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Posted December 15, 2025 at 12:48 pm
An eventful weekend on ForecastEx featured north of 28 million contracts traded on Dec. 13 and 14. Some of the instruments with the most engagement were the daily high temperatures across major US cities, the Bank of Japan’s decision on Thursday and rate verdicts from the Federal Reserve in 2026.
Worries from Washington officials that National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is too close to President Trump and the contender’s constant mentions of the need for an apolitical, independent central bank whose decisions aren’t influenced by the White House have plunged his chances from 90% on Dec. 3 to 43% today. Meanwhile, the commander in chief mentioning that former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh is at the top spot has lifted his probability from 9% on Dec. 9 to a high of 43% on Friday. Approximately 41k contracts are open tied to the nomination.
Gasoline futures prices plunged last week, indicating an abundant supply environment. But sometimes those decreases aren’t immediately felt in retail costs, which are less volatile and respond in a slower way. The previous two weeks featured plunges from $3.061 to $2.985 and then to $2.94, and against that backdrop, I believe the “Yes” contract at $2.90 is undervalued at $0.10 for this week’s print. Indeed, I think the price should be closer to $0.25, in response to retailers looking to sustain pricing power following 2 consecutive weeks with sharp drops.
Expectations for November building permits and housing starts are near consensus estimates, with the former sporting odds of 59% of a number north of 1.3 million amidst a 69% probability of a figure south of 1.351 million. Similarly, the latter prices a 53% chance of a result exceeding 1.3 million and an 82% likelihood that the print won’t come in above 1.4 million. The market’s projections are at 1.34 million and 1.32 million, respectively.
Source for images: ForecastEx
Note: Prices are highest bids as of the morning of Dec. 15, 2025.
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This material is from IBKR Macroeconomics, an affiliate of Interactive Brokers LLC, and is being posted with its permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or IBKR Macroeconomics and Interactive Brokers is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any security. It should not be construed as research or investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security or commodity. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.
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