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技术分析

AUDUSD Testing Weekly Chart Downchannel Resistance


The AUDUSD powered ahead in today's Asia morning on the back of the FOMC, but after surging roughly 100 pips from yesterday's lowest point to current levels, is vulnerable to healthy profittaking today.  Significantly, the AUDUSD is bumping up against upchannel resistance (on the 4hr chart), triangle resistance (on the daily chart) and weekly downchannel resistance (on the weekly chart).  Bulls will increasingly buy on dips as a breakout above the next whole figure level of .7200 will be seen by many as marking the end of the year plus downtrend.  The weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish or rallying.  I am looking at entering long in the green zone (of the daily chart), targeting the red zone for Tuesday.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops tighter).

 

AUDUSD Weekly/Daily/4hr

Click here for today's technical analysis on EURUSD, Silver

 

As seen on Bloomberg, Refinitiv (Thomson Reuters), Factset, Interactive Brokers, Inside Futures, Amazon, Liquid (Quoine) and Zerohedge, Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures, spot FX and cryptocurrency markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/ (commodities and equity indices) and spot FX markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. Crypto Weekly Outlook offers technical analysis on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), Ethereum (ETHUSD) and Ripple (XRPUSD) and attempts to provide clues as to what might happen in the coming week.  For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


23245




期货

FX Rundown - Blue Line Futures (03.20.19)


 

Today, the Federal Reserve projected no hikes in 2018 and announced their plan to finish QT by September. The SNB and BoE are up next tomorrow morning. We cover the landscape and levels for the Dollar, Euro, Yen, Aussie and Canadian. 

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with Blue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in this material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23244




宏观分析

Interactive Brokers - Asia-Pacific: The Week Ahead (Mar 25-Apr 1)


South Korea: Struggling to Get it Into Gear

South Korea is set to release a slew of new economic updates in the week ahead, including consumer and business confidence, retail sales and an update on its slowing manufacturing sector.

South Korea’s economy has been battered recently, amid intensified risks from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s monetary policy normalization, as well as uncertainties over US-China trade talks.

Meanwhile, a somewhat slower pace of global economic growth has generally stymied the country’s exports, as well as its labor market and rate of inflation. In fact, South Korea’s consumer price index (CPI) has slowed to the upper-0% range, mainly due to declines in the prices of petroleum products and agricultural goods, including livestock and fish.

Against this landscape, the Bank of Korea at its meeting in late February left its Base Rate unchanged at 1.75%.

 

 

The central bank also observed that South Korean domestic stock prices have generally risen on the back of optimism about the US-China trade dispute, while long-term market interest rates and the Korean won-US dollar exchange rate have fluctuated within narrow ranges.

To date, the iShares MSCI South Korea ETF has fallen roughly 17.8% year-on-year but has climbed nearly 10.6% from its 52-week low set in October 2018, according to the IBKR Trader Workstation. The Korean won has yet to recover from its June plunge and has lost more than 6.3% of its value against the U.S. dollar since its April 2018 high.  

 

 

Elsewhere, household lending in the nation has also continued to slow, amid more stringent mortgage loan standards under the recently adopted Debt Service Ratio (DSR) for new borrowers. South Korea’s housing prices have also fallen slightly.

However, the country is not alone in its struggles to revive growth.

Moody’s Investors Service analyst Christian Fang recently noted growth in the Asia-Pacific region is slowing and “further downside risks have intensified,” including US-China trade tensions, tightening global financing conditions, and shifting domestic political and policy priorities.

Fang said a “weaker economic outlook means that the window for addressing credit challenges is closing.” Furthermore, he added that “tensions between the US and China could disincentivize investment and weigh on growth potential beyond Moody's current assumptions, given trade exposure to China and the integration of manufacturing supply chains within APAC.”

Indeed, manufacturing activity in South Korea, Japan and China has been recently diving deeper into contraction territory.

Moody’s said Asia's emerging and frontier market economies are “likely to experience the sharpest deceleration in 2019, with likely median GDP growth rates of 5.5% and 5.2%, respectively.” Meanwhile, growth in the advanced economies will likely slow to 2.5%.

 

Calendar of Events

South Korea’s economic releases in the week ahead will kick off in earnest with:

Tuesday, March 26

  • Consumer Confidence (Mar)

 

Wednesday, March 27

  • Business Confidence (Mar)

 

South Korea’s Composite Consumer Sentiment Index (CCSI) registered 99.5 in February, up 2 points from the prior month, but far from its June 2018 level of 105.4. The country’s Business Survey Index (BSI) on conditions in the manufacturing sector also rose 2 points from the previous month to 69 in February, with the outlook for March having risen by 11 points to 76.

The Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) – a composite of the BSI and Consumer Survey Index (CSI) for February rose 5.8 points year-on-year to 95.1.  

In the latter part of the week, investors will receive reports on:

Thursday, March 28

  • Industrial Production (Feb)
  • Retail Sales (Feb)

 

Sunday, March 31

  • Trade Balance (Mar)
  • Nikkei Manufacturing PMI (Mar)

 

The headline Nikkei South Korea Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell to a 44-month low of 47.2 in February, from 48.3 in January, suggesting the sharpest deterioration in the health of South Korea’s goods-producing economy since June 2015 and extending the current period of decline to four months.

 

 

According to Nikkei and IHS Markit, the latest survey data highlighted “stronger declines in new orders from domestic and overseas markets in February, leading to sharper reductions of both output and staffing levels.”

Joe Hayes, economist at IHS Markit, noted that the latest PMI data indicates there is “no sign of recovery in South Korea’s manufacturing sector, with evidence that the struggling global trade cycle is pinching a key exporting market.

“International demand fell at the joint-sharpest pace in five-and-a-half years during February, with weak underlying conditions reportedly compounded by rising competitive pressures.”

Hayes added that for South Korea’s economy “to sustain its relatively robust growth path, the domestic economy will need to pick up the slack from overseas markets.”

Against this backdrop, coming off of the week-end investors will also get an update on South Korea’s flagging inflation rate, which slowed to 0.5% in February from 0.8% in the prior month.

 

Monday, April 1

  • CPI (Mar)

 

Market participants will be keeping an eye on South Korea’s manufacturing sector, as well as its CPI, for any further signs of a potential downturn.

In the meantime, select the Event Calendar option in the IBKR Trader Workstation for a full list of U.S. and global corporate events and earnings, dividend schedules, economic data, IPOs and more.

--

The author does not hold any positions in the financial instruments referenced in the materials provided.

There is a substantial risk of loss in foreign exchange trading. The settlement date of foreign exchange trades can vary due to time zone differences and bank holidays. When trading across foreign exchange markets, this may necessitate borrowing funds to settle foreign exchange trades. The interest rate on borrowed funds must be considered when computing the cost of trades across multiple markets.

Trading on margin is only for sophisticated investors with high risk tolerance. You may lose more than your initial investment.

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23241




宏观分析

Sentieo - Fed Statement Analysis - By Jed Gore


Jed Gore, senior data scientist at data analytics research firm Sentieo, analyzed the Fed Meeting Statement released Wednesday. His findings showed an even more significant decline in "hawkishness" than the statement discussed in IBKR’s U.S. Week Ahead segment Breaking the Fed Code.  “This is a significant result,” he said.

Gore added: “The results were somewhat predictable when we look at Chairman Powell's speeches over the past year (see bottom chart). 

“The last three speeches, all of which fell after the January meeting, were significantly more ‘dovish’ than previous long-form speeches,” after filtering out some of the shorter instances of him talking at dinners and such and restricting the analysis only to major long-form talks.

 

--

Sentieo organizes the world’s financial information to make you and your team more productive in your fundamental research workflow. We process millions of documents to deliver crucial information in seconds with advanced linguistic search algorithms; organize and centralize your research processes with our notebook and research management system; integrate into your workflow with collaboration in mind; help you build models faster from source documents with zero data entry using our table extraction tools; and allow you to find new information from the same datasets and add new alternative datasets to your arsenal. With Sentieo, spend less time gathering and organizing information and more time generating alpha.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Sentieo and is being posted with Sentieo’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Sentieo and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23242




股票

Pension Partners - Spring Crash of 2019?


“All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.” – Arthur Schopenhauer

I’m sorry, but I call BS on the way the stock market’s rally has held over the last several weeks.

I’m not saying that based on some emotional response to the move or based on some hidden motive.  The reality is that multiple indicators are flashing warning signs that I believe are being ignored by short-termism and overly excited market prognosticators

It is incredibly important to recognize that big moves cluster in both directions.  I came across this fun little chart on Twitter.  Not implying it plays out the same way, but to think that stocks can’t retest the lows of last year (or go lower) simply because of how violent the move back up has been goes against plenty of historical examples that say quite the opposite.

Objectively, the 3, 4, 5, and 6-week rate of change of Utilities relative to the S&P 500 remains positive.  For those familiar with the 2014 Dow Award winning paper “An Intermarket Approach to Beta Rotation,” Utilities are a key sector to pay attention to as their strength tends to precede corrections and volatility spikes.  Utilities into the market’s advance of the last several weeks have held. This is a warning more often than not that gains may indeed be bogus.

High beta stocks relative to low beta have fallen and can’t get back up.  The ratio of high beta to low volatility is rolling over as stocks indices “break out.” With active QE, the bull market was led by low volatility dividend paying stocks because of the hunt for yield insanity that the Fed lulled investors into.  Rates are not at zero in the US, and to see low-volatility actually firming up in the last few weeks of the market’s push makes things suspect.

No – it doesn’t look right from a quant perspective and doesn’t feel right from a subjective perspective.  And with Treasuries on the shorter end of the curve getting more inverted and kinked, something is bothering the market here sub-consciously.  Whether the market will react remains to be seen.  But given this is a business about managing risk, it’s worth considering that the greatest risk may be thinking the worst is over. I believe the odds are favoring another major decline, and soon.  And if that doesn’t happen, I’d rather be wrong and early than right and too late.

--

Originally Posted on March 17, 2019

Michael Gayed is a Portfolio Manager at Pension Partners LLC. He is the co-author of four award-winning research papers on market anomalies and investing.

Disclosures:

Pension Partners, LLC is a federally registered investment adviser under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. Registration as an investment adviser does not imply a certain level of skill or training. The oral and written communications of an adviser provide you with information about which you determine to hire or retain an adviser. For more information about Pension Partners please visit: https://adviserinfo.sec.gov/ and search for our firm name.

The information herein was obtained from various sources. Pension Partners does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of such information provided by third parties. The information given is as of the date indicated and believed to be reliable. Pension Partners assumes no obligation to update this information, or to advise on further developments relating to it.

This writing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, a solicitation to buy, or a recommendation regarding any securities transaction, or as an offer to provide advisory or other services by Pension Partners, LLC in any jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, purchase or sale would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction. The information contained in this writing should not be construed as financial or investment advice on any subject matter. Pension Partners, LLC expressly disclaims all liability in respect to actions taken based on any or all of the information on this writing.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Pension Partners, LLC and is being posted with Pension Partners, LLC's permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Pension Partners, LLC and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


23235




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披露

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