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Posted August 20, 2026 at 1:12 pm
The national debt in the United States just exceeded $40 trillion on August 18; however, that threshold’s “Yes” contract in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market is going for a significantly undervalued $0.72, in my opinion. The contract expires 42 days from now on October 1, and there’s no expectation for the government to run a surplus and reduce its liabilities by then, considering that the Treasury is operating with an expanding out-sized deficit. It’s precisely the unbalanced budget dynamics in Washington and in much of the developed world that have raised long-end bond yields to their loftiest levels in decades this week, although geopolitical uncertainties, elevated inflation expectations, volatile energy prices, competition from credit financing for the AI buildout and robust growth have additionally lifted borrowing costs. Furthermore, those heavy interest expenses make it even less likely that the total can potentially drop below $40 trillion by this instrument’s settlement date.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 20, 2026.
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