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Posted May 29, 2026 at 1:03 pm
This Tuesday morning’s eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices is anticipated to feature an annualized acceleration from April as heavy energy costs pressure the indicator north. The 3% from last month is expected to rise to 3.3% in May and the path to a deceleration to 2.9% is extremely narrow, especially in consideration of the unfavorable base effects from 2025’s subdued oil charges. Emblematic of the elevated likelihood of another 3-handle is the monthly Reuters poll consisting of 27 forecasters carrying minimum and maximum projections of 3% and 3.5% amidst a median of 3.3%. Against this backdrop, the Interactive Brokers prediction market currently has undervalued contracts below the 3% threshold, in my opinion, as the “Yeses” at 2.9%, 2.8% and 2.7% are going for $0.76, $0.85 and $0.89. In my view, these levels should be closer to the nineties in reflection of a probable increase.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of May 29, 2026.
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