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Posted August 27, 2026 at 1:17 pm
The 0.8% “No” contract on tomorrow’s Canada gross domestic product (GDP) print, priced at $0.43, is undervalued in my opinion because it’s a level that hasn’t been exceeded since the pandemic recovery in 2021. Quarter-to-quarter (q/q) growth that elevated is tough to achieve; however, there could be a strong rebound after the past two periods’ 0% and -0.2% results, although I believe it’s unlikely. Additionally, a figure of 0.9% q/q doesn’t seem in the cards as the Canadian economy has struggled recently against the backdrop of sluggish consumer spending and slow hiring. Over and under in the Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets, meanwhile, the “No” contracts at 0.4% and 1.2% are going for $0.12 and $0.88.
Tomorrow’s University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment revision is likely to remain around the originally reported 51, as the changes historically are typically plus or minus 1. Against this backdrop, I find the $0.69 “Yes” contract with a 50 threshold particularly attractive because I think we’re poised to get an upward adjustment rather than a downgrade. Markets have remained well behaved and oil prices have been relatively tempered since the preliminary print on Friday, August 14. Above that threshold, the “Yeses” at 52 and 54 are going for $0.31 and $0.11.
Source for images: Interactive Brokers Prediction Markets.
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of August 27, 2026.
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