Election prediction markets work by letting you take a position on a specific yes-or-no election question (for example, who wins, which party controls a chamber, or whether a candidate wins a state — depending on listings). If the outcome resolves in your favor, the event contract settles at a fixed value (commonly $1) and otherwise settles at $0, subject to the contract's terms.
How do election prediction markets work?
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What are Prediction Markets?
IBKR Prediction Markets offers exchange-listed event contracts that allow you to trade on yes-or-no outcomes across categories such as politics (including eligible U.S. elections), economics, finance, and climate indicators. At expiration, these contracts either settle at $0 or $1, depending on the outcome…
How can I track the probability?
IBKR Prediction Markets offers a chart to view market pricing changes over time for a given election question — effectively a real-time election prediction signal derived from trading activity. IBKR Prediction Markets surfaces these probabilities through Event Contract prices and percentage-style displays based on market sentiment…
What are US election prediction markets?
US election prediction markets are markets where eligible participants trade Yes/No contracts tied to US election outcomes, with prices updating as information changes. On IBKR Prediction Markets, these are event contracts presented as clear, outcome-based questions with fixed settlement values…
Short-Term and Volatile Event Contracts: The Basics
What is an event contract?
An event contract is a standardized, exchange-listed contract that lets you take a Yes/No position on the outcome of a specific, measurable event. For example, you can trade on whether a particular asset's price will be above a certain level at a set time. Each contract settles at a fixed value if the event happens ("Yes") and at zero if it does not ("No"). You can trade event contracts on Interactive Brokers through the Prediction Markets platform…