Will the Fed Roll the Dice Today?

Join Andrew Wilkinson, Jeff Praissman, and Prosper Trading Academy’s Scott Bauer live from Las Vegas as they break down trader sentiment ahead of the FOMC decision. From bond-market signals to volatility risks and holiday positioning, the trio explores what’s truly driving markets into year-end.

Summary – IBKR Podcasts Ep. 330

The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made.

Andrew Wilkinson 

Welcome to this week’s podcast. My name’s Andrew Wilkinson, Director of Trading Education at Interactive Brokers, and we are coming to you today, December 10th, ahead of the FOMC decision from the Prosper Trading Academy Ultimate Traders Experience Event in Las Vegas. I’m joined by my co-host, Jeff Praissman, and Scott Bauer of Prosper Trading Academy. Welcome, gentlemen. Scott, tell us a little bit about the Prosper Trading Academy event here today. You’ve had a very good turnout with lots of people. Interactive Brokers, along with Cboe and Quasar Markets, is sponsoring the event. What are you hoping to achieve? 

Scott Bauer

Yes, thank you. And thanks to Interactive Brokers, first and foremost, for helping make this a reality. This is a conference where we wanted to get traders of all kinds who are members or students of Prosper Trading Academy together. Obviously, we want to have some fun because we’re out here in Vegas, but the goal is literally to be face-to-face with all of our trader educators and to really be able to dive in — to see how we go about things. How do I trade? How do our futures traders trade? How do our day traders trade? Show them the tools, show them the analytics that they use, and actually trade live with them. And you know, when we do it on a daily basis remotely, even though it’s live, it’s certainly not like literally being in the same room with someone. So, we’ve had a great response so far. We’ve got a whole other day to go, and hopefully some fireworks today maybe with the Fed. But again, we really appreciate Interactive Brokers participating in this and being a sponsor. 

Andrew Wilkinson

One of the strengths here: you’ve brought a lot of options traders of various degrees of skill. Tell us about those. 

Scott Bauer

Sure. We have students and traders that are just beginning. We have traders who have been trading and trading options for 10, 20, even 30 years. And the bottom line is we all know that there are strategies for every scenario, right? What we’d like to do is break those down and really tailor a specific strategy or approach based on someone’s experience. So someone who’s just starting off — I’m probably not going to be discussing iron condors or broken-wing butterflies with them because you’ve got to start and build that base. And we are very, very much about making sure everybody learns from the ground up. But some of the more experienced traders, where maybe we would typically talk about just doing a call spread or a put spread, we’ll dive into something that’s a little bit more intricate, whether it’s ratios or whatever it might be. So that’s the beauty for us educators as well — we’re not just always teaching the same thing over and over. Just like the market, it is ever-changing, which is great for us. 

Jeff Praissman

Scott, while we’re here — you and I basically have the pleasure every other week of talking markets. Going back to our usual stuff, what have you seen over the markets in the last five days or so that really caught your interest and where do you think the markets are headed? 

Scott Bauer

I think first and foremost we all have to be aware of what’s going on in the bond market. And even though the likelihood is that this afternoon, in a few hours, there’s going to be a cut, why have we seen the 10-year go from right around 4%, even just under 4%, up to 4.2%? 
I think that should raise some level of concern just regarding the data that’s been missing — that eco data that is really now starting to flow — that maybe many see inflation as not under control. Inflation is still up near that 3% number. 
If we look at global rates, what are we seeing? They’re going higher, whether it’s in Japan, Germany… Bank of Canada came out this morning — they kept rates the same; they didn’t lower them. So I think that is somewhat of a concern. 
But so far, the market has been unbelievably resilient to that. Is that going to be the case after Powell speaks today? We’ll have to see. 

Jeff Praissman 

And speaking of that, we spoke back during Thanksgiving — that’s typically a lull week, and it was actually pretty crazy. So with the Christmas holiday and New Year’s — although the market is open a full day on the 31st — I think it’s safe to say a lot of decision makers may be on vacations between Christmas and New Year’s, maybe leaving second, third, or fourth in command in charge. Do you expect to not have a holiday lull given the way this entire year has been? I know we’re fast-forwarding a little bit… 

Scott Bauer 

No — and that’s exactly right, Jeff. Typically we do see that lull. This year has been anything but historical — not following historical norms. From the beginning of the year on, we have seen things happen that nobody would’ve expected, that history doesn’t tell us should happen, including what happened a few weeks ago over the Thanksgiving holiday where it’s typically pretty light — and we really saw volume tick up. So I actually expect it to be pretty busy into the end of the year. What does “pretty busy” mean? I think we’re going to see volatility remain pretty elevated. I don’t see a lull going through the holidays. And you know what — there’s going to be a lot of positioning coming after the announcement today, people trying to get ahead of what might happen in the first quarter. 

Andrew Wilkinson

Scott, the misery index is at the highest since 2023. That’s the combination of the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation — so that’s at, I think, 7.3 combined. Where does it feel like the economy is heading right now? 

Scott Bauer

Well, it’s actually not a cliché, but the explanation out there is this K-shaped economy. And I think in any walk of life — even if you go outside here in Vegas and walk around and talk to people, you’re going to see that. 
You guys go back home out on the East Coast and talk to people walking down the street — you’re going to see that. I see that whether it’s on the trading floor in Chicago or amongst friends, neighbors, people. And I think that big divergence is a problem. It really is a problem because that upper end is doing okay — the market is near all-time highs and everything is going great. But middle class on down, people are really struggling right now. And I think that’s something tough going into the new year. 

Jeff Praissman

Scott, this has been great. We appreciate you having us out here at this conference. It’s been a real pleasure to talk with different levels of traders from the educational standpoint and get a feel for what they’re looking for in educational product as well. So from mine and Andrew’s standpoint, this has been a really great conference to be part of, and we appreciate you including us. Until next time, you can check out more from Scott at prospertradingacademy.com and also catch material from him on our IBKR.com Educational Campus website. Just click on “Education,” scroll down to “Campus,” and you can see podcasts, webinars, articles, and everything else. 

Scott Bauer

Thank you, everybody. 

Jeff Praissman

Thanks. 

Andrew Wilkinson

Thanks, Scott. Thanks, Jeff. See you soon.