Blue Line Futures Research 6.23.25

Morning Express: 

E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)

S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 6018.00, down 16.25 on Friday and 13.50 on the week

NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 21,844.75, down 100.50 on Friday and 16.00 on the week

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures opened lower Sunday night after the U.S. carried out missile strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran. On the one hand, this can be seen as a significant point of escalation in the regional conflict, but markets have reacted rather calmly. Index futures pared all initial losses, Crude Oil pared all gains, and Gold spent much of the session in the red. On the other hand, the strikes have debilitated Iran, and many of its allies have already been weakened on other fronts. Markets typically attempt to front-run escalation, while such pinnacles can, at times, forecast de-escalation, and that is what markets are discounting. Additionally, Iran has only threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz. Such a move would harm China which relies heavily on imports thorough the passageway, and it is reported the U.S. has called on China to prevent this. We now await further developments.

Flash PMIs for June are due at 8:45 am CT and traders must keep an ear to the ground for Fed speak.

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ spiked into the Friday open and expiration event, both failing at resistance that is now a major three-star mark and line in the sand at 6067.75-6073.75 and 22,130-22,158. Despite the spike lower on the open last night, we will still lean on Friday’s intraday low as a first key support coming in at 6003.25-6006.50 and 21,765-21,796. As the U.S. session gets underway, we will lean on our Pivot and point of balance, continued price action above here will pave the way for higher prices, with these pockets coming in at……

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Energy Update: 

WTI Crude Oil Futures (August Futures)

Friday’s Settlement: 73.84, up +2.55 [+3.58%] for the week; up +0.34 [+0.46%] for the day  
WTI Crude oil futures rallied sharply last week on the escalation of the Iranian conflict

Over the weekend, the US struck a primary Iranian nuclear site in a specialized operation. 

Today, WTI Crude Oil is down -0.13

Futures are sharply off their Sunday night highs. After the US strikes, futures opened at 78.00 and made highs of 78.40. From that open, futures were consistently sold throughout the night.

Profit taking on the overnight with limited market maker risk-taking likely led to the sell-off.  There was talk of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz yesterday but we’ve had no official word yet.

There’s a feeling that this conflict is over after the US strikes. While I hope that’s true, I wouldn’t make that bet just yet. Iran and its allies will likely hold hold out as long as possible.

We took the majority of our long positions off last night in the CTA in a profit-taking effort.

Data Releases:

N/A

Technical Analysis:

After posting a sharp overnight rally, August futures are trading back into key resistance. While profit taking was advisable for active clients overnight, futures are now ~5.00 off their highs. Flows at the open of the US trading session will be important to watch.

If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked by Iran, $80 oil is too cheap.  
For intraday trading, our pivot and point of balance is set at….

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Originally Posted on June 23, 2025