Блог IBKR Quant


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акции

Edison - UK Sparks: Kingfisher Profits Fall by 30%


Kingfisher, the DIY group that owns B&Q and Screwfix, has announced a 30% fall in pre-tax profits to £281m on sales slightly higher at £6bn.

Like-for-like sales fell by 0.5% in the UK and by 2.4% in France, where Kingfisher owns Castorama and Brico Dépôt.

The group warns that the outlook for its main markets continues to be mixed, though chief executive Véronique Laury remains confident of delivering her five-year transformation plan.

"Transformation on this scale is tough and there are challenges that we're working through," she says. "We're now halfway through our Kingfisher transformation and we are well on our way to becoming a truly customer-led, digital, and efficient business."

Bus and rail group Stagecoach says in a trading update it has made a “good” start to the year and its forecast for full-year profits is broadly unchanged.

Engineering services group Babcock says in a trading statement that it is trading in line with expectations and that its order book and pipeline remain strong.

The Competition and Markets Authority has referred the proposed £12bn merger between supermarket groups Sainsbury and Asda for an in-depth investigation. The companies had asked the regulator for a fast-track referral in August.

If approved by shareholders and competition regulators, the merger would create the UK's largest supermarket group, with a network of 2,800 Sainsbury's, Asda and Argos stores, pushing Tesco into second place.

And Funding Circle, the peer-to-peer lender, has priced its flotation on The London Stock Exchange at between 420p-530p a share, valuing the company at between £1.45bn-£1.75 bn.

Andrew Cave

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This material is from Edison and is being posted with Edison’s permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Edison and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


20447




Macro

Eurex: BOJ Unch., Chinese Premier Li: Won't Devalue CNY


Morning Briefing September 19th 2018


Wednesday's calendar starts early, with Switzerland's GDP forecast expected at 0545GMT. The previous forecasts for growth in 2018 and 2019 were 2.4% and 2.0% respectively.

Next up is the ACEA European car registrations data for August, due at 0600GMT. The previous y/y growth rate for the eurozone was 5.2%.

At 0630GMT BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks in Japan at a press conference after the two day policy board meeting.

Back to the Euro Area at 0800GMT with their current account data for July. June recorded a surplus of EUR 24bn.

The UK's CPI, PPI and house price index data will be published at 0830GMT. After July saw a headline rate of 2.5% y/y, the MNI median points to a 2.4% y/y rate in August. However, if past August MNI medians are anything to go by, there could be an upward surprise.

The Euro Area construction output data is at 0900GMT. In July, the m/m and y/y growth rates were 0.2% and 2.6% respectively.

The US calendar gets underway at 1100GMT with their MBA mortgage applications data. The previous growth rate in August was -1.8%.

At 1230GMT is the US current account data and housing starts for Q2 and August respectively. In Q1, the current account deficit was USD 124.1bn, but this is anticipated to narrow to USD 103bn for Q2. The seasonally adjusted pace of housing starts is expected to rise further to a 1.245 million annual rate in August after moving up slightly in July. Multi-family building is seen as key upside factor. The NAHB index fell to 67 in August. As inventories remain tight, builders will likely find it advantageous to boost output. The pace of building permits is expected to rise to a 1.320 million annual rate from the revised 1.303 million rate in July.

ECB President Mario Draghi is speaking at 1300GMT in Berlin. BBK Board member Joachim Wuermeling speaks at 1500GMT in Hamburg..

Global Economic Trading Calendar


Markets


US TSYS: It has been an extremely quiet session for the space, with T-Notes sticking to a 2+ tick range, while the cash curve sits a touch flatter following the steepening observed on Tuesday. - Regional Asia-Pacific equities have traded firmly, following an upbeat Tuesday in terms of risk sentiment. - Eurodollar futures trade 0.5 to 1.0 tick lower last.

JGBS: JGB futures have edged away from the opening session lows, after softening in the overnight session, with cash yields edging ever so slightly higher. - The BOJ left its MonPol settings unchanged at its latest MonPol decision as exp. with 2 dissenters at the meeting. Harada wanted the forward guidance adapted to further clarify its relation with the Bank's CPI target, as he deems the current guidance as too ambiguous. Kataoka continued to dissent against the idea that inflation will converge to 2%. - It is worth noting that there will be ~Y20tn worth of redemptions in the space tomorrow.

AUSSIE BONDS: Aussie Bonds have struggled to turn bid after tracking U.S. Tsys lower on SYCOM, with a recent bout of heavy selling orders in YMZ8 pushing the contract below technical support, adding fresh weight to the complex. The move has extended on the back of comments from Chinese Premier Li, who has noted that China will not devalue the Yuan to stimulate exports. - 3-Month BBSW fixed largely unchanged today, up a mere 0.06bp, while RBA OMO rates hit the highest level since Mar 29, jumping to 2.178%. Quarter end pressures seem to be playing out more in the basis & OMO space than in BBSW this time around. The Bill strip last trades 1-7 ticks lower.

STOCKS: Asia-Pacific equities benefitted from the strong lead off of Wall St., with the Nikkei 225 gaining extra support from a softer JPY & the BOJ leaving its MonPol settings unchanged. - Elsewhere Chinese mainland stocks added to their impressive late rally from Tuesday, as the CSI 300 added 1.1%. Chinese Premier Li continued to stress that the country would not engage in competitive devaluation. - The Hang Seng followed suit adding 1.0%, with the ASX 200 the major laggard, adding 0.5% as health care names continued to add pressure on the back of unfavourable reports for the space, made earlier this week.

OIL: WTI & Brent last trade virtually unchanged vs. settlement levels. - Reports noted that the latest API crude inventory data showed an unexpected build in headline crude stocks on Tuesday, with a larger than exp. build in distillates and larger than exp. draw in gasoline stocks also noted. - Earlier Tuesday, BBG source reports suggested that Saudi Arabia was comfortable with oil prices above $80, which supported prices. - The latest JODI data pointed to lower Saudi crude exports in July vs. June, alongside a dip in output. - The upcoming JMMC meeting is at the fore of traders' minds, with reports noting that the Iranian oil minister will not attend the upcoming summit in Algiers. - Elsewhere Venezuelan Pres Maduro stated that the PDVSA will double its oil production by the middle of August next year (as a reminder the state owned firm recently received a cash injection from China).

GOLD: The yellow metal edged back above $1200/oz overnight as longer dated U.S. Tsy yields ticked away from Tuesday's closing levels.

FOREX: The USD came under pressure in early Asia-Pacific trade, although the move was modest & ultimately retraced. Cable was the root cause/major beneficiary following an Express interview in which PM May noted that the UK's "exit deal is virtually agreed." GBP was also supported by EU's Barnier pointing towards an amended Irish backstop. BoE's Vlieghe noted that UK wages are exp. to grow, albeit slowly. Cable last deals at ~$1.3150, after a brief look above the recent highs, topping out at $1.3176. - RBA's Kent offered little on MonPol for AUD traders, although AUD did benefit from an uptick in local yields & Chinese Premier Li noting that China will not pursue CNY devaluation to support exports. The Antipodeans were the major beneficiaries amongst the G10 on the Li headlines, which came after NZD/USD proved to be immune to soft NZ cons. confidence data & a wider than exp. NZ current a/c deficit. USD/JPY last deals unch., operating in a narrow range. The BOJ's latest MonPol decision offered little to inspire traders, as the Bank left its MonPol settings unch. with the usual dissenting votes/factors in play.

Technical Analysis


BUND TECHS: (Z18) Downtrend Gathering Pace

Dec-18 Bund futures posted weak close yesterday, breaking firmly below the 100-dma at 159.07 to keep the focus firmly on the Aug 1 lows at 158.37. A break below here would suggest further medium-term weakness. Bulls need a break above the 100-dma to regain some breathing room and overcome the Sep 12 high at 159.79 to return the outlook to neutral. Above the Sep 6 high at 160.48 would be needed to shift the focus higher to target the 160.98 Sep 3 high.

EUROSTOXX50: Recovery Builds

Eurostoxx50 broke back above the Aug 15 low yesterday to build on its rally, with the next upside target at the Aug 28 high of 3426.81. The short-term trend is positive but the bigger picture is still negative. Bears look for a close back below yesterday's low at 3337.37 to return the focus to the March 26 low of 3261.86.

Eurex Futures Market Close


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This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


20446




Futures

Blue Line Futures - FX Rundown


Euro (December)

Session close: Settled at 1.1768, up 52.5 ticks

Fundamentals: The Euro posted a strong start to the week along with the British Pound as traders look to the first of three EU summits Wednesday as a step towards reaching a Brexit deal. The U.S Dollar was also broadly weaker against all major currencies on the heels of last week’s soft inflation data and after NY Empire State Manufacturing missed expectations this morning. This morning, the final read on August Eurozone CPI was right in line with expectations. Also, the German Bundesbank released their Monthly Report and they voiced an upbeat tone on the economy. They noted better than expected sentiment and were confident that manufacturing will pick up in the coming months. All in all, this was a great start to one of the slower weeks on the economic calendar this month. Tomorrow, ECB President Mario Draghi is expected to speak at 3:15 am CT. From the U.S, a stretch of housing data over the next few days kicks off with NAHB Housing Market Index at 9:00 am CT.

Technicals: Today was a very constructive session given Friday’s weakness. The Euro is back near 1.18 and again facing a critical band of resistance. First, multiple technical indicators including a trend line that was tested last week align directly overhead at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Yen (December)

Session close: Settled at .8997, up 11.5 ticks

Fundamentals: We have been calling the Yen a very unenthusiastic trade and ultimately, that is exactly what it comes down to. Safe-haven spikes have proven to be prime fading opportunities. Not only has Japan’s proximity to China reduced the ability of the Yen to capitalize on trade war fears, the Bank of Japan has failed to follow through on firming up a time frame to tighten monetary policy. Still, traders will be on edge Tuesday night for the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy meeting and any signs that point to a potential shift in policy at the end of the first quarter next year. The Yen notched a gain of only 0.1% today although both the Dollar Index and the S&P lost about 0.5%. Today was a small step forward, but the next two steps back are casting a large shadow.

Technicals: Price action has struggled to hold ground and as we pointed to .9000 as the benchmark in the September contract, we now look to ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Aussie (December)

Session close: Settled at .7183, up 15 ticks

Fundamentals: The Aussie’s recovery from the lowest level since February 2016 will certainly get put to the test over the next 24 hours. The obvious headwind is President Trump imposing 10% tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods starting next week. China is Australia’s number one trade partner and the trade war will continue to take a toll on the entire region. Secondly, the RBA holds a policy meeting at 8:30 pm CT. Their tone has slowly become more dovish but not only so because of the trade war, lenders have raised rates on borrowers and this has tightened policy for the central bank. Traders must keep an ear to the ground on the development on both fronts.

Technicals: Price action has staged a shallow recovery and is attempting to build a bull flag from the two-day spike through September 13th and must close out above first key resistance at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Canadian (December)

Session close: Settled at .76895, up 2.5 ticks

Fundamentals: Canadian Foreign Minister Freeland said today that she will be back in Washington this week to continue talks in hopes of reaching a new NAFTA deal by October 1st. President Trump has threatened to leave Canada out of a deal with Mexico if the two sides cannot come together. While this seems extremely unlikely especially since Washington will be under greater pressure with the newly imposed $200 billion in tariffs on China, at this point, traders must prepare for any possibility. While we find the Canadian positioned very well for longer-term gains, it is under pressure due to the China tariffs and this also casts doubt in the near-term.

Technicals: The Canadian settled back below the .7698 pivot which begins to negate some of its near-term strength. However, what traders must watch most closely is first key support at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

This article is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with iBlue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


20444




Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (September 18)


MARKET

China equities surged about 2% in afternoon, as National Development and Reform Commission stressed to continue pushing infrastructure plans forward. Construction and Construction Material were the best performers, while no sector fell. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 253.5 bn, up 22.64% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

2699.95

1.82

113.03

-18.36

Shenzhen

8133.22

1.67

140.63

-26.33

CSI 300

3269.43

2.01

83.90

-18.89

ChiNext

1377.30

2.04

42.57

-21.42

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Construction

600939

Construction Material

300345

Downward-leading

 

 

 

 

 

NEWS

*China’s No. 1 Hotpot Chain Said to Price $963 Million IPO at Top. Haidilao International Holding Ltd., China’s biggest hotpot restaurant chain, has raised $963 million after pricing its Hong Kong initial public offering at the top end of a marketed range, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The Beijing-based company sold 424.5 million shares at HK$17.80 apiece, the people said, asking not to be identified because the information is private. (Bloomberg)

 

FUND FLOW

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


20443




Technical Analysis

Tradable Patterns - Gold (GC) Consolidating Near 4 Month Downchannel Resistance


Gold (GC) edged higher yesterday, and continues what appears to be an effort to reverse a 4 plus month long downchannel.  GC remains poised to push higher the balance of this week on the continued vulnerability of the US Dollar to a deeper correction.  Significantly, GC is testing the weekly chart downchannel resistance, and consolidating near a similarly drawn downchannel resistance (on the daily chart).  Except for the daily Stochastics which droops slightly down, the weekly, daily and 4hr equivalents are bottomish.  I am long as of today at 1204.6, targeting the red zone (of the daily chart) for Friday.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I sometimes set my stops tighter).
 
Gold (CME GC Dec18) Weekly/Daily/4hr
 
 
Click here for today's technical analysis on Nasdaq100, EURUSD
 

As seen on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset, Interactive Brokers, Inside Futures and Zerohedge, Tradable Patterns was launched to demonstrate that the patterns recurring in liquid futures and spot FX markets can be analyzed to enhance trading performance. Tradable Patterns’ daily newsletter provides technical analysis on a subset of three CME/ICE/Eurex futures (commodities, equity indices, and interest rates), spot FX and cryptocurrency markets, which it considers worth monitoring for the day/week for trend reversal or continuation. For less experienced traders, tutorials and workshops are offered online and throughout Southeast Asia.

 

This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 

 


20442




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Уведомления

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