Cash Me if You Can: Chasing Forex Fortunes

Think you can outsmart the currency markets? In this episode, we dive into the high-stakes world of forex trading—who’s making moves, what’s driving the market, and how fortunes are won (or lost) in the blink of an eye.

Summary – IBKR Podcasts Ep. 228

The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made.

Andrew Wilkinson 

Welcome to this week’s podcast. My name is Andrew Wilkinson with Interactive Brokers. I’m joined by my colleague Jeff Praissman. Hi, Jeff. 

Jeff Praissman 

Hey, Andrew. How are you? 

Andrew Wilkinson 

I’m doing all right, mate. And I would like to welcome to the program Steven Hatzakis, who’s the Global Director of Online Research at ForexBrokers.com. Welcome, Steven. How are you? 

Steven Hatzakis 

I’m well, thank you. Thank you so much for having me, Andrew. 

Andrew Wilkinson 

It’s going to be a great discussion. We’re going to be talking about foreign exchange currency rates. Just give us some insight into your role at ForexBrokers.com, Steven. 

Steven Hatzakis 

Absolutely. I joined ForexBrokers.com in 2016. Our parent company, Reink Media Group, owns multiple properties, including StockBrokers.com and Investor.com. I was hired to lead the research and online broker reviews. We’re constantly testing brokerage platforms, such as those from companies like Interactive Brokers. 

In addition to being a partner, I’m writing content and experimenting with the latest technologies from companies in the online brokerage industry. 

Andrew Wilkinson 

Very good. Okay, so first of all, Steve, I’d like you to give the audience some idea of the overall size of the foreign exchange market globally. And perhaps, if you can, discuss a little bit about whether there are certain regions where retail or institutional traders dominate the space, please. 

Steven Hatzakis 

Absolutely. That’s a great question. The foreign exchange market is the largest market in the world, trading upwards of $7.5 trillion in daily average volume. That’s according to the latest data from April 2022, which was the last triennial survey from the Bank for International Settlements. 

To put this in perspective, $7.5 trillion in daily volume is greater than the stock and commodities markets combined on a daily basis. It’s a massive market— all the global currencies in the world trading electronically for the most part. There’s also some voice brokerage trading, but the market is highly efficient. 

It’s the largest market in the world. And there’s another report coming out in a few months, actually, because this is a triennial survey. I’ll be interested to see if that number is going up because, for the past 10, 15, 20 years, the market has been growing consistently. 

Jeff Praissman 

Hey, Steven. It’s good to see you again. What attracts traders to forex, and what are they using it for? 

Steven Hatzakis 

I wanted to add to the question of where the market is developing because I think that affects how traders use it. I’d say you’re either speculating or using forex because you need the money. 

For example, if you’re purchasing a property abroad or you’re a business with an import invoice to pay overseas, your need for forex is dictated by your financial transactions. 

Depending on the need of the investor, that’s going to dictate why you’re using it and also where you are geographically. Here in the U.S., for example, we think in dollars because that’s what we transact in. But if you’re importing a product from Europe and have to settle in euros, then you’re exposed to the EUR/USD exchange rate. That could cause your purchase to cost more than anticipated—or, if the currency moves favorably, it could end up being cheaper. 

You can hedge that currency exposure using different instruments, such as spot forex, options, or futures. Or, if you’re an investor who just wants to speculate on whether the euro will go up or down, that can also be a way to potentially make a profit—or a loss—depending on whether the market moves in your direction. 

Jeff Praissman 

Steve, I think you touched on it a little bit in your previous answers, but could you dive deeper into who is actually trading FX? It seems like there are several different participants in the market. 

Steven Hatzakis 

Absolutely. The foreign exchange market consists of different types of participants. You have retail traders, institutional investors—such as hedge funds or large firms—and even central banks, which are some of the largest players influencing monetary policy. 

A central bank might step in to purchase or sell its own national currency against others, transacting with other central banks or even local banks on its behalf. So you have non-bank intermediaries, institutions, central banks, and retail traders, who are individual investors. 

Andrew Wilkinson 

Steven, now maybe I’m going back a little bit—maybe I’m showing my age—but we’ve heard of “Mrs. Watanabe,” also known as the “kimono trader.” Is she as important now as she was in the past? Does she still exist? 

Steven Hatzakis 

I think that term has evolved over the past couple of decades. Japan has historically been very strong in foreign exchange volumes, but that actually changed recently when Singapore surpassed it, moving into second place after the U.K. 

So now, you have the U.K., the U.S., and then Singapore. Japan still has a tremendous amount of volume, though. The term “Mrs. Watanabe” was popularized because it referred to everyday people—housewives and retail traders—who were heavily involved in forex trading. 

Retail trading volumes in Japan were orders of magnitude larger than in other countries for a similar demographic. While Japan’s market remains important, it’s not as dominant as it used to be. The global forex market has grown and evolved, becoming more efficient, which means that retail traders—even in significant numbers—have less impact than they once did. 

Jeff Praissman 

And Steven, since you mentioned different types of traders, how are people accessing forex markets today? 

Steven Hatzakis 

Market access is always important, especially with new market entrants. People who are just learning about forex need to choose a highly regulated broker. 

Once they do, there are different ways to trade forex. Spot trading is one of the more popular methods for retail traders, representing a significant portion of forex volume. Futures trading has also evolved, becoming more accessible with different contract sizes, making it more flexible than it used to be. 

Both spot and futures trading involve margin accounts and leverage, which increases both risk and potential reward. Options trading is another instrument traders use, though it’s more complex. Options have time value, which decays, and all options eventually expire worthless if not exercised in the money. 

Those are the three most popular methods: spot trading, futures, and options. Other methods—like swaps and forwards—are typically used by institutions rather than retail traders. 

Jeff Praissman 

Yeah, and I would imagine—just to stay on the subject a little longer—that certain products might be favored by some classes of investors over others. Institutions might use all of them, but retail traders may be guided more toward spot forex rather than the more complex currency futures or currency options. 

Steven Hatzakis 

It depends on the strategy as well. A retail trader might use a blend of these products if they have a more sophisticated strategy. More experienced traders may combine different instruments as part of an advanced risk management approach. 

Jeff Praissman 

That’s interesting. I think many people unfamiliar with forex trading assume it’s mostly spot trading—that you’re just buying British pounds or euros. But it really spans multiple asset classes and instruments. 

One thing that comes up from time to time is the distinction between major currency pairs and cross-currency pairs. Could you explain that for our listeners? It’s not always intuitive for those new to forex. 

Steven Hatzakis 

Absolutely. Major currency pairs involve the most widely traded global currencies, usually quoted against the U.S. dollar. These include the U.S. dollar (USD), euro (EUR), British pound (GBP), Swiss franc (CHF), and Japanese yen (JPY). 

Now, if you take two major currencies and price them against each other—without the U.S. dollar—you get a cross-currency pair. For example, EUR/GBP is a cross pair. It still involves two major currencies, but since the U.S. dollar isn’t part of the pair, it’s classified differently. 

What many traders don’t realize is that cross pairs are mathematically derived. Their exchange rates are calculated using the underlying values of each currency against the U.S. dollar. 

For example, to determine the EUR/GBP exchange rate, you take the EUR/USD rate and the GBP/USD rate and use a mathematical formula—multiplication or division, depending on how they are structured—to derive the EUR/GBP price. This applies to all cross pairs. 

Why does this matter? Because if you’re trading GBP/USD and USD/JPY, those two markets influence GBP/JPY, which is a derived cross. If GBP/USD moves up 3% and USD/JPY moves up 1%, GBP/JPY will move by roughly 4%, since it combines those movements. 

On the flip side, if GBP/USD rises while USD/JPY falls, they could offset each other, and GBP/JPY might remain relatively unchanged. Traders analyze these relationships to take positions in cross pairs strategically, gaining exposure to certain currencies without directly trading the U.S. dollar. 

Jeff Praissman 

So, in a way, trading currency pairs involves more moving parts than just trading a single stock. 

Steven Hatzakis 

Yes, exactly. But at its core, forex trading is just about ratios—how much one currency is worth compared to another. 

If you’re in the U.S., you think in dollars: How much does this cost in dollars? Forex works the same way, just with different base currencies. How much do euros cost in dollars? How much do yen cost in euros? 

It’s like stock trading, where you price shares in dollars. But in forex, you could also price one currency against another—similar to valuing one stock relative to another. 

I hope that explanation makes it a little clearer for listeners. 

Jeff Praissman 

Yeah, definitely. That was a great breakdown. 

So, let’s talk about what actually drives currency markets. Equity markets have earnings reports and financial statements to influence stock prices, but currencies are different. What are the key factors that move forex markets? 

Steven Hatzakis 

Great question. If you’re just getting started in forex, this is one of the fundamental things you need to understand. 

The foreign exchange market is primarily influenced by economic indicators and monetary policy. Central banks play a huge role in setting interest rates and shaping monetary policy, which directly impacts a currency’s value. 

Other factors include geopolitical events, supply and demand, and market expectations. Traders closely watch economic calendars, which list key events like GDP reports, employment data (such as non-farm payrolls in the U.S.), and inflation figures. 

When economic data is better or worse than expected, it moves the market. If a country’s economy is stronger than anticipated, its currency may appreciate. If the data disappoints, the currency may weaken. 

Market participants also react to central bank decisions. If a central bank raises interest rates, that currency often strengthens because higher interest rates attract capital flows. Conversely, if a central bank cuts rates or signals dovish policies, the currency might decline. 

There’s also an element of speculation—traders anticipate moves based on expectations, so price action often reflects not just actual data, but how that data compares to forecasts. 

Andrew Wilkinson 

Steven, you’ve done a lot of research and surveys. From your experience, what are the most popular tools and indicators that retail traders rely on when trading FX? 

Steven Hatzakis 

Tools have certainly evolved over the years, and retail traders today have access to an impressive range of resources. But having more tools doesn’t guarantee success. The key is to use a combination of them wisely. 

Popular tools typically fall into two categories: 

1. Technical Analysis – This involves analyzing price action and market trends using indicators like moving averages, Fibonacci retracements, or Bollinger Bands. Some indicators are complex, while others—like a simple 200-day moving average—are widely used by both beginners and professionals. 

2. Fundamental Analysis – This focuses on macroeconomic data, monetary policy, and geopolitical events. Traders use economic calendars, financial news, and expert analysis to assess market conditions. 

Some traders rely exclusively on technical analysis, while others use a mix of both. Technical indicators can help identify trends, but they don’t predict the future. The market can always move unpredictably. That’s why it’s important not to rely too much on any single tool. 

Andrew Wilkinson 

My final question: Over time, have certain currency pairs or crosses gained popularity? What’s in vogue right now? 

Steven Hatzakis 

That’s a great question. 

The popularity of different currency pairs changes based on market conditions. For example, traders often look at spreads—the cost of trading—because cross pairs tend to have wider spreads than major pairs. 

In Japan, for instance, traders historically took advantage of low interest rates, borrowing yen to invest in higher-yielding currencies through a strategy called the carry trade. This was a major reason for Japan’s high forex trading volumes in the past. 

However, with rising global interest rates, the carry trade has become less attractive. Today, traders look for volatility, economic trends, and geopolitical shifts when choosing currency pairs. Some prefer major pairs like EUR/USD because of their liquidity, while others seek opportunities in more exotic pairs with higher volatility. 

Unlike stocks—where traders typically think about what to buy—forex always involves two currencies. If you buy EUR/USD, you’re buying euros and selling dollars. There’s always a long and a short side in every forex trade. 

At the end of the day, it depends on a trader’s strategy and risk appetite. Some prefer major pairs with lower spreads, while others look at cross pairs or exotics for higher potential volatility. 

Andrew Wilkinson 

Steven Hatzakis from ForexBrokers.com, thank you very much for joining us today. 

Steven Hatzakis 

Thank you so much for having me. 

Andrew Wilkinson 

And Jeff, thank you for co-hosting. 

Jeff Praissman 

My pleasure. Great seeing both of you. Looking forward to our next one. 

Andrew Wilkinson 

And to our audience, thanks for taking the time to listen. Remember, you can subscribe to this channel wherever you get your podcasts. Bye for now.