed with the hold verdict and favored a reduction of the same 25-basis point magnitude.
The Eurozone’s Gross Domestic Product result hasn’t exceeded 0.4% for 13 consecutive quarters and none of the 40 forecasters in the Reuters monthly poll thinks it will happen in tomorrow morning’s report either. Indeed, the median estimate stands at 0.2%, against the backdrop of a minimum and maximum of 0.1% and 0.4%. The 0.4% “No” is undervalued at $0.78 in my opinion when considering the narrow path that exists for receiving a number of 0.5% or higher.
The Eurozone’s unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.3% although a few of the surveyed economists penciled in a climb to 6.4%. Against that backdrop though, there’s still a decent chance of getting a lower figure despite none of the forecasters estimating a 6.2% level. The IBKR ForecastTrader, meanwhile, think there’s a 30% probability of an outcome arriving at 6.2% or under. A jump above 6.4% is relatively out of the cards, however, and that “No” is priced at $0.90 as a result but should be closer to $0.96 since a 0.2% monthly increase is highly unlikely and historically rare.
The recent increase in the Baltic Dry Index is unlikely to reverse drastically to 1,825 or under because oil prices are up 4% today. The figure is poised to rise from this morning’s level of 2,016, and the “Yes” for a number above 1,825 in tomorrow’s reading is undervalued at $0.88 in my opinion as it should be closer to $0.96.
The Singapore Overnight Rate Average (SORA) for tomorrow is expected to come in at or under 1.3% with a 64% degree of certainty, although the benchmark has been highly volatile lately. Indeed, the last five
days of readings have fluctuated significantly, coming in at 1.17%, 1.37%, 1.45%, 1.21% and 1.31% amidst an average of 1.3%. But the ten-day mean is at 1.19%, however.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 29, 2026.
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