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Posted September 3, 2026 at 10:45 am
With tech earnings season wrapping up and Nvidia closing out the cycle, the Nasdaq-100 finished up about 1% despite some late-August volatility. But for retail traders, the real story is shifting to the Federal Reserve and the upcoming September 16th FOMC meeting.
Expectations for a Fed rate hike have surged, jumping from 35% to as high as 66% following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Markets quickly zeroed in on Warsh’s comment that the Fed has “work to do” regarding its 2% inflation target, particularly with the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading holding steady at 3.4%.
While some analysts believe Warsh’s acknowledgment that inflation is “moving to our objective” signals a more patient approach, the ambiguity leaves traders in a difficult spot. With significant economic data still pending, including the nonfarm payrolls employment report on September 4th and the next CPI release on September 11th, market probabilities could swing wildly before the Fed officially decides on rates.
In this video, Jim Iuorio breaks down the latest market reactions, what these shifting expectations mean for broader equity and interest rate markets, and how traders can utilize tools like CME FedWatch to track policy probabilities in real-time.
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Originally Posted September 2, 2026
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