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Blue Line Futures - FX Rundown


Euro (December)

Session close: Settled at 1.1855, up 100.5 ticks

Fundamentals: The Euro gained more than a penny today and several factors worked to finally lead the currency into breakout territory. First, economic data from the Eurozone has clearly and decisively turned a corner in recent weeks but bringing a tailwind has been strong data from the U.K. CPI yesterday and Retail Sales today both crushed expectations and there is a sentiment coming with such that translates into the entire continent. ECB Chief Economist Praet said today that the bank must communicate guidance after the first hike. While the ECB is not expected to hike until late next year, the markets have taken his approach as hawkish in that they have priced in the slowest possible pace. We have been adamant all year that growth and inflation will show up in the Eurozone and the market has underpriced-in the pace of hikes. Lastly, Brexit talks this week have failed to yield substance, however, there is a positive sentiment that the talks have taken steps in the right direction; a supportive factor for both the Euro and the Pound.

When it comes to the U.S Dollar, slower than expected inflation data last week has taken its time to trickle into the market but it has certainly weighed on price action. Most importantly, after the latest announcement of tariffs this week, the Dollar did not catch a safe-haven bid. From a positioning standpoint, this has encouraged longs in the Dollar and/or shorts in the Euro to reduce exposure now that this angle has seemingly exhausted itself. The Dollar Index lost about 0.75% today despite both Philly Fed Manufacturing and weekly Jobless Claims beating expectations.

On the data front tomorrow, we look to Flash (preliminary) PMIs from September. First, French GDP is due at 1:45 am CT. Regional PMIs begin at 2:00 am CT from France and then German before the Eurozone read at 3:00 am CT. U.S PMIs are due at 8:45 am CT.

Technicals: The consolidation all week has been extremely healthy, and we noted this through our FX Rundown videos on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Today’s settlement and breakout above major three-star resistance at 1.1831 is bullish and should garner further momentum to our next huge level at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to vie our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Yen (December)

Session close: Settled at .89465, up 19 ticks

Fundamentals: Today was a prime example why the Yen is the most unenthusiastic trade out there. Although the Dollar got clobbered against every major currency (except for the Mexican Peso), the Yen again lost ground against the Dollar. U.S benchmarks posted breakout sessions which put pressure on the Yen. However, the Yen cannot capitalize and sustain gains on trade related fears because of its proximity to China. The Bank of Japan said earlier this week they plan to keep their easy money policy intact and after a head fake from them in the first quarter, no one is willing to trust they are going to take a step toward tightening anytime soon. We will be watching National CPI data out of Japan tonight. It is expected at +0.9% YoY, a far cry from the target 2%.

Technicals: We remain softly Bearish in Bias, however, this is not where you want to be entering a short, this is where you want to be capitalizing on shorts. Price action tested and held first key support head-on today at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to vie our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Aussie (December)

Session close: Settled at .7294, up 26 ticks

Fundamentals: It feels as if the Aussie crossed over an imaginary line where the outlook just could not get any worse and that in and of itself was bullish. Ultimately, this was a risk-on tailwind that spread through emerging markets and commodities and the Aussie was a key beneficiary. The U.S Dollar is weaker, equity markets are higher, the Chinese Yuan has strengthened, and Palladium is $75 on the week. With no data out of Australia tonight, the technicals are front and center before Eurozone and U.S Flash PMIs tomorrow morning.

Technicals: Price action is breaking out of the minor bull-flag pattern that we discussed in the FX Rundown videos over the last two days. This immediate-term bullishness is running into our major three-star resistance at .... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to vie our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Canadian (December)

Session close: Settled at .77585, up 3.5 ticks

Fundamentals: The Canadian broke out in the exact manner that we expected. Today, technical resistance which we will discuss in the ‘Technical’ section below coupled with a soft session for energies held the currency back from further gains. Additionally, we have failed to hear positive news on a new NAFTA deal and traders were hesitant to position on either side of the trade ahead of tomorrow’s data dump. CPI and Retail Sales are both due at 7:30 am CT and we expect volatility. For this reason, we have recommended clients to exit all longs against major three-star resistance.

Technicals: Price action broke out perfectly from the bull-flag we discussed on our FX Rundown videos over the last two days and tested our major three-star resistance at .... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to vie our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

This article is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with iBlue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


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CME -Market Movers: 9/19 September FOMC Meeting


Hosts: Jim Iuorio, CNBC Contributor & TJM Institutional Services and Scott Martin, Fox News Contributor & Kingsview Asset Management

Date Published: September 19, 2018

Never miss out on daily futures and options trading opportunities - Click here to Subscribe to In FOCUS Newsletter for Active Traders.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from CME Group and is being posted with CME Group’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or CME Group and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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期权

Cboe - Vol 411: Markets Unshaken by Tariffs


Host Michael Palmer discusses VIX activity and the effects of tariffs.

Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, a person must receive a copy of Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Copies are available from your broker, or at www.theocc.com. The information in this program is provided solely for general education and information purposes. No statement within the program should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell a security or to provide investment advice. The opinions expressed in this program are solely the opinions of the participants, and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Cboe or any of its subsidiaries or affiliates. You agree that under no circumstances will Cboe or its affiliates, or their respective directors, officers, trading permit holders, employees, and agents, be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on information obtained from the program.

Copyright © 2018 Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated.   All rights reserved.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Cboe and is being posted with Cboe’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Cboe and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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固定收益

Interactive Brokers - Diageo's Credit Profile Dampens After Currency-related Profit Warning


British alcoholic beverage company Diageo (NYSE:DEO, LON:DGE) has felt the sting of foreign currency volatility, despite the recent recovery of certain riskier emerging market assets.

The London-based firm, responsible for iconic brands, including Johnny Walker, Tanqueray and Captain Morgan, claims to produce over 6.5bn liters of its products from more than 100 manufacturing sites in 30 countries.

Ahead of its Annual General Meeting 2018 Thursday, Diageo CEO Ivan Menezes said that while he expects organic net sales growth in its fiscal year 2019 to be consistent with its medium-term guidance of mid-single digit growth, DGE has “experienced some increased emerging market foreign exchange volatility, which has been partially offset by a strengthening of the dollar.”

Menezes added that based on current rates “we currently expect exchange to have a negative impact on net sales of £175m and a negative impact on operating profit of £45m for the fiscal year.”

The profit warning spurred DGE’s stock lower intraday Thursday, before retracing some of its losses.

Also, the yield on its euro-denominated 2.375% notes due May 2026 pointed higher on the day, and the company’s 5-year credit default swap (CDS) spread widened more than 3bps intraday to around 32.3bps, suggesting slightly dampened perceptions about the firm’s creditworthiness.

Analysts at Rareview Macro noted that emerging market risk assets have bounced about 3% over the past three days, amid China’s recent responses to trade battles with the U.S., including via retaliation and currency.

However, Rareview Macro questioned how emerging markets can outperform if U.S. yields pivot to a higher range, “especially if they continue to be led by ‘real interest rates’. Furthermore, Rareview Macro observed that the U.S. dollar is falling while interest rates are rising, adding that “this same decoupling of fundamentals was seen in January of this year – the broad U.S. dollar index (BBDXY) fell 4% while yields rose 25bps.”

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was last quoted at around 3.07%, after recently reaching a 52-week high of about 3.12%.

Meanwhile, DGE has already suffered from foreign currency translations.

In its preliminary results for its fiscal year ended June 30, 2018, DGE posted a 0.9% rise in net sales to £12.2bn, and a 3.7% uptick in operating profit to £3.7bn, as organic growth was partially offset by adverse exchange.

Overall, however, the damage from foreign exchange headwinds is likely to be eclipsed by DGE’s solid financial and operating profile.

Gimme Credit senior analyst Dave Novosel recently noted that he remains attracted to the company's “vast geographic footprint, steady organic sales growth, improving margins, good free cash flow, and relatively low leverage.” He added that certain of the firm’s bonds, including its 2023s, “would hold up very well in a period of extensive volatility.”

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The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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Interactive Brokers - Brief Market Commentary with Steve Sosnick - September 20, 2018


Steve Sosnick, Chief Options Strategist, gives brief market commentary for September 20.

The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


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