Are election event contracts the same as polls?

In the event you submit an election for an open voluntary corporate action, IBKR will reflect your election as pending until the deadline of the offer. At the time of our submission of the elections to the depository or clearing agent, IBKR will run a check against current holdings in the account. If you have previously sold the shares on which you have elected, IBKR will reduce your election…

Markets estimate probability through trading, as prices move as participants incorporate new data releases, forecasts, and macro news into what they are willing to pay. IBKR Prediction Markets also highlights that the "Yes" price is based on how likely an event is to happen…

How does an event contract pay out?

Each contract is binary. It settles at its full contract value if the event resolves "Yes" and at zero if it resolves "No." Prices trade between those two endpoints (commonly quoted from about $0.01 up to $0.99 per contract), so the price at any moment reflects the market's estimate of how likely the event is to occur. A contract trading at $0.60, for example, implies roughly a 60% market-implied probability of a "Yes" outcome…

"Real-time election predictions" means continuously updating market-based probabilities that react quickly to new information (news, debates, polling releases, court decisions, etc.). Unlike a single poll, market prices can change any time participants re-price the likelihood of an outcome…