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Lead Time

Trading Term

Lead time is the interval between when a forecast is issued and when the forecast event occurs. Forecast accuracy generally degrades as lead time increases, and disagreement between competing forecasting systems tends to widen with it. In event contract markets this has two practical consequences, since longer lead times leave more room for a participant with better information to find mispriced contracts, and a hedger who buys protection early generally pays a lower price than one who waits until the outcome is nearly certain.

Fair Value Weather & Climate — Monday, August 3, 2026

April 15, 2026 Update: Prediction markets might already be the best source for today’s weather forecast

Fair Value Weather & Climate — Thursday, July 30, 2026

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