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宏观分析

GUOSEN Closing Bell (February.20)


MARKET

Chinese stocks closed higher today, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index ended at 3239.96 points. The A-share market rallied amid reflation expectation and curbs on corporate refinance, bank and consumer names lifted the market. Alcohol and home appliance sectors led the gains; none sectors fell. Combined turnover for both markets was 498.8 bn yuan, down 0.1% dod.

 

CLOSE

%CHG

VOL (bn yuan)

%YTD

SH Composite

3,239.96

1.18

250.3

4.39

SZ Component

10,329.00

1.29

248.6

1.49

CSI300

3,471.39

1.46

134.7

4.87

ChiNext

1,894.96

0.64

61.9

-3.42

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Alcohol

600779

Home appliance

000921

Downward-leading

 

 

 

 

 

NEWS

*The China National Petroleum Corporation yesterday secured an 8 percent share in an onshore oil concession in Abu Dhabi in a deal worth US$1.77 billion, the Emirati company said. The Chinese giant signed a deal with the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company for a stake in the Abu Dhabi Company for Onshore Petroleum Operations which operates the 40-year concession, ADNOC said in a statement. “This will be a mutually beneficial partnership that will enable us to maintain strong production levels,” ADNOC chief executive Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber said. CNPC chairman Wang Yilin said he hoped the deal would “lead to further opportunities to participate in the UAE’s energy sector.” (AFP)

 

 

 FUND FLOW

 

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


12378




技术分析

BUXL (GBX) Testing Daily Chart Triangle Resistance


The BUXL (GBX) surged Friday, breaking above triangle resistance (on the daily chart) intraday.  Significantly, GBX bounced last week back above downtrend resistance (on the weekly chart) after being briefly below it intraweek.  Daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are rallying, bottomish or consolidating recent gains.  Although the weekly RSI and Stochastics appear bottomish, there isn't enough history in the accompanied weekly chart to read too much into these indicators.  I am flat and will look to enter long intraday in the green zone (of the daily chart) with an upside target of the red zone by mid week.

 

BUXL (Eurex GBX Mar17) Weekly/Daily/4hr/Hourly

 

Click here for today's technical analysis on Arabica Coffee, Cocoa

 

Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures and spot FX markets can be traded consistently profitably. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and US equity markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

 


12377




证券借贷

Price Jump Broadcasts to Shorts


Wecast Network (NASDAQ: WCST) provides broadcasting services. The Company offers television programming, video on demand, and content delivery services to mobile and television screens.  The company has a market cap of $67 Million and is based in New York.  The stock doubled from $1 to an intraday high of $2.40 in the beginning of February on news of Wecast’s acquisitions, which the company expects to be accretive to revenue.  It has since come in to $1.57 today.  Value on Loan increased by 20% with short interest at 6% of the float.  The borrow fee has held steady in the mid-80s.  The name is hard-to-borrow because of the small market cap, with a small number of holders, making it difficult to find rehypothecated shares.  As a result, Utilization is 93% across the street.

 

The analysis in this article is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


12376




股票

Utilities Sector 1Q17: Best and Worst


The Utilities sector ranks seventh out of the ten sectors as detailed in our 1Q17 Sector Ratings for ETFs and Mutual Funds report. Last quarter, the Utilities sector ranked eighth. It gets our Dangerous rating, which is based on an aggregation of ratings of nine ETFs and 29 mutual funds in the Utilities sector as of January 19, 2017. See a recap of our 4Q16 Sector Ratings here.

Figure 1 ranks from best to worst the eight Utilities ETFs that meet our liquidity standards and Figure 2 shows the five best and worst rated Utilities mutual funds. Not all Utilities sector ETFs and mutual funds are created the same. The number of holdings varies widely (from 17 to 78). This variation creates drastically different investment implications and, therefore, ratings.

Investors seeking exposure to the Utilities sector should buy one of the Attractive-or-better rated ETFs or mutual funds from Figures 1 and 2.

Here is our ETF and mutual fund rating methodology, which leverages our rigorous analysis of each fund’s holdings. We think advisors and investors focused on prudent investment decisions should include analysis of fund holdings in their research process for ETFs and mutual funds.

Figure 1: ETFs with the Best & Worst Ratings – Top 5

utilities1q17_figure1

Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings

* Best ETFs exclude ETFs with TNAs less than $100 million for inadequate liquidity.

PowerShares DWA Utilities Momentum Portfolio (PUI) is excluded from Figure 1 because its total net assets (TNA) are below $100 million and do not meet our liquidity minimums.

Figure 2: Mutual Funds with the Best & Worst Ratings – Top 5

utilities1q17_figure2

* Best mutual funds exclude funds with TNAs less than $100 million for inadequate liquidity.

Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings

Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight Utilities ETF (RYU) is the top-rated Utilities ETF and Wells Fargo Utility & Telecommunications Fund (EVUCX) is the top-rated Utilities mutual fund. Both earn a Attractive rating.

PowerShares S&P SmallCap Utilities Portfolio (PSCU) is the worst rated Utilities ETF and Fidelity Advisor Utilities Fund (FAUFX) is the worst rated Utilities mutual fund. PSCU earns our Dangerous rating and FAUFX earns our Very Dangerous rating.

73 stocks of the 3000+ we cover are classified as Utilities stocks, but due to style drift, Utilities ETFs and mutual funds hold 78 stocks.

The Danger Within

Buying a fund without analyzing its holdings is like buying a stock without analyzing its business and finances. Put another way, research on fund holdings is necessary due diligence because a fund’s performance is only as good as its holdings’ performance. Don’t just take our word for it, see what Barron’s says on this matter.

PERFORMANCE OF HOLDINGs = PERFORMANCE OF FUND

Figures 3 and 4 show the rating landscape of all Utilities ETFs and mutual funds.

Figure 3: Separating the Best ETFs From the Worst ETFs

utilities1q17_figure3

Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings

Figure 4: Separating the Best Mutual Funds From the Worst Mutual Funds

utilities1q17_figure4

Sources: New Constructs, LLC and company filings

This article originally published here on January 23, 2017.

 

Disclosure: David Trainer, Kyle Guske and Kyle Martone receive no compensation to write about any specific stock, sector or theme.

About New Constructs

Our stock rating methodology instantly informs you of the quality of the business and the fairness of the stock’s valuation. We do the diligence on earnings quality and valuation so you don’t have to.

In-depth risk/reward analysis underpins our stock rating. Our stock rating methodology grades every stock according to what we believe are the 5 most important criteria for assessing the quality of a stock. Each grade reflects the balance of potential risk and reward of buying that stock. Our analysis results in the 5 ratings described below. Very Attractive and Attractive correspond to a "Buy" rating, Very Dangerous and Dangerous correspond to a "Sell" rating, while Neutral corresponds to a "Hold" rating.

Cutting-edge technology enables us to scale our forensics accounting expertise so that we can cover enough stocks to cover the ETFs that hold them as well. Learn more about New Constructs. Get a free trial. See what Barron’s has to say about our research.

This article is from New Constructs, LLC and is being posted with New Constructs, LLC’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or New Constructs, LLC and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


12375




股票

Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk - Equity Market Insight February 17, 2017


As of 12:10PM:

NASDAQ Composite -0.01% Dow -0.3% S&P 500 -0.19% Russell 2000 -0.3%
NASDAQ Advancers: 1035 / Decliners: 1146
Today’s Volume (100day avg):  +0.6%

US stocks ended their recent winning streak yesterday, and they are ticking lower once again this morning.  Despite the pull back over the past two sessions all the major indices are on pace for the 4th consecutive day of gains.   Consumer staples are the lone sector in the green, while Energy, Telecom and Financials are all off by more the 0.5%. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is off by more than 1.5% this week (steepest weekly decline since early November).

  • Kraft Heinz(+8%) made a preliminary offer to acquire Unilever for $143b, which was quickly declined by Unilever. There was speculation that Kraft would attempt Mondelez back to its portfolio, but today’s announcement has investors believing the company might be heading towards a new objective. Unilever believes the initial offer undervalues its company and at this time, sees no need for further discussions.
  • We’ve been monitoring the probability of a rate hike at the March Fed meeting, which jumped to 44% on Wednesday and pushed the Dollar index (DXY) to its highest level in over a month. The lack clarity behind Trump tax/spending plans has injected some uncertainty in the market and added volatility to treasuries and currencies. Speaking of volatility, the CBOE VIX Index is going to post its largest weekly gain of 2017.
  • On the earnings front, Arista Networks (+18%), Sunpower (+11%) and Cognex (+10%) are the three best performers on the Russell 1000 after reporting strong results and outlook.

 

Technical Take:

Emerging markets have been as hot as US markets this year with the emerging markets etf (EEM) in the green in seven out of the last eight weeks for a YTD gain of 9.3%.  In the beginning of this week the EEM broke out to new 52-week highs, made previously in September 2016, and peaked at $38.73.   The prior two sessions, however, have formed a bearish “dark could” topping pattern where yesterday’s gap higher marked the top of the session and then closed at the midpoint of the prior large green candlestick.  Today this bearish pattern is seeing strong confirmation with today’s gap lower.   Momentum is now coming off from extreme levels as the daily RSI reached a 4-year high 76 reading on Wednesday to 65 today.  On the weekly time frame the price action has formed a “gravestone doji” topping pattern which importantly has developed along the prior 52-week high at $38.32.   Although the longer term structure remains constructive since “emerging” from seven-year lows in Q1’16, near term the EEM may be in for a period of consolidation as it continues working off overbought technical readings. 

Nasdaq's Market Intelligence Desk (MID) Team includes: 

Michael Sokoll, CFA is a Senior Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over 25 years of equity market experience. In this role, he manages a team of professionals responsible for providing NASDAQ-listed companies with real-time trading analysis and objective market information.

Jeffrey LaRocque is a Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq, covering U.S. equities with over 10 years of experience having learned market structure while working on institutional trading desks and as a stock surveillance analyst. Jeff's diverse professional knowledge includes IPOs, Technical Analysis and Options Trading.

Steven Brown is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq with over twenty years of experience in equities. With a focus on client retention he currently covers the Financial, Energy and Media sectors.

Christopher Dearborn is a Managing Director on the Market Intelligence Desk (MID) at Nasdaq. Chris has over two decades of equity market experience including floor and screen based trading, corporate access, IPOs and asset allocation. Chris is responsible for providing timely, accurate and objective market and trading-related information to Nasdaq-listed companies.

Brian Joyce, CMT has 16 years of trading desk experience. Prior to joining Nasdaq Brian executed equity orders and provided trading ideas to institutional clients. He also contributed technical analysis to a fundamental research offering. Brian focuses on helping Nasdaq’s Financial, Healthcare and Airline companies among others understand the trading in their stock. Brian is a Chartered Market Technician.

This article is from Nasdaq and is being posted with Nasdaq’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Nasdaq and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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