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Posted August 26, 2026 at 1:55 pm
The last two prints of initial jobless claims have come in at 206k and 212k, and tomorrow’s release is projected to arrive at 208k. The range of potential outcomes is particularly wide, however, as the Reuters poll of 37 forecasters stand at a minimum of 200k and a maximum of 215k. Meanwhile, the $0.27 210K “Yes” in Interactive Brokers Prediction Market appears to be cheap, as it should cost closer to $0.40 in my view since it’s so close to the median estimate. Over and under, the “Yeses” at 220k, 200k and 190k are going for $0.03, $0.75 and $0.88.
The Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index hasn’t exceeded 2.71% for four consecutive weeks and in consideration of a slower pace of cyclical data in recent weeks, I don’t think it’ll come in well above that level in tomorrow’s update. For this reason, I find the 2.8% “No” undervalued at just $0.60. Over and Under in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Market, the “Nos” at 3.2%, 3%, 2.6% and 2.4% are going for $0.90, $0.85, $0.37 and $0.13.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 26, 2026.
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