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Posted August 15, 2025 at 11:00 am
**LAST ANALYSIS USING SEP FUTURES | ROLL TO OCT ADVISED
WTI Crude Oil futures rallied yesterday, bouncing off technical support and bullish comments from President Trump. The President made outward statements, seemingly meant to calm market and European leaders’ fears over him pushing a rushed and half-baked ceasefire deal with Russia. This has also been our fear.
We continue to favor owning volatility into the weekend. The meeting is set for 2:30 cst today, allegedly. We again caution against owning open ended risk in either direction. Risk is two sided and significant. We may get through this meeting with limited volatility, but traders need to know the risk is there.
Crude is lower this morning, giving back all of yesterday’s gains to trade back into the 61.94*** support level. The potential ceasefire coming out of this meeting is weighing on crude.
Technical Analysis:
Futures are trading into our key technical support level of 61.94*** this morning. The probability for amplified volatility is higher than usual thanks to geopolitical catalysts.
Futures settled above our longer-term pivot pocket yesterday but have been dragged lower this morning which makes sense. When catalysts this large are on the docket, the normal pattern of technical trading generally doesn’t hold.
Again, we caution against open-ended risk in either direction and favor owning volatility. We have favored this trade all week. If you’re looking to own strangles/straddles and have to enter this morning, you’re too late. While the trade may still make – the risk / reward has shifted back to even odds from favoring the buyer of premium, in our opinion.
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Originally Posted on August 15, 2025 – WTI Futures Trade Lower After Rally; Volatility Risk Remains Elevated
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