- Solve real problems with our hands-on interface
- Progress from basic puts and calls to advanced strategies
Interactive Options Course
Posted May 11, 2026 at 11:15 am
Briefing.com Summary:
*President Trump called Iran’s response to the peace proposal “totally unacceptable.”
*Oil prices are up, with supply concerns still simmering.
*President Trump and Xi Jinping will meet in Beijing May 14-15.
Stop us if any of this sounds familiar.
There was a peace proposal put forth last week that could end the Iran war. Oil prices plummeted on the news, stocks rose to record highs, and everything was hunky-dory in conjunction with a massive AI-induced rally in the mega-cap stocks and semiconductor stocks.
Over the weekend, President Trump deemed Iran’s response to the peace proposal as “totally unacceptable.” Oil prices have risen on this news, stock prices are backing up a tiny bit, and everything as it relates to AI still seems hunky-dory.
Currently, the S&P 500 futures are down 11 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 41 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 81 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value.
Recall that WTI crude dropped more than $10.00 when the aforementioned peace proposal hit the wires. They are up $2.77 today, or 2.9%, to $98.18/bbl, even though President Trump said last week at the time of the proposal that the bombing would start again big time if Iran didn’t agree to what it had already agreed to.
There is a dose of concern, then, that the Iran situation could take a turn for the worse, but frankly there isn’t any real fear that it will. A 2.9% increase in oil prices on the other side of a “totally unacceptable” response from Iran is a token response.
Traders are cognizant that President Trump will be in China May 14-15 to meet with Xi Jinping, and they are betting that it is unlikely he will make the oil supply situation worse for China ahead of that summit by ordering a debilitating bombing of Iran’s infrastructure. They are also betting that he won’t want to make the gas price situation worse for U.S. consumers.
They could be wrong, but the price action isn’t there to support any other conclusion. What it supports is a knowingness that the Iran war and blockade of the Strait of Hormuz are still a thing.
In the same vein, a six-week win streak for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite (and seven weeks for the Russell 2000) suggests the stock market sees things in a positive light, with the strong earnings growth and AI momentum blinding out the geopolitical mess.
And, so, we come in to Monday with a slight downward bias. Reports will suggest it is because of the jump in oil prices and the ongoing war. That fits neatly with the leaning of the equity futures market, but in reality the leaning of the equity futures market has more to do with some general profit-taking activity after a big run by the stock market.
Since the end of March, the Nasdaq is up 21.6%, the Russell 2000 is up 14.6%, the S&P 500 is up 13.3%, the S&P MidCap 400 is up 9.6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 7.1%.
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from Briefing.com and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Briefing.com and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
Security futures involve a high degree of risk and are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading security futures, please read the Security Futures Risk Disclosure Statement. For a copy visit ibkr.com
Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com.
Related Articles
Join The Conversation
For specific platform feedback and suggestions, please submit it directly to our team using these instructions.
If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services.
We encourage you to look through our FAQs before posting. Your question may already be covered!