Trade Event Contracts

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PRODUCTS

Trade Prediction Markets
at Interactive Brokers

Get $10 instantly when you open your Prediction Market Account

Trade political,1 climate, and economic events - on CME Group, Kalshi, and ForecastEx where prices reflect probability.

Kalshi

Participate in the future as it happens

Explore Markets How it Works

Highest Open Interest

Featured Event Contracts

Explore Markets

Trade the Future —
One Event at a Time

What Are Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets let participants trade on the outcomes of future events. Each contract represents a defined outcome, and prices reflect the collective probability.

Why Prediction Markets Matter

Prediction markets offer a structured, transparent way to express views on events such as politics, climate, and economics. Interactive Brokers provides the tools and platform to trade with confidence.

Why Trade Event Contracts
at Interactive Brokers?

Access Three Major US Prediction Markets on One Platform

Search and trade event contracts across Kalshi, ForecastEx, and CME Group from one unified platform. Easily compare prices and liquidity across exchanges, all with full transparency.

Trade Every Asset Class from One Platform

Trade event contracts alongside stocks, ETFs, options, currencies, and bonds from a single unified platform — and apply those insights across your portfolio.

Earn Interest with Forecast Contracts in the Form of an Incentive Coupon2

Earn interest based on the market value of your positions. Interest accrues daily at the current rate of USD 3.38% APY and is paid monthly.

Competitive Event Contract Trading Costs

Event Contracts start as low as $0.01 per contract.

Advanced Trading Tools for Event Contracts

Use IBKR’s ScaleTrader algorithm to efficiently scale into large positions by buying at lower prices or selling at higher prices.

Prediction Market Simulator

Try Our Free Prediction Markets Simulator

Learn More About
Prediction Markets

Explore free IBKR Campus lessons to learn further how prediction markets work.

Trading Event Contracts at IBKR

Practical Use of Event Contracts

Hedging Economic and Climate Risks

Take the First Step with Prediction Markets

New to Interactive Brokers?
Prediction Market accounts get $10 to start.

Upon account opening, Prediction Market accounts receive $10.

Trade Event Contracts

Frequently Asked Questions

IBKR Prediction Markets offers exchange-listed event contracts that allow you to trade on yes-or-no outcomes across categories such as politics (including eligible U.S. elections), economics, finance, and climate indicators. These contracts typically settle at either $0 or $1, depending on the outcome.

Interactive Brokers' Prediction Markets platform provides unified access to three leading U.S. prediction market exchanges: Kalshi, CME Group, and ForecastEx. IBKR clients can trade event contracts from all three venues through a single Interactive Brokers account.

US election prediction markets are markets where eligible participants trade Yes/No contracts tied to US election outcomes, and prices update as information changes. On IBKR Prediction Markets, these are event contracts presented as clear, outcome-based questions with fixed settlement values.

No. Eligible Interactive Brokers clients can search, compare, and trade event contracts across Kalshi, CME Group and ForecastEx directly within their existing IBKR account, without opening or funding separate accounts at each exchange.

Event Contracts are priced in dollars and quoted in small increments, with prices generally between about $0.01 and $0.99, depending on the market's perceived likelihood. A higher "Yes" price typically indicates the market views the event as more likely, based on real-time trading

Election prediction markets work by letting you take a position on a specific yes-or-no election question (for example, who wins, which party controls a chamber, or whether a candidate wins a state — depending on listings). If the outcome resolves in your favor, the event contract settles at a fixed value (commonly $1) and otherwise settles at $0, subject to the contract's terms.

Yes. IBKR Prediction Market is fully integrated into the Interactive Brokers trading platform, allowing clients to manage event contract positions alongside stocks, options, futures, bonds, crypto, and other assets. All positions are available with consolidated reporting, real time position tracking, and unified portfolio management.

No — event contracts on US election results are only available to eligible US residents, and additional eligibility requirements may apply.

Your maximum loss is generally limited to the amount you paid for the contract, because these contracts are designed with fixed settlement outcomes (subject to fees and applicable rules).

IBKR's Prediction Markets platform is available to eligible Interactive Brokers clients. Availability of specific prediction market products and contracts may vary based on the IBKR affiliate and the client's country of residence. Please visit the IBKR Prediction Markets page for the most up to date eligibility information.

The profit per contract is generally the settlement value (typically $1) minus your purchase price (and any applicable fees).

Economic prediction markets are markets where participants trade yes/no event contracts on measurable economic outcomes like inflation thresholds, rate decisions, or recession timing. IBKR Prediction Markets examples include questions tied to CPI and the Fed Funds Target Rate.

IBKR Prediction Markets offers a chart to view market pricing changes over time for a given election question — effectively a real-time election prediction signal derived from trading activity. IBKR Prediction Markets surfaces these probabilities through Event Contract prices and percentage-style displays based on market sentiment

IBKR Prediction Markets event contracts examples include inflation indicators, interest-rate targets, and growth-related metrics (depending on what's listed). Each contract is tied to a clear event question and a defined resolution process.

"Real-time election predictions" means continuously updating market-based probabilities that react quickly to new information (news, debates, polling releases, court decisions, etc.). Unlike a single poll, market prices can change any time participants re-price the likelihood of an outcome.

Yes. But the ability depends on market liquidity and availability prices at the time.

Climate prediction markets are markets where participants trade on measurable climate indicators (for example, temperature or atmospheric CO₂ thresholds), depending on listings. IBKR Prediction Markets includes climate indicators like temperatures and atmospheric CO₂ as examples.

No — polls capture what voters say at the time of a survey, while election event contracts reflect what people are actually willing to pay for a yes/no outcome at that moment. Traders often factor in polls, along with broader data like fundamentals and news, so market prices can shift as new polling information comes in.

IBKR Prediction Markets states trading is available around the clock, seven days a week, though the system may have periodic maintenance windows.

The home page states event contracts are offered at zero-commission at Interactive Brokers. (As with any market, bid/ask spreads and market liquidity can still affect your execution price.) Please review our commissions.

Markets estimate probability through trading: prices move as participants incorporate new data releases, forecasts, and macro news into what they're willing to pay. IBKR Prediction Markets also highlights that the "Yes" price is based on how likely an event is to happen.

ForecastEx Event Contracts pay an “interest-like” incentive coupon that accrues daily and is paid monthly. The current rate is 3.38% APY. The coupon amount is based on the closing market value of positions.

Check the event question, the deadline, and the settlement/resolution source so you understand exactly what determines the outcome. This is especially important for closely related outcomes (e.g., popular vote vs. electoral outcomes) where definitions matter. Please note that each contract has a unique closing date.

No — event contracts are event-based derivatives with fixed settlement outcomes tied to a question, not ownership in a company. They're designed to express a view on an event outcome with a predetermined payoff structure.

Disclosures

  1. Event Contracts on US election results are only available to eligible US residents.
  2. Payments equivalent to interest in the form of an incentive coupon subject to variation with benchmark rates.

Event Contracts are only available to eligible clients, 21 years and older, of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange, CME, and E-mini are registered marks of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Inc. ForecastEx is not affiliated with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Inc. and neither it, nor its affiliates, sponsor or endorse ForecastEx or its products in any way. In particular, ForecastEx US 500 Forecast Contracts are not sponsored, endorsed, sold, or promoted by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.

S&P 500 is a registered mark of Standard & Poor’s Financial Services, LLC. ForecastEx is not affiliated with Standard & Poor’s and neither it, nor its affiliates, sponsor or endorse ForecastEx or its products in any way. In particular, ForecastEx US 500 Forecast Contracts are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Standard & Poor’s.

NASDAQ, NASDAQ-100, NASDAQ Composite, and other related marks are registered trademarks of Nasdaq, Inc. (together with its affiliates, "Nasdaq"). ForecastEx is not affiliated with Nasdaq, and neither it nor its products are sponsored, endorsed, sold, or promoted by Nasdaq. The Forecast Contracts are not sponsored, endorsed, or approved by Nasdaq in any way. Nasdaq makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in any product offered by ForecastEx.

Dow Jones, The Dow, Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Transportation Average, Dow Jones Utility Average, Dow Jones Composite Average, and other related marks are trademarks of Dow Jones Trademark Holdings LLC ("Dow Jones"). These trademarks have been licensed to S&P Dow Jones Indices ("S&P DJI"). ForecastEx is not affiliated with Dow Jones, S&P DJI, or their respective affiliates, and neither ForecastEx nor its products are sponsored, endorsed, sold, or promoted by these entities. In particular, the Forecast Contracts are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by Dow Jones, S&P DJI, or any of their affiliates.