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Posted January 21, 2026 at 11:46 am
As global trade tensions resurface, markets are once again reacting to headlines around tariffs, geopolitics, and policy signals from abroad. Jeff Praissman sits down with Scott Bauer of Prosper Trading Academy to break down what’s moving markets, what investors should watch next and whether earnings and economic data can steady the ship.
The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made.
Hi everyone, this is Jeff Praissman with the Interactive Brokers Podcast. It’s my pleasure to welcome you back for our weekly market update with Scott Bauer from Prosper Trading Academy. Hey Scott, how are you?
Jeff, I am great, especially after that Indiana Hoosiers national championship win the other night.
Yes! Congratulations. I know you have a big connection to the school. Unfortunately, your Bears didn’t come through for you, it was an exciting game, too.
It was. But if one of the two had to win, that was the one.
Yeah, I definitely agree. Anyway, it’s great to have you back in the studio. For our listeners, we do a quick market update—what happened last week, what we think might happen this week, and any potential impacts. So let’s kick things off.
It feels like we’re always talking about tariffs, but now there’s renewed discussion around proposed tariffs on Europe related to Greenland. With negotiations ongoing, are we seeing any effect on the markets yet, or is this more of a wait-and-see situation?
I think we’re seeing the effects in real time, Jeff. You can look at President Trump’s comments this morning in Davos, where he discussed not wanting to use force over Greenland and addressed the broader tariff situation, and how the market reacted to that. This whole situation really has investors worldwide on edge. We’ve seen volatility following the latest rhetoric, and it’s definitely something we have to watch closely, because markets can move on a dime based on this kind of news.
Yeah, and it’s also a shortened week. Markets were closed Monday for Martin Luther King Jr. Day, but it’s still a busy one, especially with earnings season underway. What’s the market really focusing on over the next week or so? Which earnings are you watching most closely?
I think we almost have to look ahead to next week. I don’t want to discount what we have this week, but next week features some of the earnings the market is really hinging on—Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and then Alphabet the following week. These are the names the market is watching to answer some big questions: Is the AI trade still intact? Is Big Tech—the “Magnificent Seven”—still going to lead this market? So while this week matters, earnings-wise, that’s really where the focus is.
Right, which makes sense, given how much those companies drove market activity in 2025. And while earnings will dominate the business headlines, we also have some key economic data coming up—initial jobless claims on the 22nd, consumer confidence on the 27th, and of course the big one: the FOMC interest rate decision on the 28th.
How much impact do these reports have during earnings season? If they come in roughly in line with expectations, do they become more of a non-event?
If the data comes in within a normalized range, it may not be as impactful. But what really stands out to me is PCE, which comes out tomorrow. The big question is whether inflation continues to come down—there’s still a real tug-of-war around that. Another thing investors should be paying close attention to tomorrow is the 10-year TIPS auction. TIPS are Treasury securities designed to hedge against inflation, and the 10-year yield—currently hovering around 4.20% to 4.30%—makes this auction especially important. I think that’s something worth watching very closely.
Absolutely. For our final question, I want to switch gears and talk about the oil industry. How has it performed since the capture of Maduro, and are there specific areas that could benefit more than others—such as drilling, exploration, or production?
It’s really intriguing. We know President Trump wants major companies to get in there, start drilling, and begin extracting what’s estimated to be over 300 billion barrels of oil still in the ground. But for companies like Chevron and others, it ultimately comes down to cost analysis. There are two sides to this, and it’s more complicated than people realize. Even if these companies move forward, it’s going to take time. If I were looking at one segment of the oil industry, it would probably be the drillers—but—
—so it’s not just a situation where you start drilling and oil pops out everywhere, right?
Exactly. I have this image in my head of a Three Stooges episode where they hit oil and it shoots everywhere—but it’s definitely not like that. It’s far more involved, and even if companies move in, it’s going to be a long process.
Scott, this has been great, as always. For our listeners, you can find more from Scott Bauer at Prosper Trading Academy at prospertrading.com, or on our website. Just go to ibkr.com, click on “Education,” and you’ll find all of our past webinars, podcasts, and articles.
Scott, until next time—thanks for stopping by the IBKR Podcast studio.
As always, thank you, Jeff.
All right.
The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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