IBKR Prediction Markets offers exchange-listed event contracts that allow you to trade on yes-or-no outcomes across categories such as politics (including eligible U.S. elections), economics, finance, and climate indicators. At expiration, these contracts either settle at $0 or $1, depending on the outcome.
What are Prediction Markets?
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What are ForecastEx Forecast Contracts?
ForecastEx Forecast contracts let investors trade their view on the outcomes of various US economic events and global climate events with a specific question with a “yes or no” outcome.
They are Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly, Yearly expiring, cash settled, contracts on economic indicators, global climate events offering short-term trading opportunities for persons seeking to take a position on Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly, Yearly price moves on economic indicators, global climate events contracts…
What are US election prediction markets?
US election prediction markets are markets where eligible participants trade Yes/No contracts tied to US election outcomes, with prices updating as information changes. On IBKR Prediction Markets, these are event contracts presented as clear, outcome-based questions with fixed settlement values…
How do election prediction markets work?
Election prediction markets work by letting you take a position on a specific yes-or-no election question (for example, who wins, which party controls a chamber, or whether a candidate wins a state — depending on listings). If the outcome resolves in your favor, the event contract settles at a fixed value (commonly $1) and otherwise settles at $0, subject to the contract's terms…
Short-Term and Volatile Event Contracts: The Basics
What is an event contract?
An event contract is a standardized, exchange-listed contract that lets you take a Yes/No position on the outcome of a specific, measurable event. For example, you can trade on whether a particular asset's price will be above a certain level at a set time. Each contract settles at a fixed value if the event happens ("Yes") and at zero if it does not ("No"). You can trade event contracts on Interactive Brokers through the Prediction Markets platform…