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Posted June 3, 2026 at 12:51 pm
The Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index (WEI) reached 3% for first time this year in the May 21t publication and the subsequent May 28 release grew modestly from there, hitting 3.02%. Broad momentum in the services and manufacturing sectors has quickened the pace of the expansion, with the AI buildout especially comprising a sizeable chunk of recent activity and helping the landscape overcome the burdens of accelerating inflation, elevated oil prices and heavy interest rates. But for tomorrow’s print, Interactive Brokers prediction market participants only see a 41% of exceeding the 3% threshold once again, while the “Yes” at an even loftier 3.2% is going for $0.08. Below, however, the “Yeses” at 2.6% and 2.8% are priced at $0.75 and $0.61, indicating a great amount of confidence regarding ongoing buoyancy.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of June 3, 2026.
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Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Interactive Brokers LLC is a CFTC-registered Futures Commission Merchant and a clearing member and affiliate of ForecastEx LLC (“ForecastEx”). ForecastEx is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization. Interactive Brokers LLC provides access to ForecastEx Forecast Contracts for eligible customers. Interactive Brokers LLC does not make recommendations with respect to any products available on its platform, including those offered by ForecastEx.
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Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC, as well as other CFTC-registered DCMs, including Kalshi and CME. For more information, see ibkr.com/realfex Note: Real-time market sentiment updates are only active during exchange open trading hours. Updates to current market sentiment for overnight activity will be reflected at the open on the next trading day. This information is not intended by IBKR as an opinion or likelihood of a potential outcome.
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