- Solve real problems with our hands-on interface
- Progress from basic puts and calls to advanced strategies
Interactive Options Course
Finance Courses and Lessons
Topics
Language
Finance Courses and Lessons
Topics
Language
Posted February 23, 2026 at 12:00 pm
Most of the blame for the below-expectations 1.4 percent fourth quarter GDP increase in the advance estimate can be placed on the government shutdown of October 1-November 12, 2025. Disruptions in economic activity and delays in data reporting mean that many of the assumptions in the first report are likely to be revised more than usual as the catch-up continues. The second estimate for fourth quarter GDP is set for Friday, March 13 at 8:30 ET. It may well see a bigger revision than is typical.
The largest contribution (1.58) to growth in the fourth quarter is a 2.4 percent increase in personal consumption expenditures. However, the composition of the increase suggests that consumers are spending less on discretionary items and more essential services. Spending on durable goods is down 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter after rising 1.6 percent in the third quarter. Consumers are pulling back on big-ticket items like motor vehicles. Nondurables spending is up 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter after up 3.9 percent in the third quarter. Falling gasoline prices is a factor here. Spending on services is up 3.4 percent in the fourth quarter, slightly less than up 3.6 percent in the third quarter. Disinflation in services continues at a glacial pace.
The PCE deflator for December shows that disinflation had yet to resume at year-end. The PCE deflator for all items is up 2.9 percent year-over-year in December, rising slightly from up 2.8 percent in November and 2.7 percent in October. The PCE deflator excluding food and energy is up 3.0 percent in December from a year earlier, faster than the up 2.8 percent in November and October. The PCE for durable goods is up 2.1 percent from a year ago, a jump from the up 1.0 percent in November and up 0.9 percent in October. The PCE index for nondurables is up 1.6 percent year-over-year and remains in line with readings for the prior three months. The PCE index for services is up 3.4 percent where it has been sticking for the last four months.
The December data may reflect the last big effects of the tariffs imposed earlier this year. January data for the CPI and final-demand PPI suggest that disinflation is set to resume.
—
Originally Posted February 20, 2026 – Last Week in Review: Look for Bigger than Usual Revision in Weak Q4 GDP Report
Important Legal Notice: Econoday has attempted to verify the information contained in this calendar. However, any aspect of such info may change without notice. Econoday does not provide investment advice, and does not represent that any of the information or related analysis is accurate or complete at any time.
© 1998-2022 Econoday, Inc. All Rights Reserved
Information posted on IBKR Campus that is provided by third-parties does NOT constitute a recommendation that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Campus are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
This material is from Econoday Inc. and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Econoday Inc. and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
For specific platform feedback and suggestions, please submit it directly to our team using these instructions.
If you have an account-specific question or concern, please reach out to Client Services.
We encourage you to look through our FAQs before posting. Your question may already be covered!
Related Articles
Yo vivo en PERU, no conozco este tipo de operaciones, quisiera saber si es posible que el sistema se maneja solo con IA y si fuera asĂ cuanto es el monto mĂnimo de inscripciĂłn para participar.
Espero su respuesta. Muchas gracias.