How does an event contract pay out?
Each contract is binary. It settles at its full contract value if the event resolves "Yes" and at zero if it resolves "No." Prices trade between those two endpoints (commonly quoted from about $0.01 up to $0.99 per contract), so the price at any moment reflects the market's estimate of how likely the event is to occur. A contract trading at $0.60, for example, implies roughly a 60% market-implied probability of a "Yes" outcome.
How and when do these contracts settle?
Each contract specifies the exact event, the reference used to measure it, and the expiration time. When the window closes, the exchange captures the settlement reference (for example, the underlying asset's price at expiration), determines whether the outcome is "Yes" or "No," and pays positions accordingly. Settlement terms are set by the listing exchange. Always check the individual contract's specifications, because the reference price and settlement method can differ between contracts and between exchanges.
How short is "short-term"? Can you give an example?
Some of these markets are extremely short-dated. As an illustration, Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin markets open a new pair of contracts (an "up" side and a "down" side) at the top of every quarter hour, trade for fifteen minutes, and settle the moment the window closes. Crypto markets run 24 hours a day, seven days a week, so new short-duration contracts can open around the clock, including weekends and holidays.
Where do I trade these contracts?
Through the Prediction Markets platform in your Interactive Brokers account. Prediction Markets shows the available exchanges (such as ForecastEx), the individual contracts, their current bid/ask prices, and full contract details.
The contracts on my screen keep changing. What is happening?
Short-duration contracts are periodically expiring and being replaced. To keep you looking at something tradable, Prediction Markets automatically rolls your view forward. As the contract you are watching reaches expiration and settles, the platform advances your view to the next contract in the same series. This is the newly listed window covering the next time period, so you are not left staring at an expired, untradable market.
A few things to keep in mind:
- The display moves forward, but your positions stay exactly as they are. Rolling the view forward does not create a new trade. Any position you hold in an expiring contract still settles on its own terms (at its full value or at zero), and no new position is opened for you automatically. If you want to take a position in a later window, you can place a new order to do so.
- The strike and price reset. Each new contract in the series has its own reference level and its own price. The next window does not carry over the price of the one that just expired. The result of one contract has no bearing on the next.
- Review your contracts carefully. Exchanges list new contracts every hour or 15 minutes, around the clock for crypto. Always confirm the contract, strike, and expiration shown before you trade, since the market in front of you may have just rolled to a new window.
Why do prices move so quickly?
Because these contracts are short-dated and/or track volatile underlyings, small moves in the underlying can cause large, rapid swings in contract prices, especially near expiration, when prices tend to converge quickly toward the full value or toward zero. Liquidity and spreads can also change materially over the life of a short-duration contract. This speed is central to why the category carries heightened requirements and limits.
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