Fear and hope for Iran war at hand-wringing crossroad

Briefing.com Summary:

*Geopolitical angst is in the air, with a key 8:00 p.m. ET deadline tonight.

*Oil futures are on the rise, with concerns about ongoing supply disruptions linked to the Iran war.

*Durable goods orders were weak in February but looked better after transportation was excluded.

Today is a hand-wringing day if there ever was one. Market participants are dealing with the stress of an 8:00 p.m. ET deadline for Iran to “open” the Strait of Hormuz or face the destruction of its power and energy infrastructure and the death of “a whole civilization” tonight.

That is President Trump’s proclamation that is running in tandem with his hope that it doesn’t come to that. Accordingly, the market has some hope that it won’t come to that either, yet that is running in tandem with a fear that it just might.

The result is an equity market that lacks conviction, an oil market that is frazzled, and a Treasury market that is stuck between growth and inflation concerns.

Currently, the S&P 500 futures are down 25 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 136 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 129 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. WTI crude futures are up 2.4% to $115.11/bbl; the 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 3.84%, and the 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.33%.

The Iran matter is front-and-center, as it should be. It is the market mover. Everything else is background music/noise.

That includes the rally in health insurance stocks, like Dow component UnitedHealth (UNH), after CMS announced a higher-than-expected payment rate for Medicare Advantage plans. It includes Broadcom’s (AVGO) long-term agreement to develop and supply TPUs to Google (GOOG/GOOGL), Casey’s General Stores’ (CASY) addition to the S&P 500 on April 9, Samsung’s (SSNLF) record Q1 results, and the February Durable Goods Orders report.

Specifically, durable goods orders decreased 1.4% month-over-month in February (Briefing.com consensus: 0.5%) following a downwardly revised 0.5% decline (from 0.0%) in January. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders increased 0.8% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.5%) following a downwardly revised 0.3% increase (from 0.4%) in January.

The key takeaway from the report is that the weakness in February was concentrated largely in transportation and capital goods orders. Otherwise, order activity was decent, highlighted by a 0.6% increase in new orders for nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft—a proxy for business spending.

The latter is a welcome consideration, but of course it predates the Iran war, which has brought its share of unwelcome developments. What it brings in the next 12-24 hours is a thought exercise right now that is exhausting for beleaguered markets.

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Originally Posted April 7, 2026 – Fear and hope for Iran war at hand-wringing crossroad