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Posted September 29, 2026 at 11:45 am
Micron Technology Inc. (NASDAQ:MU) has become one of the biggest winners of the artificial-intelligence boom.
But investors betting on its earnings reports have often learned an uncomfortable lesson: great numbers do not necessarily make great short-term trades.
Across its last 10 quarterly reports, Micron beat Wall Street expectations on both earnings and revenue every single time.
Yet investors who bought immediately before those reports often lost money.
Shares fell the following session in six of the 10 cases. One week later, they were lower six times. One month later, it was still a coin flip.
The numbers suggest an important distinction ahead of Micron’s upcoming earnings report on Sept. 30.
Consistent beats have strengthened the business, but they haven’t made earnings day a reliable short-term entry point.
The table below covers the last 10 reports.
Micron beat on earnings per share 10 times out of 10, and it beat on revenue 10 times out of 10. The average revenue surprise was 6.9%.
However, the stock rose the next day only four times. The average next-day move was +1.6%, but the median was -1.9%.
The March 2026 report delivered the biggest revenue surprise in the sample. Sales came in 24.3% above estimates. Even so, the stock fell 3.8% the next day and was down 23% a week later.
The June 2026 report followed a similar path. Revenue beat by 16.2%, and the shares jumped 15.7% the next day. A month later, they were 14.1% below the pre-report close.
A trader who held for a week after the report lost money six of 10 times, with a median return of -5.4%. Holding for a month produced a median return of -1.0%. Excluding the December 2025 report, the average one-month return falls to -3.8%.
| Report date | EPS actual / est. | EPS surprise | Revenue actual / est. | Revenue surprise | +1 day | +1 week | +1 month | +3 months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 24, 2026 | $25.11 / $20.49 | +22.6% | $41.46B / $35.69B | +16.2% | +15.7% | -7.0% | -14.1% | +3.1% |
| Mar 18, 2026 | $12.20 / $8.79 | +38.8% | $23.86B / $19.19B | +24.3% | -3.8% | -23.0% | -2.9% | +145.6% |
| Dec 17, 2025 | $4.78 / $3.94 | +21.3% | $13.64B / $12.83B | +6.3% | +10.2% | +26.3% | +72.5% | +79.3% |
| Sep 23, 2025 | $3.03 / $2.77 | +9.4% | $11.32B / $11.11B | +1.9% | -2.8% | +9.5% | +24.2% | +66.0% |
| Jun 25, 2025 | $1.91 / $1.59 | +20.1% | $9.30B / $8.84B | +5.2% | -1.0% | -3.9% | -12.6% | +23.3% |
| Mar 20, 2025 | $1.56 / $1.44 | +8.3% | $8.05B / $7.91B | +1.8% | -8.0% | -14.1% | -31.8% | +18.5% |
| Dec 18, 2024 | $1.79 / $1.73 | +3.5% | $8.71B / $8.68B | +0.3% | -16.2% | -14.7% | +0.9% | -9.4% |
| Sep 25, 2024 | $1.18 / $1.11 | +6.3% | $7.75B / $7.65B | +1.3% | +14.7% | +6.3% | +12.7% | -6.2% |
| Jun 26, 2024 | $0.62 / $0.48 | +29.2% | $6.81B / $6.66B | +2.3% | -7.1% | -7.6% | -24.2% | -22.8% |
| Mar 20, 2024 | $0.42 / -$0.26 | ∞ | $5.82B / $5.33B | +9.2% | +14.1% | +22.5% | +13.4% | +45.0% |
| Average | +17.7% | +6.9% | +1.6% | -0.6% | +3.8% | +34.2% | ||
| Median | +20.1% | +3.7% | -1.9% | -5.4% | -1.0% | +20.9% | ||
| Win rate | 4/10 | 4/10 | 5/10 | 7/10 |
Source: Tradingview / Returns are measured from the close on the report date.
The three-month column looks much stronger. After seven of the 10 reports, the stock was higher three months later, with an average gain of 34.2%.
The March 2026 report shows the contrast best. Shares lost 23% within a week despite enormous EPS and revenue beats. Three months later, Micron was up almost 146%.
The historical lesson, then, is not that Micron’s earnings are disappointing. Quite the opposite.
The company has repeatedly delivered more profit and revenue than Wall Street expected. But investors buying specifically for the earnings reaction have often faced poor short-term returns.
For Micron, history suggests the holding period has mattered more than the earnings beat itself.
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Originally Posted September 29, 2026 – Should You Buy Micron Stock Ahead of Earnings? Here’s What History Says
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