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Posted August 25, 2025 at 12:21 pm
I’m expecting unemployment claims to remain close to recent trends in this Thursday’s report and my estimate is near the consensus of 230k; I’m at 226k. I like a range-bound trade for this indicator again, considering that it’s only exceeded 250k once in in the past 12 months and came in at 210k or under only three times during the same period, and all occurring around the new-year. For those reasons and in light of stabilizing labor conditions that don’t point to a significant jump or meaningful plunge in applications, I find the risk-reward profile of the “Yes”/”No” combination at 210k and 250k attractive at $0.91 and $0.96.
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Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 25, 2025.
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