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Posted September 22, 2025 at 1:05 pm
Odds of a partial or full government shutdown by October 1 reached a fresh record of 62% earlier this morning, up from the highs of 45% reached on September 9 and September 18. On Friday, the House approved a short-term extension keeping operations running into November, but it failed to gain the 60 votes required in the Senate. Medical funding is the most significant disagreement, with Democrats generally seeking to reverse some of the Medicaid cuts while extending health insurance subsidies.
Canada’s New Housing Price Index is expected to arrive at 0% in tomorrow morning’s report. Against this backdrop, there are some undervalued contracts below and above 0. I find the risk-reward profiles of the “No” at 0.2% and the “Yes” at -0.3% attractive, as the result hasn’t exceeded 0.2% in over three years while a move beneath -0.2% is also rare, occurring just twice since the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. Meanwhile, coming in under -0.2% is especially challenging following four consecutive months of declines. The levels are costing $0.91 and $0.79 and I additionally like the -0.4% threshold which is going for $0.86. These trades are profitable on a number as low as -0.2% or as high as 0.2%, offering meaningful wiggle room away from the consensus.
Singapore’s CPI is expected to come in at 0.6% year over year (y/y) and historically it has a low deviation rate, meaning that it generally arrives near the consensus. Against this backdrop I think the “Yes” and “No” answers at 0.3% and 0.9% are undervalued at $0.86 and $0.96. Furthermore, of the 14 forecasters in the monthly Reuters poll, the minimum and maximum projections are 0.5% and 0.8%, essentially implying that a huge beat or miss is needed for the results to hit 0.3% or 1% that would result in a loss. The “Nos” at 1.1% and 1.3% are additionally attractive and are going for $0.95 and $0.98.
The forecast trade picks here are the “Yeses” at $2.75 and $2.95 as well as the “No” at $3.35 because the levels are not even close to the current four-week trend of $3.17 (see chart below). Furthermore, those figures, which range from $0.97 to $0.98 in cost, haven’t been breached in over twelve months. My estimate of tomorrow’s figure is $3.15.
Source for Images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of September 22, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight his preferred “Yes and No” answers throughout different levels.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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