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Posted December 24, 2025 at 11:43 am
As the year winds down, markets appear unusually resilient despite tariffs, shifting rate expectations, and ongoing global uncertainty. Jeff Praissman and Prosper Trading Academy’s Scott Bauer break down what moved markets, what didn’t, and whether thin holiday trading could still deliver surprises.
The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made.
Hi everyone. This is Jeff Praissman with Interactive Brokers Podcast. It’s my pleasure to welcome back, for our weekly podcast with Prosper Trading Academy, Scott Bauer. Hey Scott, how are you?
Jeff, I am fantastic. It is holiday season. We’re outta here in a little bit. How you doing?
I’m doing well, I’m doing well. Yeah, that’s right. The market’s a half day and, you know, everyone’s kind of just ready to get going. But, you know, it’s been a wild year, and I kind of want to kick it off with what was the biggest news story of the year that you think influenced the markets?
Yeah, I think it has to be tariffs and Liberation Day—what happened to the markets back in April. Not that it was 100% unexpected, because there was talk about tariffs coming in, but nobody really knew what the reactions were going to be—not just here in the U.S., but globally—into the markets. So, you know, that was—I’m not going to say one of those one-off events—but that was certainly, let’s call it one of those two- or three-standard-deviation events that I don’t think anybody was really preparing for.
Yeah, and that’s a good point. And I think that’s a great answer. I would say on the flip side of maybe a calmer influence would be AI, right? Like it was sort of more of a smooth curve, whereas the tariffs were just that huge bump in the log there. But I think my answer would be, you know, obviously tariffs, but also maybe AI was more of a consistent influence.
For sure.
And then I want to kind of flip this. What do you think was the biggest non-new story—something everyone thought was going to disrupt the markets but kind of fizzled out and never did?
So I’m going to say one that I bet, if you took a poll, there wouldn’t be many people that say this—and I’m going to say the Fed lowering rates, but seeing actual rates move higher, and that not affecting the market. Right? At least not affecting the equity markets. You know, I think the intent and what everybody was thinking was, “Ah, the Fed’s going to lower rates. Whether it’s one, two, three cuts, we’re going to see those rates come down. We’re going to see the 10-year come down, we’re going to see the 30-year come down.” And lo and behold, you know, sure, we’ve seen some fluctuations, but the bond market has a mind of its own, right? And we just haven’t seen that work in tandem. And to me, seeing the bond market really remain where it’s at—yields really remain where they’re at—but the equity markets at all-time highs, to me, that’s a pretty big surprise.
Yeah, no, that’s a good one. And I would kind of add to it—and not to be political at all—but almost like all the conflicts in the world, right? There’s just a lot of bad things going on, and the markets seem to kind of keep chugging along.
Yeah, it’s what they call that Teflon market, right? And gotta be careful.
Yes, yes. All right. And I know we’ve got the holiday—we’ve got a half day today, we’re closed tomorrow, next week is New Year’s—but even with this year winding down, we do still have some numbers releasing next week, like ISM manufacturing PMI and the weekly jobless claims. Plus, December 31st is actually a pretty important day, when a lot of the funds rebalance.
Right.
That day—what should we expect?
I think we’re going to see volatility, because we’ll probably get a little bit lower volume, but we do have these data points. And as we’ve seen with the more recent economic data that has come out, the market is a little unsure, right? Because of the government shutdown and because there’s been this backlog. So I think there is a potential for some surprises in these numbers next week, which will add to maybe some of the volatility and movement that I think we’re going to see, given a little less liquidity than normal.
Yeah, no. And then finally, since we are winding down, I’m just going to ask you—what’s your favorite holiday movie and holiday tradition?
All right. Well, favorite holiday movie for sure is Elf. There’s no question about it. That is my favorite. But if we talk about more trading-related, Trading Places has to be it. When I bring people down here to the CBOE, live on the trading floor, to visit, I always reference Trading Places. I’m like, okay, maybe you’ve never seen a trading floor before, but this is really, really like what you saw in Trading Places. Maybe it’s not Eddie Murphy and Dan Aykroyd, but this is really what it’s like. So those two are always staples in my family. And how about you?
Yeah, I love Elf. It’s funny—my oldest is home from college. We actually watched It’s a Wonderful Life last night. I really liked it. I’ve got to say, on the flip side, Office Christmas Party—do not let the kids see it—but that’s a great one.
That is a good one.
I would say for the tradition—eggnog. Some people love it, some people hate it. I absolutely love it, but I only love it for about three weeks, and I want nothing to do with it after that.
That’s it.
But I absolutely love eggnog.
That’s it. Well, I hope you get your fill, but not too much of it.
Well, Scott, it’s been a great year. Always appreciate you joining us for our Wednesday podcast. And for our listeners, you can find more from Scott at prospertradingacademy.com. Go to Education—you can find prior podcasts, webinars, and articles. Scott, have a great New Year.
Thank you. Very same to you and your family, Jeff.
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