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股票

Finimize - Death, Taxes - And Politicians


What's going on?

They say nothing’s certain but death and taxes – and according to a report from Deutsche Bank this week, investors might very well agree…

 

What does this mean?

Deutsche Bank’s “global economic policy uncertainty index” is currently sitting at record highs. In plain English, that means investors aren’t sure what to expect from central banks in 2019; and, thanks to the state of play in international politics, the central banks themselves are also grasping in the dark.

The US-China trade conflict remains unresolved, despite hopes that positive talks last week may yet avoid further trade taxes. Speaking of the US, a record 27-day (and counting) partial government shutdown is costing it $1.2 billion every week – and may soon start hitting company profits, too. In the UK, meanwhile, a parliamentary vote on Tuesday to reject the divorce terms negotiated with the European Union leaves their post-Brexit relationship far from certain.

 

Why should I care?

For markets: Economies – and investors – are blindfolded.


All of these political uncertainties have an economic impact. In the case of trade war and Brexit, big international trading tariffs could clobber company profits in an already slowing global economy. And with parts of the US government closed for business, companies are being left hanging on things like new licenses (and even, for Uber and Lyft, stock market listings). Central banks, whose policies can speed up or slow down economic growth as appropriate, are on tenterhooks – and so are investors.

The bigger picture: One thing remains constant: company mergers.


Two of the biggest financial technology companies you’ve never heard of, Fiserv and First Data, announced a $22 billion mega-merger on Wednesday. It’s just the latest in a swath of deals that’s seen different parts of the digital finance universe coming together to provide ever more joined-up services – and present a united front against upstart competition.

--

Originally Posted on January 16, 2019

Finimize is the daily email that everyone in finance secretly reads. It's the perfect 3-minute cheat sheet on what happened in the financial news: it's free and without any jargon or as Forbes puts it “Super digestible and well-written. A+”. All content is created by the Finimize team, formerly @Goldman Sachs, Barclays, etc. Join more than 200,000 daily readers.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Finimize and is being posted with Finimize's permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Finimize and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22363




宏观分析

Interactive Brokers - Asia-Pacific: The Week Ahead (Jan 21-28)


Interactive Brokers senior market analyst Steven Levine provides some highlights for what to look for in the Asia-Pacific region in the week beginning January 21. Experience the IBKR Platform! Use our powerful trading platform to begin trading a simulated account for free and without commitment.

Click here to start your free trial today:

https://www.interactivebrokers.com/mkt/?src=youtube7&url=%2Fen%2Findex.php%3Ff%3D1286

 

Produced on January 15, 2019

The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22355




股票

Edison - UK Sparks: Whitbread Unveils 500m Cash Return


Whitbread has announced that it is to return up to £500m to shareholders through share buybacks after completing the £3.9bn sale of its Costa Coffee chain to Coca-Cola. The group is instructing Morgan Stanley to organise an initial repurchase of up to £225m in stock by March 8. It says it is also close to appointing Deutsche Bank to buy back more shares from March 8 to April 30. The total of both programmes will be capped at £500m.

Separately, Whitbread has issued a trading update showing a 3.5% increase in sales at its Premier Inn hotel operation in the third quarter of its financial year. Whitbread’s restaurants business, which includes Brewers Fayre and Beefeater, saw sales rise 0.5% over the period.

Chief executive Alison Brittain says the group is committed to creating sustainable long-term growth for shareholders through a “disciplined approach to capital allocation”.

Associated British Foods says year-on-year sales at its clothing retailer Primark increased by 4% in the 16 weeks to January 5, while profits were “well ahead” in the period. Overall group revenues advanced by 2%, held back by a 12% sales drop at ABF’s sugar business. ABF says it sees "early signs of recovery in EU sugar prices" and its outlook for the group is unchanged.

Betting and gaming group GVC Holdings says in an update that it expects full-year pro-forma underlying earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation to be between £750m-£755m, ahead of analysts’ consensus forecasts, after a strong final quarter.

Credit data group Experian says organic revenue rose 9% at constant exchange rates in the three months to December 31. Overall sales were 5% higher at actual exchange rates.

Organic revenues at accountancy software developer Sage Group increased by 7.6% to £465m during the final quarter of 2018. New chief executive Steve Hare says the group’s full-year guidance is unchanged.

Finally, airports and railway catering company SSP Group saw total revenues increase 7.7% in the last three months of 2018. The figures include like-for-like sales growth of 2.5% and net contract gains of 3.8%. Like-for-like sales growth in Continental Europe was impacted by the protests in France towards the end of the quarter, as well as by redevelopment activity at some of its sites.

The group’s outlook remains unchanged, expecting full-year like-for-like sales growth of between 2-3%.

Andrew Cave

---

Edison is an investment research and advisory company, with offices in North America, Europe, the Middle East and AsiaPac. The heart of Edison is our world renowned equity research platform and deep multi-sector expertise. At Edison Investment Research, our research is widely read by international investors, advisors and stakeholders. Edison Advisors leverages our core research platform to provide differentiated services including investor relations and strategic consulting.  Visit www.edisoninvestmentresearch.com for more information.

Edison is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. Our research is a marketing communication as defined by the FCA, this communication only contains information that is an acceptable minor non-monetary benefit as defined under COBS2.3A19(5).

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Edison and is being posted with Edison’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Edison and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22360




宏观分析

GUOSEN Closing Bell (January 17)


MARKET

Chinese stocks pulled back in the afternoon and SHCOMP dropped 0.42% by closing. China also vowed to push ahead with opening its bond market to foreign investors, according to Bloomberg. Coal and Steel sectors led the gains, while IT and Electronic Component shares were the worst performers. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 292.8 bn, down 3.75% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

2559.64

-0.42

127.55

2.64

Shenzhen

7470.36

-0.93

166.61

3.18

CSI 300

3111.42

-0.55

82.89

3.35

ChiNext

1251.41

-1.25

49.20

0.07

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Coal

600157

Steel

600058

Downward-leading

IT

300659

Electronic Component

300319

 

NEWS

*Vice Premier Liu He to Visit U.S. for Trade Talks Jan. 30-31. China’s Vice Premier Liu He will visit the U.S. for consultations on Sino-U.S. economic and trade issues, Ministry of Commerce’s spokesperson Gao Feng said at a press conference today. (Caixin)

*The People’s Bank of China has been quietly guiding interbank borrowing costs down without actually cutting official interest rates, with the latest move a record one-day injection of cash into the market. The central bank pumped a net 1.14 trillion yuan ($169 billion) into the financial system through open-market operations so far this week. (Bloomberg)

 

FUND FLOW

 

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


22359




宏观分析

Eurex: Trade Worries Tick Over


Morning Briefing January 17th 2018

There are only two pieces of data worth noting on a very quiet Thursday. These are the November Euro Area construction output data at 1000GMT. The other release worth noting is the January U.S. Initial Jobless claims.

Euro area construction output in October declined by 1.6% on the month resulting in a 1.8% rise y/y.

ECB Executive Board member Sabine Lautenschlager is speaking in Dublin, Ireland at 1100GMT.

The initial jobless claims data was 216 last week and the MNI median has this week's reading at 210.

Concluding the speeches at 1545GMT, the Fed's Randal Quarles is participating in a discussion about Insurance Regulation and Supervision in New York.

Global Economic Trading Calendar

Markets

US TSYS: T-Notes operate a touch above settlement, drawing support from a modest downtick in U.S. equity index futures, as well as the Nikkei 225 pairing its early gains. - Yields trade 0.8-1.2bp lower at writing. - Fed dove & non-voter Kashkari stuck to his usual cautious message in early Asia-Pacific hours. Elsewhere general worry re: trade matters surrounding Huawei & ZTE, in addition to talk of a delay in U.S. trade talks with both the EU & Japan, weighed on risk.

BUNDS: German fixed income futures have drawn some support from modest risk-off flows observed thus far, with a focus on the global trade backdrop, with the contracts trading at/near best levels. Schatz +0.015, Bobls +0.060, Bunds +0.17.
- Guarded commentary from ECB's Draghi, Nowotny, Mersch & Villeroy has been evident over the last 36 hours or so, although the speakers have all batted away any talk of EZ recession after highlighting the risks that the single currency zone currently faces.

JGBS: Modest risk-off flows pushed the Nikkei 225 away from the early highs, with the benchmark closing the morning session 0.2% lower, supporting JGBs. JGB futures operated in a tight range this morning, going into the lunch at unchanged levels. Yields out to 10-Years trade modestly softer, with 20-Year plus paper underperforming slightly, facilitating some modest twist steepening. - Comments from BoJ's Amamiya revealed little new, with a focus on demographics. - The BoJ left the size of its 5-10 Year Rinban ops unchanged today, offer to cover ratio 2.21 (prev. 3.28).

AUSSIE BONDS: Bond futures continue to operate within narrow ranges, with YM -0.5 & XM -1.0 at writing. The curve trades in familiar territory, YM/XM last 51.5, with the cash 3-/10-Year yield differential last at 48.8bp. - No notable reaction was observed to the latest round of AU housing finance data.

STOCKS: General worry re: global trade matters surrounding Huawei & ZTE, in addition to talk of a delay in U.S. trade talks with both the EU & Japan, weighed on risk during the early part of the Asia-Pacific session, leading U.S. index futures lower. - The move lower in U.S. equity futures, couple with some modest JPY strength led the Nikkei 225 lower, after a positive start for the space. - Chinese linked stocks unwound their early underperformance, aided by the PBoC injecting a net >CNY1.0tn in liquidity so far this week. - There was a decent round of earnings releases for Australian energy names, with financials and materials also ticking higher.

OIL: WTI & Brent both trade ~$0.30 lower at writing, in what has been a relatively lacklustre Asia-Pacific session for crude.

GOLD: Gold continues to operate around the upper echelons of its recent range, struggling for fresh impetus, last $1,292/oz.

FOREX: Risk appetite was dampened in early Asia-Pac trade on the back of global trade tensions re: Chinese tech companies & potential delays to U.S. trade talks with Japan & the EU. - JPY outperformed at the margin, with USD/JPY <Y109.00 for the bulk of the session. The Nikkei 225 & U.S. equity futures trade marginally lower. Worth noting BoJ Gov Kuroda spoke overnight stressing the need to eye the impact of unconventional policy. - NZD underperformed amidst talk of some modest NZ funding pressure around the upcoming NZ holiday, in the aftermath of a soft REINZ house sales print. - Sterling traded mixed after PM May survived yesterday's no-confidence vote (as exp.) and proceeded to cross-party talks re: Brexit, which the Labour Party's Corbyn refused to attend unless the prospect of "no deal" is formally removed. - USD was relatively firm, although no prospects of ending the ongoing gov't shutdown any time soon have emerged.

Technical Analysis

BUND TECHS: (H19) JAN 3 HIGHS REMAIN INTACT FOR NOW

The pullback in Bund futures yesterday proved short lived with attention turning back to the Jan 3 high at 165.10. Above here would solidify the longer term uptrend and open the Sep 2017 high at 165.83. The 21-dma at 163.98 acts as initial support, with a break below needed to shift the outlook negative and target the Dec 27 low at 163.15.

EUROSTOXX50: STILL CAPPED BELOW 3100 AND 50-DMA

Despite yesterday's rally Eurostoxx remains below the 3100 level and the 50-dma just above it, keeping the broader bearish trend intact. A break above here would suggest a potential bullish trend change, opening down trendline resistance at 3140 ahead of the Dec 3 high at 3244.98. Bears look for a move below the 21-dma to open the 3000 level. Below here would open a retest of the Dec 27 low at 2908.70.

Eurex Futures Market Close

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MNI

MNI subscribers make critical decisions with deeper insight and greater confidence. Pinpoint information and market-moving interviews let them react instantly to market changes and more importantly, anticipate future market moves. MNI reporters are market professionals in the news business. They work like journalists but think like traders. When interviewing Fed officials, our reporters ask the same questions you would ask. They cover the angles you would cover. Write the way you read.

MNI’s news services are now available via the IB Trader platform. Please click here to view our provider page or contact MNI directly on sales@mni-news.com or +1 212 669 6400 for our Americas sales team and +44 207 862 7408 for our EMEA sales team.

This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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