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Futures

FX Rundown


Euro (September)

Session close: Settled at 1.16955, up 9.5 ticks

Fundamentals: Last week, the ECB signaled they will taper bond purchases in the fourth quarter and completely wind down QE after December. However, they do not plan on raising interest rates until the second half of 2019 and the Euro responded poorly. Price action in the expiring June contract traded to a low of 1.15445, a 2.6% drop from the 1.1858 spike high. The newly front month September contract trades about half a penny higher than the June. Upon a new week and a marginal bounce back that appears firmer due to the contract role, the extreme negative sentiment has take a short-term breather. In fact, considering that Germany and Chancellor Merkel now face a collapse within their newly formed coalition over immigration, the Euro has held well over the last 48 hours of trade. Additional support has come from the Dollar on the heels of escalating trade tensions between the U.S and China. After a jam packed economic calendar last week, this week gets off to a slower start. Atlanta Fed President Bostic spoke this afternoon and said he still sees only three hikes this year. Last week, the Fed’s Dot Plot pointed to two more hikes in 2018. San Francisco Fed President (soon to be NY Fed President) Williams said this afternoon that the U.S economy is in great shape and inflation is near their target. This week, the ECB is hosting a forum in Portugal, so we will hear from ECB President Draghi a few times. Tomorrow, St. Louis Fed President Bullard speaks at 6:00 am CT and U.S Building Permits and Housing Starts are due at 7:30 am CT.

Technicals: The September contact traded to a low of 1.1622 and bouncing a bit to start the week. The near-term line in the sand is this low aligns with the May 29th low at 1.1613. However, on the continuous chart, there is room down to our rare major four-star support at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Yen (September)

Session close: Settled at .91065, up 8 ticks

Fundamentals: The Yen is attempting to stabilize as the U.S Dollar, equity markets and yields have all stalled their climb at various points over the last 48 hours of trading due to escalating trade tensions between the U.S and China. Last week, the Bank of Japan stayed mute on tightening policy, keeping any expectations at bay for the foreseeably near future after downgrading their inflation outlook. Economic data in Japan has not been all that bad though, however, none of that matters as the country finds itself knee deep in ultra-loose monetary policy. Last night, Trade Balance data showed stronger than expected demand on Imports and Exports. Tonight, there is a 30-year JGB auction and tomorrow we get the policy minutes from the previous BoJ meeting. As long as trade tensions remain in the picture and we don’t see them disappearing overnight, the Yen should hold ground at a minimum.

Technicals: Price action is attempting to round out a bottom against the May 21st low. Selling has not been very sharp over the last week, though it has been steady. The trade tension fundamentals open the door for a potential pop at any time, however, hope is not a risk management strategy. We maintain that we find it difficult to get excited about the Yen while it is below ...  Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Aussie (September)

Session close: Settled at .7418, down 34 ticks

Fundamentals: The Aussie has fallen out technically and fundamentally. First, trade relations between Australia and their number one trade partner China have taken a poor turn due to regulation on what Australia has called “meddling”. Second, the Dollar gained strength after projecting four rate hikes this year but a much weaker Euro on the heels of the ECB boosted the Dollar against many trading pairs. Lastly and most importantly, escalating trade tensions between the U.S and China has left a dark cloud of global uncertainty and the Aussie, a commodity currency, has taken one of the worst hits. The good news for the Aussie though is that their economic data has turned a corner over recent weeks and signals that a rate hike may not be too far down the road. Tonight, we will get insight on this with the RBA’s Minutes due at 8:30 pm CT. House Price Index data is also due at that time.

Technicals: On a continuous basis, the Aussie sits only a few ticks above the May 9th low for the June contract. Below here, the Aussie would be at the lowest level in a year. The next support level we have is major three-star support at ...  Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

 

Canadian (September)

Session close: Settled at .75785, down 21 ticks

Fundamentals: The Canadian is trading at the lowest level in a year as poor data and trade uncertainty has hampered the currency for the better part of 2018. There is nothing in the near term that signals the Canadian would turn things around overnight. However, the Bank of Canada could raise rates in July and this would likely buoy the currency as this nears.

Technicals: The currency has traded sharply lower to new lows for three straight sessions. The outlook is bleak but technical support does come in at .7555. A failure to hold this level opens the door to ...  Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Visit our website at www.bluelinefutures.com to open an account and stay up to date with our research.

Bill Baruch is President and founder of Blue Line Futures. Bill has more than a decade of trading experience. Working with clients he focuses on developing trading strategies that present a clear objective for both long and short-term trading approaches. He believes that in order to properly execute a trading strategy, there must be a well-balanced approach to risk and reward.

Prior to Blue Line, Bill was the Chief Market Strategist at iiTRADER which followed running a trade desk at Lind Waldock and MF Global.

Bill is a featured expert on CNBC, Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal as well as other top tier publications. 

Blue Line Futures is a leading futures and commodities brokerage firm located at the Chicago Board of Trade. We work with clients that range from institutional to professional to novice and from self-directed to broker-assisted. No matter what type of trader you are, our mission is simple; to put the client first. This means bringing YOU strong customer service, consistent and reliable research and state of the art technology. 

This article is from Blue Line Futures and is being posted with iBlue Line Futures’ permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Blue Line Futures and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


18576




Macro

GUOSEN Closing Bell (June 15)


MARKET

The Shanghai Composite Index dropped to its lowest since September 2016, just one step from the 3000 points mark as US prepared to impose tariffs on $50 billion goods. Coal and Bank sector led the gains, while Telecom and Military sectors led the falls. Combined turnover for both markets was CNY 408.5 bn, up 28.8% dod.

 

 

Close

% Change

Vol (bn CNY)

%YTD

Shanghai

3021.90

-0.73

162.20

-8.63

Shenzhen

9943.13

-1.40

193.96

-9.94

CSI 300

3753.43

-0.53

109.53

-6.88

ChiNext

1641.66

-1.89

63.34

-6.33

 

Sector

Top 1

Led by

Top 2

Led by

Upward-leading

Coal

600546

Bank

601009

Downward-leading

Telecom

600130

Military

600855

 

NEWS

*Chinese medical tourism exacerbates shortage of HPV vaccine. A lack of human papillomavirus vaccine in China has led hundreds of thousands of women to seek treatment in Hong Kong and neighbouring Asian countries, causing price increases and shortages that sparked a protest this month.The dearth of vaccines highlights potential disruptions caused by the growing popularity of medical tourism among more affluent Chinese people, due to drug approval delays that mean treatments are often unavailable in China years after launches elsewhere. (Financial Times)

* China’s Yuan to Get Hit With $20 Billion Dividend Onslaught. China’s currency has had a bumpier ride in the past several weeks than it’s seen since it stabilized against the dollar in 2017, and further turbulence may be in store as companies prepare to make a welter of dividend payments abroad. (Bloomberg)

 

FUND FLOW

Click here for more information about Guosen.

This article is from Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and is being posted with Guosen Securities Co., Ltd.’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Guosen Securities Co., Ltd. and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

 


18575




Technical Analysis

Warrior Trading - $MA | Technical Breakdown


Shares of Mastercard Inc ($MA) are setting up for a bounce following this bullish bull flag pattern on the daily chart. You can see shares had a nice run on higher relative volume before pulling back to the 20-day moving average.

What we will want to see is shares break through the descending resistance line on strong volume for a breakout entry where we will want to see prices move up quickly to the recent highs of $204 with a possibility of hitting $205 or higher.

Taking a look at the price action on the 30-minute chart above you can see the defined trendline and the base of support at $198. You can use this level as a stop if you do take this long.

The key thing to look for in bull flag breakouts, is the defined trendline and high relative volume on the breakout.

Keep this one on your radar for a potential breakout over the next day or two.

---

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This article is from Warrior Trading and is being posted with Warrior Trading’s permission. The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and/or Warrior Trading and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


18574




Macro

Real Vision TV - The Risks of the Modern Market Structure


The esteemed Australian hedge fund advisor James Aitken sits down with legendary financial writer Jim Grant for an insightful conversation about central bank stimulus, the European financial system, China’s future, short selling, and compares recent European crises to the current state of the European economy and markets.

 

Real Vision Publications delivers highly curated, big thinking and actionable investment research from the world’s top financial minds.

Offering you quality financial research that’s hard to find in an industry riddled with sensationalism and consensus-led content. No bias, no sponsors, just honest, independent insight from thought leaders.

Teaming up with 30 of the finest independent thinkers, Real Vision Publications gives you access to research, often exclusive to elite investors, exposing you to diverse insights and original thinking. 

Real Vision Publications brings you bi-weekly research reports, with over 100 research reports per year covering all aspects of financial markets, all housed on a dedicated platform with download and print features.

With so many quality research reports at your fingertips, you’ll be able to avoid investing pitfalls and be a sharper, smarter investor.

Disclaimer: This content is from Real Vision Publications and is being posted with Real Vision Publications’ permission. The views expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the author and/or Real Vision Publications and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the video. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.

Information posted on IBKR Traders’ Insight that is provided by third-parties and not by Interactive Brokers does NOT constitute a recommendation by Interactive Brokers that you should contract for the services of that third party. Third-party participants who contribute to IBKR Traders’ Insight are independent of Interactive Brokers and Interactive Brokers does not make any representations or warranties concerning the services offered, their past or future performance, or the accuracy of the information provided by the third party. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This video is from Real Vision TV and is being posted with Real Vision TV’s permission. The views expressed in this video are solely those of the author and/or Real Vision TV and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the video. This material is for information only and is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad-based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation by IB to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


18548




azioni

Morningstar - Why Vanguard's Approach to Equity Factor Strategies Works - With Adam McCullough, Manager Research Analyst


Antonio Picca says Vanguard's strategy can be good for investors who can handle outperformance and have a high tolerance for tracking error.

Morningstar provides a constant source for investment ideas with our comprehensive analyst reports on equities, ETFs, and credit ratings from more than 100 analysts. U.S. Interactive Brokers clients can sign up for a free trial of these reports in Account Management.

This video is from Morningstar and is being posted with Morningstar's permission. The information provided in this video is from Morningstar and IB is not endorsing or recommending any investment or trading discussed in the article. This material is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. To the extent that this material discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends or other broad based economic or political conditions, it should not be construed as research or investment advice. To the extent that it includes references to specific securities, commodities, currencies, or other instruments, those references do not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold such security. This material does not and is not intended to take into account the particular financial conditions, investment objectives or requirements of individual customers. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, as necessary, seek professional advice.


18523




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Informative

Eventuali pareri e suggerimenti sono bene accetti. In caso di domande in merito a IB Traders' Insight, si prega di contattare ibti@ibkr.com.

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Tutte le informazioni pubblicate dai dipendenti di IB o dalle società affiliate si basano su informazioni ritenute affidabili. Tuttavia, né IB né le sue affiliate ne garantiscono la completezza, accuratezza o adeguatezza. IB non offre alcuna garanzia né assicurazione delle performance passate o future di alcuno strumento finanziario. Tramite la pubblicazione di materiale su IB Traders' Insight, IB non intende affermare che il particolare strumento finanziario o strategia di trading sia adatto a tutti.