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Posted January 15, 2026 at 12:57 pm
The last two full trading days and half of today’s have so far featured total volumes of approximately 5.3 million and the activity has been broad-based across topics. Daily high temperatures across US cities continue to command an elevated share of transactions, but we also saw two distinct block trades for January’s Fed decision on Tuesday morning amounting to single exchanges of 20k and 10k contracts. Both “Yeses” went through at $0.96 as investors are confident the central bank will hold at its meeting this month. Instruments tied to the price performances of the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq 100, Bitcoin and Ethereum also caught strong bids. Currency pairs additionally saw action, with participants engaging mostly with the US Dollar as it compares to Canadian and Japanese counterparts. Other popular series in the past three days have been the Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs, who will be nominated as the next Fed Chair and which political party will win a majority in the House of Representatives.
Industrial production is expected to decelerate from 1.9% year over year to 1.56% and the path to a number exceeding 2% is particularly slim, requiring a monthly expansion of almost 6 times the 0.1% projected. The “No” for tomorrow’s print should be priced closer to $0.90 in my opinion but is trading at $0.65 at the moment.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Jan. 15, 2026.
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