IBKR金融アナリストのブログ


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Macro

Janus Henderson - Summer Break: Don't Miss an Opportunity to Connect with Your Clients with Kids - By Eric Magyar


The summer may be the perfect time to connect with your clients—and their children. Learn how to use the slower months to curate memorable events for the whole family.

Addressing your clients’ needs and helping them achieve their goals is a daily priority, one that’s always top of mind. These may be individuals that you have worked with for 20 or 30 years, often with great success. But even in a relationship that spans decades, the subject of either party’s children may never arise. This can lead to a missed opportunity for growing your business not just over a lifetime, but across generations.

In showing gratitude for your clients, spouses are often the go-to gateways to deeper, more personal relationships. You may reach out to parents on Mother’s Day and Father’s Day, perhaps, and make sure to celebrate other milestones. Take the next step by implementing a systematic approach to their children’s special days, as well.

Seen from the youngsters’ perspective, there are few days that are more anticipated than the end of the school year and the beginning of summer vacation. Newly freed kids should be treated as more than appendages to their parents, who will appreciate that you made an effort to engage their young companions.

As outlined in Janus Henderson Labs’ The Art of WOW’s Gratitude Gains, thoughtfully considered action tailored to clients’ personalities can produce a significant asset advantage. Plan ahead for birthdays and graduations, for example, and ask clients to keep you in the loop on their offsprings’ other noteworthy achievements. Summer also means vacations, camps and sports leagues, so there are plenty of opportunities to WOW both generations with a timely token of appreciation.

No Children Please

I received an invitation to a client appreciation event at a racetrack that stated, “No Children Please.” Imagine my surprise when we arrived only to discover that the track was holding a kid-centric event on the same date. The message was mixed, but my feeling of indignation was not.

Few appreciation events encourage clients to bring their kids along. An invitation that includes the phrase “No Children Please” makes the mistake of focusing solely on people with investable assets, and those three little words ignore the significant position children occupy in the lives of your clients. While planning for their own future, they’re also thinking about what the years ahead hold for their most precious assets: their daughters and sons.

Inviting children to be active participants in their parents’ financial planning should be part of your routine, not a once-a-year exception. In addition to rethinking adults-only events, the following are simple yet effective office upgrades to consider.

  • Make your office an inviting environment for young families by implementing a children-welcome policy and keeping fun “kid swag” on hand to distribute
  • Carve out a kid-friendly corner of your space, especially when school is out for the summer and children are more frequent guests at meetings. Think “dentist’s waiting room” and populate the corner with bright colors, children’s books and puzzles
  • Increase face-time frequency and plant the seeds of a multi-generational relationship by inviting families with young children to join you for a mid-year review
  • Turn “No Children Please” into “Bring Your Kids!” by hosting a paint night or renting a pool. Sure, you can bring a kid along to a wine tasting, but they’re certain to feel bored and excluded

Financial Education, Junior Edition

“Formal education will make you a living; self-education will make you a fortune.”

– Jim Rohn

Kids don’t learn financial literacy in school, so transform your office into a classroom by introducing budget basics to the children and grandchildren of clients. You might also consider hosting a workshop in your conference room or at a casual restaurant. Possible topics include:

  • Needs versus wants
  • Time value of money
  • Saving for a first car and home
  • Planning for retirement

Parents will approve of the dose of common sense these conversations provide, while kids will benefit from a spoonful of sugar in the form of advice from a non-parent, non-teacher adult. Make a family project out of saving for goals, and demonstrate how a small investment can grow into a meaningful nest egg. Likewise, the time you invest now in your clients’ children can lead to mutually beneficial growth in the future.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This article is from Janus Henderson Investors and is being posted with Janus Henderson Investors’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Janus Henderson Investors and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


19007




Securities Lending

FIS Astec - Europe - Market Brief Week Ending July 13, 2018


Europe

Top pick

Debenhams PLC (DEB)

Absent from the hot stocks list since last September, Debenhams, the UK-based department store which operates 240 stores across 27 countries, is back as our top pick this week as the company issues its third profits warning in a row. Short sellers aggressively built positions in the last quarter of 2017, pushing utilization to 77 percent going into January, banking some gains by April as the shares fell from around £0.35 to £0.20. Utilization dropped to under 50 percent in late April, before building once more, closing last week at 67 percent despite a small drop off in volume over the past 10 days, as the shares closed at just under £0.15, just above the 12-month low. With the retailer struggling against multiple market pressures and falling profits, despite a turnaround plan in full swing, the return of the short sellers does not bode well for stability even at £0.15 a share.

 

  1. Duerr AG (DUEG) – Moving up from the number five slot last week to the number one slot this week is Duerr AG, the German-based services and equipment provider to automobile and aircraft industries. The previous appearance identified a sharp increase of some 200 percent in short interest volume, with a much slower growth in utilization suggesting a surge in buying by institutional funds in the market. This last week has seen an additional 12 percent growth in volume, this time matched closely by a 12 percent growth in utilization, ending the week at just under 40 percent. The cost to borrow remains low, as supply remains strong, but the small boost in the share price, up from €37.78 to €38.37, which may be a product of the additional buying activity rather than any fundamental change, is certainly not enough to unnerve short sellers who continue to build positions.

 

  1. Vallourec SA (VLLP) – Retaining a slot on the hot stocks list this week is Vallourec, the France-based steel tube manufacturer, making its sixth appearance in the last seven weeks. The battle that has been continuing between long and short position holders may now be tipping more toward those who have a negative sentiment toward Vallourec. The last week has seen short interest volume fall by 2 percent, yet utilization has grown by 5 percent to close the week at 76 percent. This divergence of measures indicates a reduction in the market supply of Vallourec shares, in turn indicating that large, institutional funds are selling out of their positions. The share price had jumped to €5.44 midweek, raising the hope of those holding long positions. However, this was short-lived as the shares closed the week at €5.18, having appreciated a net 2 percent, or €0.10.

 

  1. Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD) – Absent from the hot stocks list for two months, Nomad Foods, a frozen foods company with a stable of well-known food brands such as Findus and Birds Eye, is back this week as short interest fell to a 12-month low, before spiking upward once more. In May, short interest had dropped sharply from the 12-month peak, dropping almost 74 percent in three weeks. Volume continued to fall until the middle of last week, when it dropped by 10 percent, before jumping up at the end of the week, rising a net 117 percent overall. June 28 saw Nomad shares hit a 12-month peak of $19.81, up some 38 percent over the last 12 months, but over the last week, the shares have been heading south, closing on Friday at $18.53. The downturn in share price, following a long rise, plus the reversal of short interest volume could signal a change in sentiment toward Nomad, who may have lost its way.

 

  1. Steris PLC (STE) – Steris PLC, a UK-based manufacturer of infection prevention equipment for healthcare providers, is back on the hot stocks list this week as short sellers potentially approach an inflection point. Short interest volume has been on the decline since late April, pushing utilization below 5 percent, the lowest level since last October. Short sellers have been closing out their positions, insulating themselves against a strongly rising share price, up 34 percent over the last year, closing last week at $110.38. However, the decline has all but come to a halt, as volume hit a 12-month low before adding back 5 percent over the last 10 days, suggesting short sellers may be starting to pay more attention to a potentially over bought stock.

 

  1. Livanova PLC (LIVN) – Livanova, the UK-based pharmaceutical company specializing in therapeutic proteins, is back on the hot stocks list this week, down one position compared to last week. Having been a regular member of the hot stocks list over an extended period, the share price was initially on a decline, but with short sellers closing out their exposures to a rising share price more recently, last week may have seen yet another shift. Short interest volume hit a 12-month low midweek, before turning upward once more, adding a net gain of 63 percent over the last seven days. The share price struck a 12-month peak of $105.90 in mid-June, up some 73 percent over the last 12 months, but closed last week at $102.59. With the shares appearing to hit a ceiling, and short interest rebuilding, albeit in early days, this may mark a turnaround for Livanova.

 

DISCLAIMER: This document has been prepared by FIS Securities Finance LLC’s Astec Analytics business (“FIS”). The content of this document is intended for informational purposes only. FIS and its affiliates make no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. In no event shall FIS and its affiliates be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken by you or anyone else in reliance on or in connection with the information contained herein. FIS is not in any manner providing any type of brokerage or investment advisory services nor is it acting in any capacity as a broker-dealer or investment advisor and the document should not be a basis for making any investment or financial decision. You should seek the assistance of a financial or other professional advisor for advice before taking any action or making any decision based on the information contained herein.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This article is from FIS' Astec Analytics and is being posted with FIS' Astec Analytics' permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or FIS' Astec Analytics and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


19132




FX取引

PIMCO - Yuan Decline: Concerning But Not Systemic - By Isaac Meng


Amid fears of escalating trade tensions, the yuan’s sharp depreciation against the dollar last month has spooked some investors who see similarities with China’s currency devaluation in 2015, an episode that prompted capital outflows and roiled markets worldwide. Yet despite the similarities, differences in the macroeconomic backdrop suggest the global repercussions will be more limited this time.

Similarities

Both episodes shocked markets. Over the past 12 months, the yuan had fallen against the dollar but at a relatively stable pace. Yet in the three-week span following the Federal Reserve’s 13 June interest rate hike and subsequent dovish moves from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the yuan plunged as much as 5.0%. The devaluation on 11 August 2015 was even more abrupt: The yuan dropped by 2% in a single day as markets reacted to the unexpected de-pegging of the Chinese currency from the U.S. dollar (see chart).

The yuan’s decline in both cases also reflected worsening macroeconomic pressures. Three years ago, it was the crash of China’s A share market and cascading margin liquidation that compounded acute growth-deflation pressure. The recent move reflects escalating trade tensions with the U.S. and policy-induced domestic debt deleveraging.

Finally, both episodes occurred when the yuan was slightly overvalued. Interest rate differentials between the yuan and dollar were narrowing when the PBOC eased policy on 25 June by cutting banks’ required reserve ratio. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve remains on its tightening path.

Differences

The key difference between the episodes, of course, is trade relations with the U.S. On 5 July, Washington imposed 25% tariffs on an initial $34 billion of merchandise, prompting an immediate tit-for-tat response from Beijing. We estimate U.S. tariffs will trim 10-20 basis points off Chinese GDP. The threat of 10% tariffs on an additional $200 billion of Chinese goods could inflict further damage.

Although the PBOC has categorically ruled out using foreign exchange policy as a trade tactic, a more market-driven exchange rate will inevitably reflect negative fundamentals. For instance, a trade compromise between Beijing and Washington, should we see one, would almost certainly entail a sizable reduction in China’s $300 billion surplus. (China’s current account has shrunk to near zero, a sharp drop from 2.7% of GDP in 2015.)

Going forward, we expect moderate depreciation of the yuan, which may help offset the impact of U.S. tariffs. Indeed, the central bank has shown willingness to tolerate higher volatility and to let the currency act as a shock absorber – as long as the moves are driven by fundamentals and there’s no big spillover to financial stability.

Markets also seem more comfortable with yuan volatility. Whereas the devaluations in 2015 and 2016 triggered a surge of capital outflows, today many Chinese households and companies have sizable foreign assets and foreign exchange hedges. Indeed, despite the yuan’s weakening in June, there were strong inflows into China’s government bond market.

This likely reflects a perception of restored credibility in China’s currency regime. PBOC policy communications have become quite effective and likely helped prevent overshooting last month. Thus, so long as the yuan’s depreciation is driven by cyclical policy divergence and reflects the negative impact of protectionist pressures, we don’t think Beijing will draw any lines in the sand for the yuan-dollar exchange rate.

PIMCO is one of the world’s premier fixed investment managers. Since our founding in 1971 in Newport Beach, California, we have grown into a global organization with more than 2,150+ professionals united in a single purpose: creating opportunities for our clients in every environment. Our focus on excellence and our short- and long-term track record has encouraged institutions, financial advisors and millions of individual investors to entrust us with their assets. Visit PIMCO’s blog.

Subscribe To Get PIMCO Insights Delivered Directly to Your Inbox.

This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. PIMCO is a trademark of Allianz Asset Management of America L.P. in the United States and throughout the world. © 2018 PIMCO PIMCO Investments LLC, distributor, 1633 Broadway, New York, NY 10019, is a company of PIMCO.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This article is from PIMCO and is being posted with PIMCO’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or PIMCO and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


19134




Futures

Blue Line Futures - Midday Market Minute


Fed speak and earnings today. What does it mean for the markets?

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This video is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with Blue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this video are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the video. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


19131




Technical Analysis

Nasdaq - Technical Take


The majority of US equities are relatively muted today as the large cap S&P 500 spends its sixth consecutive session “waffling” along five month resistance in the 2,790 – 2,800 range.  While a number of cautionary divergences exist including the recent strength in safe haven treasuries and the negative YTD performance of select cyclicals like financials and industrials, positives can be found in the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 indices which just last week were making fresh all-time highs.  The S&P 500 is clearly underperforming, however the large cap index looks like it is gearing up for a breakout above the 2,800 resistance.  Momentum is bullish, the moving averages are all trending higher, and price, albeit somewhat choppy, has been making a series of higher lows since April.   A move above 2,800 puts in play a test of the all-time highs up at 2,873, less than 3% from last sale. 

Nasdaq's Market Intelligence Desk (MID) Team includes: 

Charles Brown is Associate Vice President on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk with over 20 years of equity capital markets experience. Charlie has extensive knowledge of equity trading on both floor and screen based marketplaces. Charlie assists with the management of The Market Intelligence Desk and works with Nasdaq listed companies providing them with insightful objective trading analysis.

Steven Brown is a Managing Director on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk with over twenty years of experience in equities. With a focus on client retention he currently covers the Financial, Energy and Media sectors.

Christopher Dearborn is a Managing Director on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk. Chris has over two decades of equity market experience including floor and screen based trading, corporate access, IPOs and asset allocation. Chris is responsible for providing timely, accurate and objective market and trading-related information to Nasdaq-listed companies.

Brian Joyce, CMT is a Managing Director on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk. Before joining Nasdaq, Brian spent 16 years as an institutional trader executing equity and options orders for both the buy side and sell side. He also provided trading ideas and wrote technical analysis commentary for an institutional research offering. Brian focuses on helping Nasdaq’s Financial, Healthcare and Transportation companies, among others, understand the trading in their stock. Brian is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT).

Michael Sokoll, CFA is a Senior Managing Director on the Nasdaq Market Intelligence Desk with over 25 years of equity market experience. In this role, he manages a team of professionals responsible for providing Nasdaq-listed companies with real-time trading analysis and objective market information.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This article is from Nasdaq and is being posted with Nasdaq’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Nasdaq and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


19130




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ディスクロージャー

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