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Posted August 19, 2026 at 1:11 pm
A 0.4% month-over-month (m/m) decline in Canadian new home prices isn’t common, occurring only four times in the past 24 prints. Additionally, a fall of -0.5% hasn’t occurred throughout that two-year period, illustrating that a drop of that magnitude is rare. Against this backdrop, June’s result was -0.1% and tomorrow morning’s July number is projected to arrive at 0%; however, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets carry undervalued “Yeses,” in my opinion, at -0.8%, -0.6%, -0.4% and -0.2% which are going for $0.91, $0.82, $0.53, and $0.18. All of those thresholds would return $1.00 back to investors on a figure that meets expectations at 0% or a statistic that even misses at -0.1%.
Hong Kong’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to cool from 2% in June to 1.7% in July, but this volatile indicator has a wide range of potential outcomes. Emblematic of the variability is the monthly Reuters poll of 8 forecasters sporting minimum and maximum estimates of 1.5% and 2.1%. The Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets, meanwhile, have the “Yeses” at 1%, 1.5% and 2% going for $0.99, $0.89 and $0.08 for tomorrow’s publication.
The Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets price an 80% chance that the Japanese CPI rose m/m, as the “Yes” at 113.6 is going for $0.80. The 113.6 level happened to be June’s result, and against the backdrop of sticky inflation, global costs that increased in July and an expectation for accelerating annualized cost forces, coming in above that threshold should carry a probability closer to 94% in my view. Over and under, the “Yeses” at 112.8 and 114.4 are priced at $0.95 and $0.03, while the former is additionally undervalued in my opinion as it pertains to tomorrow’s release.
US initial unemployment claims are expected to total around 210k again after the prior period arrived at 209k. The summer is a confusing time to estimate layoffs, however, and the weekly Reuters poll of 33 forecasters range from projections of 198k to 216k. Against this backdrop, the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets feature the “Yeses” at 190k, 200k, 210k and 220k at $0.90, $0.73, $0.42 and $0.13 for tomorrow’s release.
The 50-50 level in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets pertaining to tomorrow’s Dallas Fed’s Weekly Economic Index is standing at 2.8%. That level would mark an acceleration from the prior print’s 2.7% and be the strongest result in four weeks. Over and under, however, the “Yeses” at 2.6%, 3% and 3.2% are going for $0.74, $0.27 and $0.12.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 19, 2026.
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