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Technical Analysis

Arabica Coffee (KC) Daily MACD Trying to Positively Cross


Arabica Coffee (KC) bounced almost 2% yesterday, reinforcing a higher low (last week) versus April's low.  Although KC is firmly still within a descending wedge/downchannel (on the weekly chart), it is worth monitoring for a major trend reversal as hinted by the impressive ~1.15-1.26 rally in the 2nd half of April.  The weekly, daily and 4hr RSI, Stochastics and MACD are bottomish, rallying or consolidating recent gains.  I am looking to enter long in the green zone (of the daily chart), targeting the red zone for Thursday.  The amber/yellow zone is where I might place a stop if I was a swing trader (although in my personal account with which I seldom hold overnight I set my stops tighter).


Arabica Coffee (ICE CC Jul17) Weekly/Daily/4hr



Click here for today's technical analysis on Raw Sugar, Cocoa

 

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This article is from Tradable Patterns and is being posted with Tradable Patterns’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Tradable Patterns and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


18074




Macro

Italian Politics Continue To Dominate, President To Meet M5S & League Chiefs re: PM


Morning Briefing May 22nd 2018


With parts of Europe still off enjoying the extended Whitsun vacation, Tuesday’s docket begins later on in the day, at 0830GMT, with the release of the UK's Public Sector Finance data. This is the first PSF release of the financial year, therefore estimates will struggle to correctly predict the outcome.

Nonetheless, analysts anticipate that public sector net borrowing excluding intermediaries will stand at stg8.5 billion from the stg1.3 billion seen in March.

Next up in the UK is the CBI Industrial Trends survey at 1000GMT. MNI analysts expect the total order books balance to moderate to 2 from a prior reading of 4.

Moving to the afternoon, Canada provide us with their wholesale trade data at 1230 GMT. Last time out wholesale sales declined by 0.8% in m/m terms.

Global Economic Trading Calendar


Markets


SNAPSHOT: Below gives key levels of markets in the second half of the Asia-Pac session: - Nikkei 225 down 21.04 points at 22981.43 - ASX 200 down 50.689 points at 6033.8 - Shanghai Comp. down 12.731 points at 3201.109 - JGB 10-Yr future up 2 ticks at 150.73, yield down 0.2bp at 0.057% - Aussie 10-Yr future up 3 ticks at 97.13, yield down 2.9bp at 2.859% - US 10-Yr future up 2+ ticks at 118.29+, yield down 0.73bp at 3.0523%

US TSYS: There has been little in the way of inspiration for Tsy traders, with Fed non-voter Kashkari offering his usual dovish remarks heading into early Asia-Pacific hours. This came after voter Bostic & non-voter Harker offered little new in front of the FOMC May meeting Minutes due Wednesday. - Tsys have edged higher, with T-Notes marginally bettering Monday's high.

JGBS: JGB futures stuck to an extremely tight range in the morning session, and went into the lunch break 4 ticks higher at 150.75, with the JPY ever so slightly stronger, and the Nikkei 225 virtually unchanged, albeit marginally weaker on the day.

JGBS AUCTION: The Japanese Ministry of Finance (MOF) sells Y799.8bln of 20-Year JGBs - Average Yield: 0.5320% (prev. 0.500%); Average Price: 99.42 (prev. 100.00) - High Yield: 0.5330% (prev. 0.505%); Low Price: 99.40 (prev. 99.90) - % Allotted At High Yield: 87.1182% (prev. 3.4296%) - Bid/Cover: 4.120 (prev. 3.695)

AUSSIE BONDS: It has been a very muted session for the space, with Bonds operating near there closing SYCOM levels. 3-Year Bond futures last trade at 97.760 (+1.5 ticks), while 10-Year bond futures trade at 97.130 (+3.0 ticks). - The domestic 3-/10-Year yield differential sits 1.4bp flatter at 65.6bp, while the AU/US 10-Year yield differential trades 0.2bp wider at -19.2bp.

STOCKS: The major Asia-Pacific indices were mostly lower on Tuesday, with a lack of fundamental news flow apparent. - Japan's Nikkei 225 lost 0.1% as health care and energy dragged, while telecoms & consumer staples provided the largest upticks. - The Hang Seng bucked the trend as it added 0.6%, with the energy sector applying the most weight, although the majority of sectors were higher, led by the consumer discretionary & utilities spaces. - China's CSI 300 shed 0.7% with property developers leading the fall, while baby related names moved higher amid reports that China is considering scrapping birth limits. - The ASX 200 lost 0.8%, following on from yesterday's underperformance, as the telecom sector applied the most weight, with all the major sectors moving lower. - US index futures posted marginal gains, with the e-mini S&P 1 point higher as the mini Dow added the best part of 30 points.

OIL: The major crude benchmarks posted modest gains overnight with WTI adding $0.20 and Brent adding $0.15 to trade at $72.45 & $79.35 respectively. - US President Trump has prohibited Americans from buying Venezuelan gov't debt, in addition to debt linked to the state-owned oil company following the re-election of Venezuelan President Maduro, which lent support to crude on Monday. - Iranian tensions continue to simmer, after US Secretary of State Pompeo outlined a fresh batch of sanctions on Monday.

GOLD: Gold shed $2 to trade at $1290/oz.

FOREX: The JPY has outperformed in Asia-Pacific hours, although it has only managed to lodge modest gains, with USDJPY operating sub-111.0 for the majority of the session. BoJ Gov. Kuroda & Deputy Gov. Wakatabe offered little fresh in the way of the insights into MonPol. Kuroda suggested that the BoJ is on the right path, while noting that we shouldn't expect the average duration of the BoJ's JGB holdings to change by much. Wakatabe noted that the BoJ could do more re: easing if required, but stressed that such a move wasn't his base case. - GBPUSD stopped short of the 50%/61.8% retracement of the 1.3493-1.3391 move (1.3442-54) in early dealing, and last trades at 1.3420. EURUSD last 1.1790, back from highs just shy of 1.1800, with Italy's President due to meet with the M5S & League leaders after receiving their PM nomination. Sources noted decent interest in the 1.1823 June 4 EURUSD calls during Monday's London/NY session, with some EUR1.5bln changing hands. The antipodeans stuck to a tight range.

Technical Analysis


 BUND: (M18) 159.69 Resistance Key Today

*RES 4: 160.26 Low Dec 13 now resistance
*RES 3: 159.69 Monthly High Mar 28
*RES 2: 159.58 Bollinger band top
*RES 1: 159.55 High Apr 18

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 159.39

*SUP 1: 158.88 Hourly support May 21
*SUP 2: 158.52 21-DMA
*SUP 3: 157.61 Low May 15
*SUP 4: 157.43 Low Mar 24    

*COMMENTARY: Gains continue with immediate bullish focus on 159.69 today. Daily studies are well placed for a fresh leg higher with the Bollinger top the key concern for bulls. Bulls need a close above 159.69 to confirm a break of the 200-WMA (159.64) and to shift immediate focus to 160.26-98. Initial support is noted on the hourlies at 158.88 with bears needing a close below to gain breathing room and below the 21-DMA to shift focus back to 157.34-61.
 

EUROSTOXX50: 3600.36 Resistance Key This Week

*RES 4: 3687.22 2018 High Jan 23
*RES 3: 3662.86 Low Jan 21 now resistance
*RES 2: 3636.22 Monthly High Feb 1
*RES 1: 3600.36 Low Jan 31 now resistance, Bollinger top

*PREVIOUS CLOSE: 3572.57

*SUP 1: 3566.53 Low May 18
*SUP 2: 3549.26 Low May 10
*SUP 3: 3547.59 21-DMA
*SUP 4: 3540.14 Low May 7

*COMMENTARY: Lackluster sideways trading came to an end with a rally and bullish close Thursday that added support to the case for a move targeting 2018 highs with above 3600.36 needed to confirm. Hesitation ahead of this level is a concern with bears needing a close below 3549.26 to ease bullish pressure and below the 200-DMA (3517.70) to shift initial focus back to 3464.35.

Eurex Futures Market Close


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This article is from Eurex Exchange and is being posted with Eurex Exchange’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Eurex Exchange and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


18073




Futures

FX Rundown


Euro (June)

Session close: Settled at 1.1795

Fundamentals: Volume was decent today given the German holiday. Late Friday, Italy’s Five Star Movement and the League agreed on a coalition to bring a populist government to Italy. They are calling for large spending increases; massive tax cuts, welfare, pension reforms and more. Italian stocks lost 1.5% on the session and are down 3% over the last month. Italian 10-years gained 15 basis points on the session on fears that the government will not be able to meet payments. While this weakened the Euro, the Dollar also strengthened on news that the U.S and China trade war is “on hold for now”. The Euro traded to a new low of 1.17395 and tested major three-star support but has pared all loses back to unchanged on the session. This morning, Chicago Fed National Activity came in better than expected. Fed President Bostic did not update his stance on the path of rates but maintained that the U.S is close to meeting the Fed’s employment and inflation goals. Fed President Harker pointed to two and maybe three more hikes this year if inflation continues to firm, however, there was not much of a reaction and he is not a voting member this year. Fed President Kashkari speaks at 4:30 pm CT, he is a dovish view at the Fed but not a voting member this year.

Technicals: Today was the session we have been waiting for in the Euro; major three-star support at 1.1735 was achieved. Furthermore, the Dollar Index neared and failed at its major three-star resistance at 94.00-94.25 with a high of 93.965. We are now Bullish in Bias, the momentum feels to have turned and the downside feels exhausted; if we are not going to take a shot long now, then, when would we? First resistance comes in at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

Yen (June)

Session close: Settled at .9015

Fundamentals: The Yen posted another losing session and dipped its head below .9000 for much of the early morning before paring some losses. Trade Balance data Sunday night was a positive but comes on the heels of a string of poor reads. The real weight came on Dollar strength after a trade war between the U.S and China has been averted for now; this took some risk premium out of the safe-haven currency, however, U.S Treasuries and Gold traded much better from overnight lows. Also, Japan’s government approved a change made in the policy statement by the Bank of Japan in their recent quarterly report; they removed a time-frame to achieve its inflation target. BoJ Core CPI data is due at midnight CT.

Technicals: We have maintained a slight Bearish Bias in the Yen, pointing to such as long as the currency remains below the 200-day moving average which comes in today at .9168. Our target to the downside is ...  Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels

 

 

Aussie (June)

Session close: Settled at .7571

Fundamentals: The Aussie was one of the biggest beneficiaries on the currency side with the reduction in trade fears. It gained 1% today and saw support from the metals and energy sectors as well after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that the U.S and China have put the trade war on hold and China will ramp up buying of U.S agricultural and energy products. This presented an opportunity to go long Sunday night with the idea of a relief rally for the Aussie in sight. There is no data tonight and we look to Westpac Consumer Sentiment and Construction data tomorrow evening.

Technicals: We did introduce a slight Bearish Bias on our last FX Rundown on Thursday evening after a series of lower highs, however, we specifically said that we must see a close below .7470 in order to confirm this. Friday’s settlement was .7511. In fact, Sunday night’s open became a true buying opportunity given the fundamental news. Now though, price action is out above first key resistance and momentum should be able to carry it ...  Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels

 

 

Canadian (June)

Session close: Settled at .7811

Fundamentals: Today was Victoria Day, a banking holiday in Canada. Still the currency notched a solid session pushing gains to 0.75% into the electronic session. The Canadian was late to the party but the buyers stepped up after 10:00 am CT when the price of Crude and Gasoline began to rip higher. Price action plummeted on Friday on a horrendous Core Retail Sales read that came in at -0.2% versus +0.5% expected. Core excludes autos while the headline read actually doubled the 0.3% expectations. CPI was an unenthusiastic number. Without any news on NAFTA ahead of the weekend, traders were quick to hit the sell button on the data. Tomorrow, Wholesale Sales is due at 7:30 am CT. Now that the U.S and China trade talks have take a positive turn for the near but foreseeable futures, more bandwidth can be applied to NAFTA ahead of nearing deadlines.

Technicals: The Canadian struggled to hold the .7790 pivot on Friday, but with price action back above there today, we remain slightly Bullish in Bias. First key resistance comes in at ...  Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

This article is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with iBlue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


18072




Macro

Interactive Brokers - Weekly Roundup


The analysis in this article is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


18067




Macro

Morningstar - Oil Prices This High Are Not Sustainable


We see the price of oil, along with the valuations of many E&P stocks, as frothy today, but DiamondBack is one pocket of value.

Morningstar provides a constant source for investment ideas with our comprehensive analyst reports on equities, ETFs, and credit ratings from more than 100 analysts. U.S. Interactive Brokers clients can sign up for a free trial of these reports in Account Management.

This video is from Morningstar and is being posted with Morningstar's permission. The information provided in this video is from Morningstar and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


18063




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