ForecastTrader Election Contracts point to the mid-term elections resulting in a split legislative branch and the 2028 White House race being a toss-up. In the meantime, the contracts are providing interest-like incentive coupon payments which annualize at 3.83%. Additionally, the rate is paid on the market value of the contract as it changes towards expiry. For example, an investor benefits from higher coupons if the underlying contract appreciates following the purchase, perhaps going from $0.50 to $0.70. Conversely, an investor collects reduced coupons if the probability of his/her contract answer turning out correct begins to slip.
The ForecastTrader Election Contract asking, “Will the Democratic Party win a majority in the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 general election?” offers the “Yes” answer priced at $0.67, pointing a 67% chance that the party will flip the House to its control.
For the upper chamber, the Contract asking, “Will the Republican Party win a US Senate Majority in the 2026 general election?” points to a 77% likelihood that the GOP will maintain its control of the Senate.
For an even longer-term view, Contracts are showing a close presidential race with platform participants pricing the “Yes” answer to the question “Will a Republican win the US Presidential Election in 2028?” at $0.51.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of March 28, 2025.
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Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Disclosure: ForecastEx Market Sentiment
Displayed outcome information is based on current market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. Current market sentiment for contracts may be viewed at ForecastEx at https://forecasttrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php. Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
Disclosure: Forecast Contracts
Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.
Divulgación: ForecastEx
Interactive Brokers LLC es un Comerciante de Comisiones de Futuros registrado en la CFTC y miembro compensador y afiliado de ForecastEx LLC ("ForecastEx"). ForecastEx es un Mercado de Contratos Designado y una Organización de Compensación de Derivados registrada en la CFTC. Interactive Brokers LLC proporciona acceso a los contratos de pronóstico de ForecastEx para clientes elegibles. Interactive Brokers LLC no hace recomendaciones con respecto a los productos disponibles en su plataforma, incluidos aquellos ofrecidos por ForecastEx.
Disclosure: CFTC Regulation 1.71
This is commentary on economic, political and/or market conditions within the meaning of CFTC Regulation 1.71, and is not meant provide sufficient information upon which to base a decision to enter into a derivatives transaction.
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