Initial unemployment claims have arrived north of 230,000 for five consecutive weeks and forecasters expect tomorrow’s print to mark the sixth. Meanwhile, the headline figure has failed to exceed 250,000 every week since the seven-day period ending October 5, roughly nine months ago. And of the 38 economists surveyed by Reuters, the median estimate stands at 240,000 with the minimum and maximum projections at 235,000 and 250,000. My expectation is at 243,000. In light of decelerating labor conditions amidst a lack of layoffs and the consensus amongst economic data watchers, I like the risk-reward profile of a “Yes/No” combination that posts a profit on a number as low as 231,000 or as high as 250,000. The “Yes” answer at 230,000 costs just $0.73 while the “No” at 250,000 is priced $0.82 for a total of $1.55. A result within the range delivers $2.00 back to the investor and the trade carries a max loss of $0.82.
Don’t Expect US Unemployment to Exceed 4.3%
I anticipate that tomorrow’s unemployment rate will tick higher to 4.3% but not north of that, since a monthly move of over 0.1% is rare and typically occurs during times of significant labor market stress. We’re not at that point yet in the economic cycle and I believe the “No” answer at 4.3% is undervalued at $0.79. May’s joblessness level was 4.2%, so a 0.2% increase is required for “Team No” to lose here. I also like the threshold above at 4.4% whose “No” is priced at $0.97.
Tomorrow’s Payrolls Could Surprise in Either Direction
I don’t feel comfortable pointing to a specific trade for tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls since the deviation rate is particularly high for the indicator and current pricing doesn’t offer much attractiveness at the moment. But IBKR Forecast Traders are projecting a modest beat since the median estimate stands at 110,000 but the “Yes” at 108,700 is offered at $0.58. Furthermore, the marketplace assigns 8% odds of a figure at or below 50,000, and a 12% chance of a result that exceeds 150,000.
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Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of July 2, 2025.
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