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Futures

Blue Line Futures - Midday Market Minute (11.13.18)


Where's the bottom for crude? 

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

Futures are not suitable for all investors. The amount you may lose may be greater than your initial investment. Before trading futures, please read the CFTC Risk Disclosure. A copy and additional information are available at ibkr.com

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with Blue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in this material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


21480




Securities Lending

FIS Astec - North America: Market Brief Week Ending November 9, 2018


Top pick

Sirius XM Holdings Inc. (SIRI)

Absent from the hot stocks list since the end of September, Sirius Holdings, the US-based, subscription-driven satellite television channel provider, is back as the top pick this week as short interest volume continues to climb. Having trended downward since February, volumes began to rise during September, advancing some 26 percent since then, pushing utilization to rise more slowly at 16 percent, closing last week at 93 percent. The last week saw utilization rise through the 90 percent level, causing borrowing costs to more than double as demand intensified. The increased activity wasn’t due to the shares falling further, but reversing its recent downward trend and gaining almost 10 percent over the last two weeks. New short sellers appear to have been attracted by the possibility of further gains should the shares fall back again, making Sirius an interesting watch.

 

  1. Tilray Inc. (TLRY) – Tilray, the Canada-based provider of cannabis products to the pharmaceutical industry, is fast becoming the Tesla of the pharmaceutical sector, exhibiting significant volatility, recording highs and lows in quick succession. The prior week saw the company shares fall some 32 percent, closing the week at $99.49, but last week saw them jump skyward once more, hitting $139.60 midweek – a gain of some 40 percent – before closing at $108.99, a net gain of 10 percent. Short sellers added 3 percent to their positions, by volume, pushing utilization up by just 0.5 percent, suggesting a small increase in market supply. With short sellers, on average, likely to be sitting on substantial unrealized losses, they are likely to be hoping for some correction sooner rather than later.
  2. Enphase Energy Inc. (ENPH) – Making its debut on the hot stocks list this week is Enphase Energy, a US-based provider of energy management solutions, focused especially on the solar power industry. Short interest volume has been low from 2013 into the first half of 2018, although, at times, utilization has recoded the maximum 100 percent as supply became scarce. Since late June, volume has risen sharply, growing by some 242 percent by last week’s close, and almost doubling utilization from 54 percent to 100 percent. The share price has trended down over the last five years, from a peak of $17.39 in September 2014, to as low as $0.17 in 2017. Last week saw the shares close at $5.56, down over $1 since volume took off so sharply. With 100 percent of the shares available being borrowed, the short sellers’ expectations for further falls appear clear.
  3. NIO Inc. (NIO) – Absent for three weeks, NIO, the China-based vehicle manufacturer, colloquially known as the “Tesla of China,” is back this week as short interest volume climbs once more. In October, NIO was on the hot stocks list as short interest volume fell 22 percent; volume continued to fall from that date, but has since risen a net 22 percent to close last week within 5 percent of the prior peak. Utilization, by contrast, increased almost consistently from 52 percent to close last week at 64 percent, a proportional rise of some 22 percent. Over the same period, the shares have fallen from $7.32 to close last week at $6.77, a drop of 8 percent, rewarding those who had taken out additional short positions in this NIO American Depositary Receipt (ADR).
  4. Hi-Crush Partners LP (HCLP) – Retaining the number four slot this week is Hi-Crush, a US-based producer and marketer of monocrystalline sand for use in the oil and gas extraction industries. Last week saw short interest fall some 5 percent by volume, reversing much of the prior week’s 7 percent gain. Utilization fell three times as fast, dropping 15 percent to close last week at 79 percent, as new supply came to the market. This may have been due to new lenders being attracted by the extremely high fees being earned (which have now eased a little due to the increased availability) but could also be due to new buying from large institutional investors who considered the depressed share price a buy. The shares fell a further 6 percent during the week, closing at $6.47, more than $10 below the July peak, making these shares a brave purchase.
  5. New Age Beverages Corp. (NBEV) – Also retaining its position on the hot stocks list this week is New Age Beverages, the US-based healthy beverage company. Short interest volume increased some 18 percent over the last week, but utilization fell sharply, dropping 26 percent to close the week at 63 percent, suggesting a significant increase in market supply. This increase may be due to new lenders chasing the very high fees borrowers are paying, or large funds buying into the shares, considering them cheap. The prior week noted that, with 85 percent short interest, negative sentiment, even at $4 remained high. This week saw the shares bump up 20 percent early on, but close down a net 15 percent, closing the week at $3.60, confirming the short sellers’ ongoing strategy.

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Trading on margin is only for sophisticated investors with high risk tolerance. You may lose more than your initial investment. For additional information regarding margin loan rates, see ibkr.com/interest

 

DISCLAIMER: This document has been prepared by FIS Securities Finance LLC’s Astec Analytics business (“FIS”). The content of this document is intended for informational purposes only. FIS and its affiliates make no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. In no event shall FIS and its affiliates be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken by you or anyone else in reliance on or in connection with the information contained herein. FIS is not in any manner providing any type of brokerage or investment advisory services nor is it acting in any capacity as a broker-dealer or investment advisor and the document should not be a basis for making any investment or financial decision. You should seek the assistance of a financial or other professional advisor for advice before taking any action or making any decision based on the information contained herein.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from FIS' Astec Analytics and is being posted with FIS' Astec Analytics' permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or FIS' Astec Analytics and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


21479




Securities Lending

FIS Astec - Asia: Market Brief Week Ending November 9, 2018


Top pick

BYD Company Limited (1211)

Absent for a month, BYD, the China-based manufacturer of green energy vehicles, is back again this week as a major policy meeting took place on November 9 to discuss government support for the new energy vehicle industry. Short interest volume, which had been rising, edged up just half of 1 percent before falling back, recording a net fall of 8 percent over the last week. Utilization fell a little more slowly, at 6 percent, which suggests a small sell-off by some large institutional funds, potentially taking advantage of the rising shares, which gained almost 4 percent on the week. If the meeting brings renewed government support, the shares may head higher once more, but with over 78 percent of the shares borrowed, a significant negative expectation of the long-term value of BYD remains.

 

  1. Line Corp. (3938) – Moving up two places this week is Line Corp., the Japan-based provider of online communication, content and advertising services. Short interest volume continued to grow at the start of the week, adding some 4 percent, before falling back to close the week net down some 3 percent. Utilization dropped by 2 percent over the week, suggesting a small drop in supply available on the market, potentially as some large long funds sell more shares. The shares themselves fell a further 5 percent, closing the week at ¥3,395, down some ¥165. While this remains slightly above the 12-month low of ¥3,350 seen in October, with 86 percent of the available shares being borrowed, many short sellers remain in position in expectation of further falls for Line.
  2. Great Wall Motor Company Limited (2333) – Appearing as our top pick last week, Great Wall Motor, the China-based vehicle manufacturer, secures another spot on the list this week as short interest retreats from its 12-month peak, dropping by almost 9 percent, but bringing utilization down at a more sedate 6 percent, suggesting a contraction in supply. A contraction in supply can indicate large institutional investors selling shares, and the sell-off during the last week may have contributed to the shares falling back 8 percent from HK$5.02 to HK$4.63, reversing much of the gain achieved in the previous week. Utilization ended the week at 74 percent, which indicates that, while reduced, the negative sentiment regarding the outlook for Great Wall Motor remains at a significant level.
  3. Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (0981) – Fall back to the number five slot this week is Semiconductor, the China-based manufacturer of integrated circuits and semiconductors. The prior week saw the shares jump some 21 percent, reversing just some of the decline in value they have suffered over the last year. Closing the week at HK$7.27, the shares had fallen a net 49 percent over the last 12 months, up from the prior week where a 58 percent loss had been recorded. However, last week saw Semiconductor give most of that gain back, closing the week at HK$6.35, down a net 13 percent on the week. Short sellers had closed out less than 2 percent of their positions, but utilization fell three times as fast to close the week at 81 percent, suggesting that some long investors were seeing the depressed share price as a buying opportunity, ignoring the weight of short interest stacked against the company.

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Trading on margin is only for sophisticated investors with high risk tolerance. You may lose more than your initial investment. For additional information regarding margin loan rates, see ibkr.com/interest

 

DISCLAIMER: This document has been prepared by FIS Securities Finance LLC’s Astec Analytics business (“FIS”). The content of this document is intended for informational purposes only. FIS and its affiliates make no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. In no event shall FIS and its affiliates be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken by you or anyone else in reliance on or in connection with the information contained herein. FIS is not in any manner providing any type of brokerage or investment advisory services nor is it acting in any capacity as a broker-dealer or investment advisor and the document should not be a basis for making any investment or financial decision. You should seek the assistance of a financial or other professional advisor for advice before taking any action or making any decision based on the information contained herein.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from FIS' Astec Analytics and is being posted with FIS' Astec Analytics' permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or FIS' Astec Analytics and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


21478




Securities Lending

FIS Astec - EMEA: Market Brief Week Ending November 9, 2018


Top pick

Logitech International SA (LOGN)

Last appearing a month ago, Logitech, the Swiss-based computer peripherals manufacturer, had made an appearance on the hot stocks list as short interest had begun to build, signaling an expectation that the shares may be reaching a ceiling. Having fallen largely consistently through 2018, volume had reached a 12-month low at the start of October, before turning upward. Short sellers had been reducing their exposure as the shares advanced from around CHF 34 a year ago to peak at CHF 48.65 toward the end of August. Short sellers have increased their positions by more than 450 percent since October 1, returning to levels not seen since February, as the shares began to fall. Closing last week at CHF 36.87, the shares have fallen some 24 percent since the short sellers began expanding their positions.

 

  1. Meyer Burger Technology AG (MBTN) – Moving up one place from last week’s number two slot, Meyer Burger, the Switzerland-based semiconductor manufacturer specializing in the solar power industry, returns this week as short interest volume falls by over 8 percent. However, the fall in short interest volume has left the utilization level stationary at 100 percent, indicating that the closure of those short positions was likely forced on the short sellers as the lenders sold their holdings, rather than the short sellers banking their gains in the belief the shares were not going to fall further. The shares had advanced almost 30 percent by midweek, before falling back to close the week up 22 percent. The price bump potentially prompted the sale of shares by the lenders, potentially in the belief that they should close out their positions before the shares fall back again.
  2. TechnipFMC plc (FTI) – Falling back one place this week is FMC, the oil services company formed by the merger of Technip and FMC. Short sellers had been expanding their positions fairly steadily since July, but peaked at the end of last week. Last week saw short interest volume fall by 6 percent, with utilization dropping just over twice as fast at 13 percent, suggesting that supply had expanded, commonly caused by large institutional investors increasing their holdings. Technip shares had bounced up a little in the previous week, and advanced again in the early part of last week, rising $0.10, before falling back to close the week at $25.65, down a net $1 or 4 percent, a new 12-month low. With some long investors buying in, and short sellers reducing their exposure, it may be that a floor could be near.
  3. Purplebricks Group PLC (PURP) – Appearing as our top pick last week, Purplebricks, the online estate agency that operates across the UK, squeezes onto the list again this week, albeit in the number five slot. Short interest volume increased last week, having been in decline as some short sellers banked their gains. Volume grew by 16 percent, suggesting that short sellers were once again in the game, expecting the shares, which fell a further 12 percent last week, to fall even further. Despite this, large institutional investors still appeared to be buying into Purplebricks, forcing utilization to fall 16 percent in direct contrast to the growth in volume being borrowed. Some are clearly expecting the company to turn around the 64 percent fall in value since January, while others are expecting the price to continue below last week’s close, a new 12-month low of £1.75.

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Trading on margin is only for sophisticated investors with high risk tolerance. You may lose more than your initial investment. For additional information regarding margin loan rates, see ibkr.com/interest

DISCLAIMER: This document has been prepared by FIS Securities Finance LLC’s Astec Analytics business (“FIS”). The content of this document is intended for informational purposes only. FIS and its affiliates make no representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. In no event shall FIS and its affiliates be liable to you or anyone else for any decision made or action taken by you or anyone else in reliance on or in connection with the information contained herein. FIS is not in any manner providing any type of brokerage or investment advisory services nor is it acting in any capacity as a broker-dealer or investment advisor and the document should not be a basis for making any investment or financial decision. You should seek the assistance of a financial or other professional advisor for advice before taking any action or making any decision based on the information contained herein.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This material is from FIS' Astec Analytics and is being posted with FIS' Astec Analytics' permission. The views expressed in this material are solely those of the author and/or FIS' Astec Analytics and IBKR is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the material. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


21477




Securities Lending

Interactive Brokers - ETF Shorts vs Non-Shorts


Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. For more information read the “Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options”. Trading on margin is only for sophisticated investors with high risk tolerance. You may lose more than your initial investment. For additional information regarding margin loan rates, see ibkr.com/interest

The analysis in this material is provided for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IBKR to buy, sell or hold such investments. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


21476




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