Trump Says He’s Chosen the Next Fed Chair, Forecasters Think It’s Hassett: Dec. 1, 2025

It was a busy Thanksgiving weekend on ForecastEx last Saturday and Sunday as 13.7 million contracts were traded across both days. The daily weather contracts covering the major US cities continued to be a big hit, as traders engaged with the likelihoods of what the hottest Fahrenheit temperatures will be on a given date. Other popular themes were which political party will gain majority control of the House of Representatives, will the Fed cut in December and who will be the nominee to lead the central bank. President Trump said yesterday that he’s made his decision, and we have witnessed Kevin Hassett’s odds, director of the National Economic Council, jump to a record of 88% this morning before paring some of those gains and settling in at 77%.

Eurozone CPI Trade Idea

The Eurozone’s Consumer Price Index is expected to come in unchanged at 2.1% and sports a subdued deviation rate, meaning that historically, it tends to arrive near the median estimate. Indeed, it rarely misses or beats by more than 0.1% in either direction and against that backdrop the “No” trades at 2.2% and 2.3%, priced at $0.86 and $0.94, offer favorable risk-reward dynamics in my opinion. They require the result to exceed estimates by 0.2% and/or 0.3% to lose money, rare occurrences.

Eurozone Unemployment Expected to Come in Unchanged

The Eurozone’s October unemployment rate is expected to be unchanged at 6.3% and the “No” at that particular level offers value to participants in my opinion. The trade is profitable in two out of three instances, whether joblessness drops or remains the same, but it loses if the indicator increases. Additionally, the figure hasn’t exceeded 6.3% since August of last year and the monthly Reuters poll of 33 forecasters all project a flat number.   

Lack of Gasoline Volatility Presents Opportunity

Real-time prices of gasoline and crude oil futures signal a modest increase in retail costs to about $3.08 in the week ending today versus the $3.061 reported in the prior period. The $2.90 “Yes” and $3.30 “No” thresholds aren’t in the cards for this week’s publications considering a lack of volatility in recent days that would be necessary to reach those distant levels. Those trades offer favorable risk-reward dynamics since they should be off the board in my view but are available instead and costing $0.95 and $0.96. 

Source for images: ForecastEx

Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 1, 2025. Red circles around the thresholds were inserted by J. Torres to highlight Yes” and “No” answers throughout different levels.

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