IPOcalypse Now: The Boom Returns

The IPO market is back with a bang! 2025 has seen a surge in listings, capital raised, and day-one performance that rivals the best years in recent history. In this IBKR Podcast episode, NASDAQ’s Michael Normyle breaks down the forces behind the boom, the sectors leading the charge, and what might signal the next turning point.

Summary – IBKR Podcasts Ep. 312

The following is a summary of a live audio recording and may contain errors in spelling or grammar. Although IBKR has edited for clarity no material changes have been made.

Jeff Praissman

Hi everyone, this is Jeff Praissman with the Interactive Brokers Podcast, and it’s my pleasure to welcome back NASDAQ’s Michael Normyle for his monthly podcast with us on the economy. Hey Michael, how are you? 

Michael Normyle

Doing well, thanks. Glad to be back. 

Jeff Praissman

Oh, it’s great to have you back. Today we’ve got a pretty exciting subject. I know almost exactly 11 months ago, we talked about IPOs on our podcast—episode 209, IPO Trends and Forecast in an Election Year. We’re revisiting that topic now, with the IPO market roaring back this year with, I think, 288 listings raising $52 billion. 

Michael, what key factors have driven this dramatic turnaround compared to the relatively quiet 2023–2024 period? 

Michael Normyle

Yeah, this has been a really strong year for IPOs, even though we still have a couple of months left. Like you said—288 listings, $52 billion in capital raised, and 184 operating company IPOs. These are the best numbers we’ve seen since 2021, and like I said, still two-plus months to go. As to why: I think it’s the culmination of improvements over the last couple of years. Things were relatively quiet in 2022 and 2023, but there was improvement in 2024, and further improvement this year. So I think there was some pipeline building up in recent years. After some volatility earlier this year, we’ve seen a lot of positives that make IPOs more attractive—another year of strong returns, improved valuation growth, and still low volatility. At the same time, you’ve got the Fed returning to rate cuts, and investor confidence staying high. So even though many of these factors were in place last year, seeing them again this year adds to the confidence among companies considering IPOs. 

Jeff Praissman

And your data shows larger IPOs have generally performed better post-listing. What advantages do these bigger companies have in today’s market environment that smaller IPOs might lack? 

Michael Normyle

First, I think companies IPOing this year have outperformed the broader market on a cap-weighted basis. Companies that IPOed this year are up 21% year-to-date—that’s better than the S&P 500’s 15% gain.  Within those IPOs, we’ve seen companies with bigger day-one market caps and larger IPO capitalizations showing stronger returns compared to smaller ones. Looking at market performance in recent years for already public companies, returns have been driven more by fundamentals—actual earnings—than multiple expansion. So when bigger companies go public, they generally have a better chance of having already established those earnings. They’re giving investors what they want to see, and I think that’s contributed to their returns. Plus, some are in sectors that have seen real tailwinds this year—like AI and crypto, for example. 

Jeff Praissman

And Mike, we’re obviously in the middle of a government shutdown, which has temporarily halted the US IPO market among other things. How would this disruption affect the pipeline and sentiment, especially since it’s extended well beyond the historic average of eight days? 

Michael Normyle

Yeah, we’re actually now at the second-longest shutdown in history. The question is whether we’ll pass 2018–2019’s record of 35 days. Technically, the SEC created a path for companies to IPO during the shutdown. Companies can provide a range of prices for their IPO instead of the typical fixed price. The catch is they need to wait 20 days from their IPO registration instead of the usual seven to nine days when the government is open. That extra wait time creates more risk for some exogenous factor that could turn market sentiment negative. We’ve seen some companies take this route. Still, for those that don’t use the SEC’s path, they might need to refile their financials, which would delay their IPO. For example, financials can only be used until November 12th, so we might see delays where companies need to submit their September 30th financials. Ultimately, if markets hold up, there’s a good chance this is just a soft patch while the government is shut down, and those delayed IPOs will go ahead once everything reopens. 

Jeff Praissman

And I want to touch on an area that maybe some of our listeners aren’t too familiar with—Stockholm and their IPO market. They’ve actually raised nearly six times more capital than last year despite having fewer listings. What makes the Nordic markets particularly attractive to companies seeking to go public right now? 

Michael Normyle

Nasdaq Stockholm is seeing a lot of the same positives as the US—strong returns, strong valuation growth, low volatility, economic resilience, and improved sentiment. Those are cyclical factors, but there are also structural ones that make Stockholm stand out within Europe. They generally have a higher risk appetite compared to other European markets. Swedish households invest over half of their savings in stocks, which is more than double the Eurozone average. Sweden is also very tech-friendly, which has helped incubate some of the global tech companies that originated there. All these factors are why Nasdaq Stockholm raised over 6 billion euros this year. 

Jeff Praissman

And both the US and Stockholm IPO Pulse indexes have risen for five consecutive months. Could you explain to our listeners why the Pulse indexes are reliable indicators of future IPO activity? 

Michael Normyle

Yeah, the IPO Pulses help us forecast IPO activity in the US and Stockholm. We update them quarterly in our Market Makers blog, which you can subscribe to on nasdaq.com. They both have six components—things I mentioned earlier: returns, valuations, sentiment, volatility, plus some proprietary data. Each component was selected as a theoretical driver of IPO activity and then backtested against historical IPO data to show they anticipate future IPO activity.  Right now, most of these components are pushing in a direction that supports IPO activity. 

Jeff Praissman

And we just discussed these two strong IPO performances—both in the US and Sweden. Are there other global markets experiencing similar resurgences, or is this really just unique to the US and the Stockholm Stock Exchange? 

Michael Normyle

I can’t speak to every market, but like I mentioned, Stockholm really stands out within Europe as having a particularly strong year. And of course, the US is a global leader in terms of capital raised. Also, Hong Kong has had a strong year, but certainly the US and Stockholm really do stand out globally this year. 

Jeff Praissman

And the data that you guys produce shows that in 2025, IPOs were averaging a 34% gain on day one, which is pretty incredible. How does this compare to historic patterns of IPO performance? Is this normal, or is it outperforming, underperforming? 

Michael Normyle

It’s definitely outperforming. Focusing on operating companies and weighted by capital raised, that 34% figure reflects the average day-one gain in the US this year. It’s the second-best average IPO pop—day-one performance, IPO pop, whatever you want to call it—in the US going back to at least 2014. The only year stronger was 2020, with a 45% average. 

Jeff Praissman

And beyond these headline numbers, what sectors are driving this IPO boom? Do you see any emerging trends? Is it all concentrated in one area? And what types of companies are choosing to go public now versus, say, last year? 

Michael Normyle

The big leader this year is information technology, with over 50 operating companies choosing to IPO. Then there’s industrials with more than 40, followed by healthcare with nearly 30. Financials and consumer sectors both have over 20. So there are a few trends in there—AI, crypto, aerospace—but you can see it’s actually pretty broad-based across a lot of sectors. 

Jeff Praissman

Okay, and I want to end with a last question. Looking at historical patterns, IPO markets tend to be cyclical. So given that we’re in a strong upturn, what indicators, if any, suggest we’re approaching a peak in the cycle? Do you think this strength will remain for the foreseeable future? 

Michael Normyle

Of course, I’d say what to watch is the IPO Pulses, right? Based on their forecast window, they’re currently indicating that the strength we’re seeing is likely to remain in place until early 2026. And again, that’s at least—that’s just based on how far ahead they’re reliable. But we’ll have to watch the IPO Pulses develop in the coming months to see if that strength is likely to continue beyond that. And of course, you can check that out in the Market Makers blog, which we publish quarterly on this subject and weekly on other topics too. 

Jeff Praissman

Michael, this has been great. Love having you come by the studio. For our listeners, for more from Michael and Nasdaq, you can go to nasdaq.com or visit our website under Education. You can listen to past podcasts, webinars, and other great material that Nasdaq collaborates on with Interactive Brokers. Michael, thanks for swinging by! 

Michael Normyle

Yeah, thanks!